https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/06/23/most-of-the-worlds-grain-is-not-eaten-by-humans

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Graphic detail | Global grain use

Most of the world's grain is not eaten by humans

Nearly half of all grain is either burned as fuel or eaten by animals

Jun 23rd 2022
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The yellow and blue of Ukraine's flag evokes the country's bountiful
wheat beneath a cloudless sky. Today, smoke from artillery has turned
the skies grey. Tractors have been hauling heavy weapons, not grain,
and a Russian naval blockade has prevented past harvests from
reaching their destinations. The loss of this output has caused
already high grain prices to surge. The World Food Programme warns
that 47m people are at risk of hunger as a result.

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Despite talks with Turkey over shipping Ukrainian grain, Russia is
unlikely to let exports pass through the Black Sea. Ukrainian grain
is difficult to reroute by rail. If Ukraine remains cut off from
world markets, it might seem like simple maths to infer that
production elsewhere must expand to keep the world fed. But in fact,
more than enough grain is already grown to meet humanity's needs. The
problem is that 43% is either burned as biofuel or used to feed
animals. That is equal to six times the grain output of Ukraine and
Russia combined.

Less than half of the world's grain harvest is eaten by people. Take
wheat, the most important crop grown by the two warring countries. In
2019, the latest year for which data are available, Russia and
Ukraine jointly produced nearly 103m tonnes, less than the 129m
tonnes fed to animals. Another 22m tonnes were turned into biofuel.
The belligerents' second-biggest crop, maize, was even less likely to
end up on a plate: humans ate just 13% of global output. Because
Russia and Ukraine produce little rice, the total share of their
grain output eaten by people was just 37%, below the global average
of 46%.

Around the world, grain production went up by 17% in the 2010s,
exceeding population growth by six percentage points. Consumption per
person, however, remained flat, even as many went hungry.

Instead, the extra grain was put to other uses. Nearly one-tenth was
converted into biofuel, which is used mainly to power cars. But the
lion's share went to animals. In 2019 pigs ate 431m tonnes of grain,
45% more than the people of China did, according to our calculations.
Overall, from 2010 to 2019 the amount of grain used for animal feed
rose from 770m tonnes per year to 987m, as the world's pasturelands
shrank and appetite for meat grew.

Some grain by-products, such as maize husks, are unsuitable for human
food. And feeding grain to animals does generate food for people
indirectly, in the form of milk, meat and eggs. However, this process
is highly wasteful. For every 100 calories of grain fed to a cow,
just three emerge as beef. Along with other feed crops and pasture,
rearing animals also uses land that could produce human food.

In response to the war, governments are mulling policies to get a
greater share of grains into grub. Germany and Belgium may ease
biofuel mandates, and China has warned that it will "strictly
control" the conversion of maize into ethanol. But with fuel prices
soaring, the International Energy Agency nevertheless projects
biofuel demand to rise by 5% in 2022.

In the long run, the only way to avoid such trade-offs is to get
energy from other sources--ideally using renewables. That would
benefit future harvests, endangered by climate change, too. But for
now, reducing waste and turning wheat and maize into bread instead of
animal feed is probably the best remedy. Ironically, one of the most
effective ways for individual consumers to alleviate the world's
grain shortage is to eat more grain--at the expense of meat.#

Read more of our recent coverage of the Ukraine crisis

Sources: UN FAO; Observatory for Economic Complexity; "Human
appropriation of land for food", P. Alexander et al., 2016;
"Redefining agricultural yields", E. Cassidy et al., 2013; "Biomass
use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from
global livestock systems", M. Herrero et al., 2013; The Economist

This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print
edition under the headline "Against the grain"

The right way to fix the energy crisisThe right way to fix the energy
crisis

From the June 25th 2022 edition

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