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Computer Science > Hardware Architecture

arXiv:2206.14007 (cs)
[Submitted on 28 Jun 2022]

Title:The Importance of (Exponentially More) Computing Power

Authors:Neil C. Thompson, Shuning Ge, Gabriel F. Manso
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    Abstract: Denizens of Silicon Valley have called Moore's Law "the
    most important graph in human history," and economists have found
    that Moore's Law-powered I.T. revolution has been one of the most
    important sources of national productivity growth. But data
    substantiating these claims tend to either be abstracted - for
    example by examining spending on I.T., rather than I.T. itself -
    or anecdotal. In this paper, we assemble direct quantitative
    evidence of the impact that computing power has had on five
    domains: two computing bellwethers (Chess and Go), and three
    economically important applications (weather prediction, protein
    folding, and oil exploration). Computing power explains 49%-94%
    of the performance improvements in these domains. But whereas
    economic theory typically assumes a power-law relationship
    between inputs and outputs, we find that an exponential increase
    in computing power is needed to get linear improvements in these
    outcomes. This helps clarify why the exponential growth of
    computing power from Moore's Law has been so important for
    progress, and why performance improvements across many domains
    are becoming economically tenuous as Moore's Law breaks down.

Subjects: Hardware Architecture (cs.AR); Computers and Society
          (cs.CY); Performance (cs.PF)
Cite as:  arXiv:2206.14007 [cs.AR]
          (or arXiv:2206.14007v1 [cs.AR] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.14007
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

Submission history

From: Neil Thompson [view email]
[v1] Tue, 28 Jun 2022 13:50:04 UTC (3,450 KB)
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