https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01238-5 Skip to main content Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript. Advertisement Advertisement Nature * View all journals * Search * My Account Login * Explore content * About the journal * Publish with us Subscribe * Sign up for alerts * RSS feed 1. nature 2. news 3. article * NEWS * 04 May 2022 Eating one-fifth less beef could halve deforestation Model suggests that switching to microbial 'meat' can cut carbon emissions. * Giorgia Guglielmi 1. Giorgia Guglielmi View author publications You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar * Twitter * Facebook * Email You have full access to this article via your institution. Download PDF Cows stand in a pen near Fort Stockton, Texas. Beef farming drives deforestation and is a major source of methane emissions.Credit: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Replacing just 20% of global beef consumption with a meat substitute within the next 30 years could halve deforestation and the carbon emissions associated with it, finds a modelling study. The findings, published in Nature on 4 May^1, come one month after the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that humanity is nowhere near on track to limit global warming to 1.5 oC above pre-industrial levels. Beef farming is a top driver of deforestation worldwide, and cattle raised for beef are a major source of methane, a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Replacing beef with meat alternatives could reduce some of the food production's environmental footprint, but it won't solve the climate crisis, says study lead author Florian Humpenoder, a sustainability scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. "It should not be seen as a silver bullet," he says. [d41586-022] Meet the food pioneer whose meat replacements are rocking the gravy boat Previous research has shown that replacing beef with a meatless alternative called mycoprotein can have beneficial effects on the environment. Produced in steel tanks by fermenting a soil-dwelling fungus with glucose and other nutrients as a food source, mycoprotein is a meat substitute that made its debut in the United Kingdom in the 1980s under the brand name Quorn and is now readily available in many countries. Humpenoder and his colleagues are the first to estimate the environmental effects of partially replacing beef with mycoprotein over time, says Franziska Gaupp, who studies food systems at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Previous analyses didn't take into account changes in population growth, food demand and other socio-economic factors. The team used a mathematical model that considered increases in population growth, income and livestock demand between 2020 and 2050. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the global increase in beef consumption would require the expansion of pasture areas for grazing and of cropland for feed production, which would double the annual rate of deforestation globally. Methane emissions and agricultural water use would also increase. Meat substitution: Line chart showing future environmental effects of replacing beef consumption with microbial protein. Source: Ref. 1 Replacing 20% of the world's per-capita beef consumption with mycoprotein by 2050 would reduce methane emissions by 11% and halve the annual deforestation and associated emissions, compared with the business-as-usual scenario (see 'Meat substitution'). The mitigating effects on deforestation are so great because, under this scenario, global demand for beef does not increase, so there is no need to expand pasture areas or cropland for feeding cattle, Humpenoder says. The beneficial effects on deforestation eventually plateau out. Swapping 50% of the beef consumed per person for mycoprotein would result in a more than 80% reduction in deforestation and carbon emissions, and replacing 80% of beef with mycoprotein would eliminate about 90% of forest loss. [d41586-022] Will cell-based meat ever be a dinner staple? All levels of substitution would result in relatively minor changes in agricultural water use, the researchers found. That's because the water required to grow crops for feeding cattle would go towards growing other types of crop, including those for human consumption, Humpenoder says. Global assessments such as the one carried out by Humpenoder's team could help to highlight more-sustainable ways to produce food, says Hanna Tuomisto, who studies sustainable food systems at the University of Helsinki. Tuomisto notes that producing mycoprotein can require more electricity than producing beef, so researchers should consider the environmental impacts of producing extra power. She also points out that replacing beef with mycoprotein means that some by-products of cattle farming, such as leather and milk, might then be made in alternative ways that have environmental impacts. "This study is a great start," Gaupp says. Future research, she adds, should look at the environmental effects of replacing beef with other types of meat alternative, such as laboratory-grown meat or plant-based alternatives. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01238-5 References 1. Humpenoder, F. et al. Nature https://doi.org/10.1038/ s41586-022-04629-w (2022). Article Google Scholar Download references Related Articles * [d41586-022] Will cell-based meat ever be a dinner staple? * [d41586-022] Sizzling interest in lab-grown meat belies lack of basic research * [d41586-022] Meet the food pioneer whose meat replacements are rocking the gravy boat * [d41586-022] Climate policy models need to get real about people -- here's how Subjects * Agriculture * Climate change Latest on: Agriculture Africa's forgotten crops could offset growing food insecurity Correspondence 03 MAY 22 Act now before Ukraine war plunges millions into malnutrition Act now before Ukraine war plunges millions into malnutrition Comment 21 APR 22 Your morning coffee is served up by the birds and the bees Your morning coffee is served up by the birds and the bees Research Highlight 04 APR 22 Climate change This Arctic town wants to make renewable energy work at the top of the world This Arctic town wants to make renewable energy work at the top of the world News 06 MAY 22 Climate simulations: recognize the 'hot model' problem Climate simulations: recognize the 'hot model' problem Comment 04 MAY 22 Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein Projected environmental benefits of replacing beef with microbial protein Article 04 MAY 22 Nature Careers Jobs * Assistant or Associate Professor Tenure Track or Tenured University of Southern California (USC) Los Angeles, CA, United States * The Johns Hopkins Department of Biological Chemistry- New Director (Chair) Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Baltimore, MD, United States * Tenure Track Assistant or Associate Professor Lewis Katz School of Medicine, Temple University Philadelphia, PA, United States * Postdoctoral Associate in Neurosurgery Duke Department of Neurosurgery Durham, NC, United States You have full access to this article via your institution. Download PDF Related Articles * [d41586-022] Will cell-based meat ever be a dinner staple? * [d41586-022] Sizzling interest in lab-grown meat belies lack of basic research * [d41586-022] Meet the food pioneer whose meat replacements are rocking the gravy boat * [d41586-022] Climate policy models need to get real about people -- here's how Subjects * Agriculture * Climate change Advertisement Sign up to Nature Briefing An essential round-up of science news, opinion and analysis, delivered to your inbox every weekday. Email address [ ] [ ] Yes! Sign me up to receive the daily Nature Briefing email. I agree my information will be processed in accordance with the Nature and Springer Nature Limited Privacy Policy. Sign up * Close Nature Briefing Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter -- what matters in science, free to your inbox daily. Email address [ ] Sign up [ ] I agree my information will be processed in accordance with the Nature and Springer Nature Limited Privacy Policy. Close Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing Explore content * Research articles * News * Opinion * Research Analysis * Careers * Books & Culture * Podcasts * Videos * Current issue * Browse issues * Collections * Subjects * Follow us on Facebook * Follow us on Twitter * Subscribe * Sign up for alerts * RSS feed About the journal * Journal Staff * About the Editors * Journal Information * Our publishing models * Editorial Values Statement * Journal Metrics * Awards * Contact * Editorial policies * History of Nature * Send a news tip Publish with us * For Authors * For Referees * Submit manuscript Search Search articles by subject, keyword or author [ ] Show results from [All journals] Search Advanced search Quick links * Explore articles by subject * Find a job * Guide to authors * Editorial policies Nature (Nature) ISSN 1476-4687 (online) ISSN 0028-0836 (print) nature.com sitemap Nature portfolio * About us * Press releases * Press office * Contact us * * * Discover content * Journals A-Z * Articles by subject * Nano * Protocol Exchange * Nature Index Publishing policies * Nature portfolio policies * Open access Author & Researcher services * Reprints & permissions * Research data * Language editing * Scientific editing * Nature Masterclasses * Nature Research Academies * Research Solutions Libraries & institutions * Librarian service & tools * Librarian portal * Open research * Recommend to library Advertising & partnerships * Advertising * Partnerships & Services * Media kits * Branded content Career development * Nature Careers * Nature Conferences * Nature events Regional websites * Nature Africa * Nature China * Nature India * Nature Italy * Nature Japan * Nature Korea * Nature Middle East Legal & Privacy * Privacy Policy * Use of cookies * Manage cookies/Do not sell my data * Legal notice * Accessibility statement * Terms & Conditions * California Privacy Statement Springer Nature (c) 2022 Springer Nature Limited