https://fortune.com/2022/11/17/declining-birth-rate-labor-shortage-workforce-population-glassdoor-indeed-report/ * Subscribe Now * Rankings * Magazine * Newsletters * Podcasts * Video On Demand * Fortune Live Media * Fortune Connect * Fortune Education * Fortune Well * Fortune Crypto * Fortune Recommends * rankings + See All Rankings + Fortune 500 + Global 500 + 40 Under 40 + GREAT PLACE TO WORK LISTS + Best MBA Programs * Magazine * Newsletters * Podcasts * more + Video On Demand + Fortune Live Media + Fortune Connect + Fortune Education + Fortune Well + Fortune Crypto + Fortune Recommends SEARCH SIGN INSubscribe Now Great ResignationCompensationReturn to WorkCareersLabor UnionsSuccess Stories Success *labor shortage The world's baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years, major employment firms predict BYAlena Botros November 17, 2022, 7:01 PM UTC Photo of a mother and child.Photo of a mother and child. Demographic changes could mean a long-term workforce shortage. Miguel Pereira--Getty Images "Demographic shifts" can mean many things. The composition of a body of people--median age, ethnic makeup, and more--all fall into the category. But in the context of the labor shortage that has gripped the world economy since the pandemic began, it has coincided with one of Elon Musk's big worries: The world isn't having enough babies. He has previously said the world's declining birth rate is "one of the biggest risks to civilization," which will "crumble" if the world doesn't have more children. Now two major employment websites, Indeed and Glassdoor, are looking forward to 2023's workforce (and well beyond that) to predict whether the "demographic shifts" of the last few years will continue. In short, yes--and it means the labor shortage is here to stay for a while. Using World Bank projections and analyzing employment trends across several countries, economists for both job sites found the number of people of working age (15 to 65) is set to decline in the coming years. That means hiring will be more difficult and workers will have more leverage over employers. The decline in people of working age will partly stem from an aging population, the number of deaths exceeding births, and reduced immigration. For example, the U.S. and U.K.'s population growth will be driven solely by net migration. And in the U.K., deaths are projected to exceed births by 2025. The U.S., U.K., France, and Canada are all projected to see their working-age population decline by more than 3% from 2026 to 2036. Meanwhile, during that same period, Germany is projected to see a decline of more than 7%--driven by its aging population and migration trends that haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the report said Japan's demographic prospects are "particularly stark," with its population forecasted to fall from 128 million in 2010 to below 100 million by 2050--and the share of those ages 65 and older will soar. "Without sustained immigration, an increase in labor productivity, or a focus on attracting workers on the sidelines of the labor force, these countries simply won't have enough workers to fill long-term demand for years to come," Indeed and Glassdoor's chief economist wrote in a foreword to the report. So despite warnings of a looming recession, and a potential decline in "employers' hiring appetites," finding candidates will be a challenge--giving way for workers to demand higher pay, stronger benefits, and flexible schedules. "In a moment like this, with so many headlines about layoffs, it perhaps feels a little bit weird to talk about long-term hiring challenges," Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor, told Bloomberg. "But the reality is, it is precisely in moments like this when it's easy to lose the trees for the forest. It's easy to conflate the near-term cyclical with long-term structural challenges in the labor market." But a declining birth rate isn't necessarily bad news despite the hiring challenges it may present. It's often a sign of economic progress: Women have more opportunities to choose their own path in life, whether it's prioritizing school, a career, or a life without children at all. While some demographers worry alongside Musk that this could create a workforce crisis down the line, it doesn't have to come to that if society adjusts properly. This may vary from country to country depending on their economies, but it's at least the case in the U.S., as Christine Percheski, associate professor of sociology at Northwestern University, told Insider last year, the country would need to make structural adjustments like creating new policies that accommodate changes in population size. Besides--while U.S. birth rates hit a record low during the pandemic, a new study from the Economic Bureau of Research found that there was a COVID "baby bump" after all. Whether this will hold steady is unclear, but it shouldn't matter for the workforce if we shift our mindsets to view a lack of labor as more of a new norm than a shortage and adjust accordingly. That might begin with paying attention to employees' changing wants and needs. They care more about a company's culture and its diversity and inclusivity initiatives, the report found. So to stay competitive in a challenging labor market, employers have to keep up with workers' demands. "Beyond a competitive wage, offering employees top-notch benefits, positive, engaging company culture, and commitment to DEI initiatives will remain incredibly important to help win talent in a competitive and changing labor market," the report said. Our new weekly Impact Report newsletter will examine how ESG news and trends are shaping the roles and responsibilities of today's executives--and how they can best navigate those challenges. Subscribe here. Most Popular * Well Christina Applegate's early MS symptoms make it clear that the disease can be mistaken for everyday aches. Here's what... [yH5BAEAAAA][Christina-] November 15, 2022 BY ----------------------------------------------------------------- * Success The world's baby shortfall is so bad that the labor shortage will last for years, major employment firms predict [yH5BAEAAAA][GettyImage] November 17, 2022 BYAlena Botros ----------------------------------------------------------------- * Tech Elon Musk orders all coders to show up at Twitter HQ Friday afternoon, after data suggests 1,000 to 1,200 employees... [yH5BAEAAAA][GettyImage] November 18, 2022 BYKylie Robison ----------------------------------------------------------------- Rankings * 40 Under 40 * 100 Best Companies * Fortune 500 * Global 500 * Most Powerful Women * World's Greatest Leaders * World's Most Admired Companies * See All Rankings Sections * Finance * Leadership * Success * Tech * Asia * Europe * Environment * Fortune Crypto * Health * Well * Retail * Lifestyle * Politics * Newsletters * Magazine * Features * Commentary * MPW * Conferences * Personal Finance Customer Support * Frequently Asked Questions * Customer Service Portal * Privacy Policy * Terms of Use * Single Issues for Purchase * International Print Commercial Services * FORTUNE Knowledge Group * FORTUNE Branded Content * Fortune Data Store * Fortune Conferences * Advertising About Us * About Us * Work at Fortune * Behavioral Advertising Notice * Terms and Conditions (c) 2022 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. All rights reserved. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions. * * * * *