https://eclecticlight.co/2022/03/06/war-in-ukraine-marshall-mud-is-winning-again/ Skip to content [eclecticlight] The Eclectic Light Company Macs, painting, and more Main navigation Menu * Downloads * M1 Macs * Mac Problems * Mac articles * Art * Macs * Painting hoakley March 6, 2022 General, Life, Macs, Technology War in Ukraine: Marshall Mud is winning again No one with an ounce of humanity can look on at this barbaric slaughter of Ukrainians without wanting it to end immediately. This article is about one plan which seems to have gone badly wrong for the Russians, and is only likely to get worse until it becomes a humanitarian catastrophe. In the first few days of the war, a huge column of Russian vehicles sped past what should have been a poignant reminder of past disasters, the still-radioactive remains of Chernobyl nuclear power station, turned right and headed south towards the capital Kyiv. At the same time, Russian paratroopers made a major air assault on Antonov Airport at Hostomel, close to the north-west of Kyiv. Plan A became apparent: a lightning assault on the capital, replace the legitimate leaders of Ukraine with a puppet regime, to be secured by the forces arriving imminently by road from the north. That Russian plan failed on three counts. First, Ukrainian forces fought tooth and nail to regain Hostomel, ensuring those Russian paratroopers never reached their objective and weren't even able to defend the airport to allow reinforcement. Second, the people of Kyiv clearly weren't going to roll over and let any of this happen. But worst of all, that huge column of vehicles still hasn't reached the northern outskirts of the city, well over a week after they had crossed the border from Belarus on 24 February. At first Western commentators were baffled. Were the vehicles in that forty-mile long column regrouping, perhaps? It took the expert interpretation of @TrentTelenko and others to explain what had gone wrong: a combination of poor vehicle maintenance weakening tyres, widespread use of poor quality Chinese tyres, breakdowns, fuel shortage, and what the Russians term rasputitsa (rasputitsa), in Ukrainian bezdorizhzhya (Bezdorizhzhia). This has also been exacerbated ingeniously by Ukrainian troops, who have seized the opportunity to flood much of the ground they have yet to cross, putting many of the vehicles up a creek without a paddle. Rasputitsa refers to the two periods in the year in which the land of the steppe, in particular, turns into mud: after harvest with autumn rains before the winter freeze, and at this time of the year as the winter's snow thaws. Away from well-made roads, travel becomes all but impossible as the mud runs deep enough to engulf vehicle axles. As you can imagine, with a blown tyre or two and dwindling fuel, such deep mud can bring any vehicle to a grinding halt. chelmonskimarketJozef Marian Chelmonski (1849-1914), Market (date not known), oil on canvas, 57.5 x 67.5 cm, Kosciuszko Foundation, New York, NY. Wikimedia Commons. So far, accounts of what has probably been happening to that column of vehicles haven't considered the personnel inside them. With fuel in short supply and rations running out, this is no time to be static in temperatures around freezing. Vehicle heating relies on fuel; human internal heat relies on food. You don't have to live on half rations for many days before you realise how important a good meal is in keeping you warm. There's also the problem of drinking water: although the ground is sodden, you can't drink mud. You don't need as much fluid intake in cold as you do in heat, but we still don't live long without adequate water intake. Rasputitsa conditions have a long history of causing military disasters. They hampered Napoleon's army in 1812 when he was invading Russia, and slowed Hitler's advance on the eastern front in 1941. Trenches of the First World War claimed many casualties from cold and mud until armies learned the importance of counter-measures and troop rotation. Forty years ago, in the Falklands War, extensive peat bog came close to rendering crack British infantry unable to put in their final attack. For those trapped to the north of Kyiv, each day now increases the risk of hypothermia and local cold injury. Hypothermia is insidious, and a well-known killer. It was responsible for a great many of the deaths which almost wiped out Napoleon's and Hitler's forces during their agonising retreats from Russia, and still kills soldiers on training exercises around the world. Those who are rescued alive but profoundly hypothermic require carefully controlled rewarming in intensive care if they're to have any reasonable chance of survival. Many more than a handful of casualties can overwhelm the resources of even well-equipped hospitals in peacetime. Local cold injury is less well-known, except during warfare in cold conditions. It too was widespread among those retreating from Moscow, and was common in the First World War (Trench Foot), Second World War (particularly in the Ardennes, as well as the German retreat from Russia), Korean War (notably among those who fought at Chosin Reservoir), and the Falklands War. It comes in two basic forms: freezing (frostbite), and non-freezing (including trench and immersion foot). I'm sure you recall gruesome images of those who have suffered frostbite when in extreme cold and (often) high altitude. Although this is likely to be mutilating, it's well recognised and generally well treated. Non-freezing cold injury results from longer exposure to temperatures above freezing, often coupled with dehydration, hypothermia, immobility, and water or mud. While the feet or hands just go numb when they're cold, when rewarmed they rapidly become exquisitely painful, red and swollen. In well-trained troops, this can occur during regular foot care routines, and may result in such quick swelling that the boots can't be replaced - which was a widespread problem among British infantry in the Falklands. Pain following rewarming is so severe that some are driven to try to amputate their own feet. It makes walking impossible, prevents sleep, and isn't even relieved by narcotics like morphine. This really isn't the sort of problem you'd want to suffer from if you were stuck in one of those Russian vehicles. Unless it transpires that those Russians have been sitting comfortably playing cards all this time, every day on the road is going to mean more of them develop hypothermia and/or local cold injury. When they're finally recovered, there could be hundreds or even thousands requiring hospital care. While my concerns about those Russians are humanitarian, I'm worried that innocent Ukrainians are also at risk of non-freezing cold injury. The last time I'm aware of such large numbers taking shelter in underground stations and the like was in London during the Blitz in 1941-42. Look back in the medical journals of the day and you'll come across a condition which was frequently encountered among them, dubbed shelter limb. It's clinically identical to non-freezing cold injury of the feet, and was noted particularly among those who spent long nights sleeping in 'deck chairs', which can apply pressure to the tops of the calves. In war, no one wins, just loses less. IWM_ART_000518C R W Nevinson (1889-1946), Paths of Glory (1917), oil on canvas, 45.7 x 60.9 cm, The Imperial War Museum, London. By courtesy of The Imperial War Museums (c) IWM (Art.IWM ART 518). The boast of heraldry, the pomp of power, And all that beauty, all that wealth e'er gave, Awaits alike the inevitable hour. The paths of glory lead but to the grave. (Thomas Gray's Elegy Written In A Country Church-Yard, 1750) I apologise to those who were expecting discussion of Apple's next Event coming shortly, but just now this seems more important. Before you ask how I know all this, it's what I spent much of my professional career treating, studying and researching. I too served ashore during the Falklands War forty years ago, and have suffered cold injury of the hands and feet. I'd also like to thank the Ukrainians who have kindly provided me with additional information; for the moment I'll leave that non-specific in case it should ever return to haunt us. Share this: * Twitter * Facebook * Reddit * Pinterest * Email * Print * Like this: Like Loading... Related Posted in General, Life, Macs, Technology and tagged cold, cold injury, frostbite, hypothermia, trench foot, Ukraine, war. Bookmark the permalink. 28Comments Add yours 1. 1 [73a85ee44760] jimgbuffalo on March 6, 2022 at 8:19 am Reply Well said, Howard. LikeLiked by 1 person + 2 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:05 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 2. 3 [dca1f0a745d2] Michael Bach on March 6, 2022 at 9:53 am Reply Thank you! LikeLiked by 1 person 3. 4 [35f66004cb24] Colstan on March 6, 2022 at 12:32 pm Reply The Russian bear is not as weak as she seems, nor strong as she appears. As you rightly pointed out, Napoleon and Hitler thought they could roll in and been done by brunch. The harsh elements, terrain, and Russian willingness to take massive casualties stopped those advances. Comparatively, Russia has historically had significant trouble with conflicts involving much smaller, outmatched neighbors, which either resulted in a loss or a draw. During the Winter War in 1939, the Soviets were humiliated during their conflict with the Finns. The Russo-Japanese war ended without a decisive victory, the same with the Sino-Soviet border conflict. The Afghan invasion was a drawn out war of attrition with the Soviets ultimately retreating. We don't know what is going to happen in Ukraine. That history is still being written. The Russian military, at least on paper, shouldn't be having this level of difficulty, but your article puts the situation into perspective. LikeLiked by 1 person + 5 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:06 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 4. 6 [233b7c09d60f] William D Schwaderer on March 6, 2022 at 1:34 pm Reply Thank you for your service and this superbly informative article. LikeLiked by 1 person + 7 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:06 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 5. 8 [a260248f8b0b] Joel on March 6, 2022 at 2:19 pm Reply The leader of those Russian troops is indifferent of their fates as he is to all those who are being slaughtered by them. If only the Russian population really knew what is actually happening. LikeLiked by 1 person + 9 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:07 pm Reply Thank you. Intelligence suggests that high command has completely lost touch with many of the Russian units in Ukraine, and doesn't know whether they're still functional. Howard. LikeLike 6. 10 [67338d85a6dc] artiste212 on March 6, 2022 at 4:07 pm Reply Howard, I agree this was far more important than your planned commentary on Apple's upcoming event. I'm horrified and shocked by the complete disregard for human life shown by the Russian leader, but I'm also surprised by the courage and resistance of the Ukrainians. The failure of the Russians to move forward with their onslaught is a failure from the top in many areas, from preparedness, human resources, supplies, and tactics. But nowhere is the failure greater than in the strategic miscalculations show my the lack of undersatnding of their own capabilities and those of the Ukrainians and the West. Specifically, Ukraine's resistance and the unity shown by much of the world to this horror was certainly underappreciated by the autocracy in Russia. My main concerns are now twofold: first, I worry about the lives lost among innocent Ukrainians and even the young, untrained, and unprepared Russian soldiers. Second, I'm concerned that when the Russian leader is confronted with his having made the most collossal foreign policy and humanitarian mistake in 50 years, would he consider plunging Europe, or even the whole world, into nuclear holocaust that threatens the existence of humanity itself. We have become so accustomed to thinking of you as a Mac guru and an art historian that it took this article to remind us of your expertise in Medicine. Although you point out that the local cold injuries are very treatabler, many may have worse outcomes -- including gangrene and loss of function or ife -- if medical care is very disrupted by the ward. Just another reason why everyone loses in this war. LikeLiked by 1 person + 11 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:07 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike o 12 [a19995dabd65] Harald Striepe on March 6, 2022 at 8:12 pm Reply From what I have read, the Ukraine defense forces are specifically moving around attacking units and targetting the supply lines, which is turning out their achilles heel - ill-equipped and poorly trained. LikeLiked by 1 person # 13 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:15 pm Reply Yes - and the more those supply lines are extended, the more vulnerable they are, and the more the Russians depend on them. Logistics 101, I think. Howard. LikeLike 7. 14 [60c0a04809a2] EcleX on March 6, 2022 at 4:49 pm Reply Where are the United Nations now? LikeLiked by 1 person + 15 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:12 pm Reply Thank you. Yes, but it's complicated. Two resolutions have been proposed: the first to the Security Council was the only one which could have brought actions, and was predictably vetoed by the Russians. The second, to the General Assembly, passed very strongly, but doesn't have any teeth or real effect. The rules and case-law of the UN are extremely complex, and I suspect at the moment efforts are directed at making support almost universal, getting countries like India and Israel to stop abstaining and to vote with the overwhelming majority. Then we might see more action which can have some effects. But all the while, more and more Ukrainian civilians are being killed and wounded. It's horrifying - man's inhumanity to man. Howard. LikeLike o 16 [60c0a04809a2] EcleX on March 6, 2022 at 8:19 pm Reply Russia should be excluded from absolutely all international associations, including United Nations. No one should visit such country or receive people from it. No purchasing or selling anything from them. Cut from Internet. Cut from all. All. As if they did no exist at all effects. Until they stop killing. That is the only language that monsters understand. LikeLiked by 1 person # 17 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 10:57 pm Reply Thank you. I don't think excluding Russia from the UN would serve any useful purpose, and only make it harder to make any progress. However, I think most other international organisations are taking such action, bit by bit. Similarly, cutting off internet connections further deprives them of knowing what is really going on. We have to be careful not to make matters worse. Howard. LikeLike 8. 18 [63fcd7b0d388] Rick G. on March 6, 2022 at 6:33 pm Reply Thank you for your thoughts. I lack the words to express my feelings as well as you. Peace cannot come soon enough for the Ukrainian people. LikeLiked by 1 person + 19 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:13 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 9. 20 [86f0164de849] Samuel Herschbein on March 6, 2022 at 7:19 pm Reply Thank you Howard. Your depth of knowledge never ceases to amaze me. My paternal great grandfather was from Poltava, near Kyiv, he was escaping the pogroms. The Ukraine needs peace as an independent nation away from Russian influence. LikeLiked by 1 person + 21 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:13 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 10. 22 [a32524d12120] 2J on March 6, 2022 at 7:27 pm Reply Thank you Howard for sharing these thoughtful observations and concerns. Indeed, far more important at the moment than gadgetry analyses. On a related note, it's encouraging that many technology companies, including Apple, have responded meaningfully in this moment. I think they could do more, but it's a start. As for the war itself, I share your humanitarian concerns for Russian grunts and especially besieged Ukrainians. Bombarding apartment buildings and other civilian infrastructure, even as refugees literally run for their lives -- the horror. If he ever had them, Putin has lost both his mind and his soul. The potential broader implications are also worrisome -- Chernobyl 2.0 if the reckless Russian commanders keep shooting at nuclear power plants; the possibility of damaging Russian cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in allied nations; the possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons if an unhinged Putin feels cornered at some point and tries to lash out. As bad as things are now, they could get a lot worse. And yet there have also been very hopeful developments. The US and EU squandered the brief window of opportunity for a more enduring peace that emerged in the early 90's following the Soviet collapse, and have been politically divided and disunited for a very long time. And yet now, in a remarkably short period of time, indications of long-elusive unity and clarity of purpose have emerged on both sides of the Atlantic. Who could have predicted this more than a handful of days ago?? As another (in) famous Vladimir remarked a century ago, "there are weeks where decades happen." It's also notable that almost immediately after the invasion began, substantial anti-war protests broke out in Russia, and many thousands have been arrested for their trouble. This cannot be anything but hopeful, and to whatever extent possible the Russian people should be supported as they summon their strength in the weeks and months ahead. At the moment the future is massively uncertain, except regarding tremendous suffering for Ukrainians in the immediate term, and deprivations for ordinary Russians in the medium term. Depending on the kinetics of military attrition in Ukraine vs. economic attrition in Russia, the longer-term could spell catastrophe for Ukraine and even beyond; or alternatively herald a fresh opportunity for forging a unified, democratic (and hopefully environmentally aligned, energy-independent) Europe. Let us all pray and, according to our abilities, move for the latter outcome. LikeLiked by 1 person + 23 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:13 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 11. 24 [6315a15c400d] RalphB on March 6, 2022 at 7:53 pm Reply Thank you, Howard, for using your platform to share your personal experience related to the stalled convoy north of Kyiv. Eye-opening explanations. As a former global affairs journalist (for CNN in the last two decades of the Cold War), I remain amazed that the Russians have (apparently) failed to disable most of the communications infrastructure of Ukraine during the first week of this unprovoked and unconscionable war. I'm very curious whether allowing internet, satellite and cell communications to continue is a conscious decision of Putin's, a reflection of Russia's technical ineptitude (similar to your reference to using inadequate equipment during the well-known "mud season" in Ukraine), or whether it's a sign that Russian military personnel are quietly refusing to carry out orders to dismantle communications. Regardless of the reasons, it's been enormously useful to the Ukrainian resistance, to civilians, to journalists and to the intelligence community around the world. I think Russia's failure (so far) to undermine or block effective communication technology will go down as one of (probably many) failures of Putin's war. It's stunning to see the continuing flow of images, television and radio reports and social media posts, apparently unimpeded (or only slightly impeded) by Putin's forces. Despite having said that, of course its devastating to watch the unprecedented and abrupt forced exodus of civilians from their homeland, and the many casualties for which Putin is personally responsible. LikeLiked by 1 person + 25 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:14 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 12. 26 [a19995dabd65] Harald Striepe on March 6, 2022 at 8:01 pm Reply This is a devastating calamity that even after flattening all cities Putin cannot win. The debacle is worse than Afghanistan. LikeLiked by 1 person + 27 [6986a746f627] hoakley on March 6, 2022 at 8:14 pm Reply Thank you. Howard. LikeLike 13. 28 [6d83ecc8d97f] kapitainsky on March 6, 2022 at 8:27 pm Reply Thank you for this post. LikeLiked by 1 person Leave a Reply Cancel reply Enter your comment here... 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