https://lcamtuf.coredump.cx/prep/index-old.shtml

Disaster planning for regular folks

Written by lcamtuf@coredump.cx, Dec 2015, minor updates Jul 2021.
Twitter: @lcamtuf.

Buy the book! Practical Doomsday is an in-depth, data-packed guide to
rational emergency preparedness. Compared to the original content
hosted on this page, the book strikes a far more mature tone, and
provides much deeper and better-sourced insights on many key topics.
For example, it dedicates about 40 pages to the task of managing and
diversifying a rainy-day fund - covering everything from gold chains
to commodity derivatives.

You can get it on Amazon, order from Barnes & Noble, or visit your
favorite book place. Sample chapter is available here.

1. Introduction [link]

The prepper culture begs to be taken with a grain of salt. In the
public consciousness, its portrayals have all the makings of a
doomsday cult: a tribe of unkempt misfits who hoard gold bullion,
study herbalism, and preach about the imminent collapse of our
society.

Today, most of us see such worries as absurd. It's not that
life-altering disasters are rare: every year, we hear about millions
of people displaced by wildfires, earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods.
Heck, not a decade goes by without at least one first-class democracy
lapsing into armed conflict or fiscal disarray. But having grown up
in a period of unprecedented prosperity and calm, we take our way of
life for granted - and most of us would find it difficult to believe
that an episode of bad weather or a currency crisis could upend our
lives.

I suspect that we dismiss such hazards not only because they seem
surreal, but also because worrying about them can make one feel
helpless and lost. What's more, we tend to follow the same instincts
to tune out far more pedestrian and avoidable risks. For example,
most of us don't plan ahead for losing a job, for dealing with a
week-long water outage, or for surviving the night if our home goes
up in smoke.

Quite often, our singular strategy for dealing with such dangers is
to hope for the government to bail us out. But no matter if our
elected officials prefer to school us with passages from Milton
Friendman or from Thomas Piketty, the hard truth is that no state can
provide a robust safety net for all of life's likely contingencies;
in most places, government-run social programs are severely deficient
in funding, in efficiency, and in scope. Large-scale disasters pit us
against even worse odds. From New Orleans in 2005 to Fukushima in
2011, there are countless stories of people left behind due to
political dysfunction, poorly allocated resources, or lost paperwork.

The purpose of this guide is to combat this mindset of learned
helplessness by promoting simple, level-headed, personal preparedness
techniques that are easy to implement, don't cost much, and will
probably help cope with whatever life throws our way. More important,
they don't get in the way of enjoying your everyday life - and
instead of feeding anxieties, they should make it easier to detach
from the doom-and-gloom of 24-hour news.

2. Mapping out the unknown [link]

Effective preparedness can be simple, but it has to be rooted in an
honest and systematic review of the risks one is likely to face.
Plenty of newcomers begin by shopping for ballistic vests and night
vision goggles; they would be better served by grabbing a fire
extinguisher, some bottled water, and then putting the rest of their
money in a rainy-day fund.

To avoid being overwhelmed when trying to enumerate risks, I found
that it's best to focus on broad outcomes instead of trying to
envision every single way for things to go south. For example, it
should not matter if one is laid off because of a downsizing, because
their new boss hates them, or because the coworkers finally catch
them stealing paperclips. The outcome is the same: they are out of a
job and urgently need a way to pay the bills.

In the end, a careful examination of our daily routines and their
failure modes tends to offer better payoff than getting bogged down
with long-winded hypotheticals. Another common distraction is the
desire to immediately figure out how to respond to all the scenarios
we end up dreaming of. Let's save that for later; by prematurely
focusing on the second half of the problem, we may end up glossing
over some of the less tractable scenarios - or make haphazard
assumptions that will cloud our judgment in other ways.

I also believe that to come up with a rational threat model, we need
to think of "risk" as a product of both the probability and the
consequences of a given event. By that metric, stubbed toes and
zombie outbreaks are equally uninteresting; one of them has nearly
zero significance, the other, nearly zero odds. The non-recoverable
cost of mitigations matters, too. Some expenses can't be recouped if
a disaster does not come.

What else? Ah, right: the final heuristic I'd recommend is to keep
things uncomplicated. There are popular doomsday predictions that
deal with cutting-edge particle physics, god-like computer hackers,
vast government conspiracies, or extraterrestrial messages hidden in
pop songs. I suppose we can't really rule that stuff out, but
historical data suggests that there's a lot more merit in worrying
about falling off a ladder or getting hit by a car.

With these caveats in mind, let's go over some canonical scenarios
that are worth thinking about.

2.1. Problem space #1: Small-scale events [link]

It can be fun to speculate about solar flares and supervolcanoes;
it's far more mind-numbing to seriously evaluate the consequences of
backed up sewage or burst water mains. But in reality, such
unglamorous, small-scale incidents that do not make the news are far
more likely to disrupt and reshape our lives.

Broadly speaking, disastrous outcomes of such humdrum contingencies
can be divided into several groups:

  * Insolvency. If a person over the age of 40 tells you that they
    have never lost a job, they are pretty lucky (or lying). Yet, the
    risk is seldom taken seriously; many middle-class, single-income
    families would be in trouble after even a very brief period of
    unemployment. Even in the $100,000+ income bracket, living
    paycheck-to-paycheck is a common thing.

  * Disrupted access to water, food, energy, or transportation.
    Substantial and prolonged outages happen everywhere; many of us
    will experience at least one at some point in our lives. A week
    without electricity may be just inconvenient and scary,
    especially in a high-rise or in a seedy neighborhood. But other
    services can be more critical: even a single hot day without
    potable water is really bad news.

  * Loss of shelter. Every year, there are over 350,000 house fires
    in the United States. Such accidents usually aren't deadly - but
    if you are unlucky, they can leave you stranded in the middle of
    the night in your PJs, with no documents or credit cards in hand.
    Insurance can help, but even in simple cases, it takes time to
    get the final payout, and it takes months to rebuild.

  * Unintentional injury. Largely preventable and predictable
    incidents - such as falls, vehicle collisions, and poisonings -
    account for some 40 million ER visits annually. It can be argued
    that people are sometimes too quick to rush to the hospital, but
    said incidents also result in about 100,000 US deaths every year.

  * Intentionally inflicted harm. Violent crime is essentially normal
    almost everywhere in the world. In the US in the 90s, your
    lifetime likelihood of victimization was estimated to be around
    80%; the odds of suffering criminal injury hovered at 40%. More
    recent research is hard to come by - but scary or even
    life-threatening encounters remain a very real risk.

  * Debilitating illness or death. It's going to get us; maybe next
    week, maybe in 50 years. We can't really predict the day, but we
    can understand and meaningfully manage the impact it will have on
    those who depend on us - say, our stay-at-home partners or young
    kids. Probate cases often drag on for a year or more and involve
    substantial fees; in contrast, setting up your finances correctly
    may take as little as 10-15 minutes to complete a simple online
    form.

All in all, the risks discussed in this section have three defining
characteristics: they are relatively likely to happen; are strikingly
easy to mitigate (we'll get into that soon); and tend to be so
unglamorous that they seldom make the cut in any "serious" guide to
emergency preparedness.

2.2. Problem space #2: Mass calamities [link]

If an errant backhoe took out the utilities for your block, you would
probably head to the grocery store to pick up bottled water (and use
their restrooms, too). But if a once-in-a-century storm damaged major
roads and left half the city without running water, your options
wouldn't be as clear-cut.

That's why we have to look at larger-scale emergencies through
somewhat different lens, taking into account their likely magnitude,
duration, and the nature of the forces at play. Some of the plausible
scenarios to think about include:

  * Natural disasters. Common examples include floods, hurricanes,
    earthquakes, wildfires, and heatwaves. In some regions, such
    events are fairly rare; in others, they are almost guaranteed
    every decade or two. But no matter where you live, you should
    expect at least one "storm of the century", "winter of the
    century", or "drought of the century" to happen within your the
    span of your life.

  * Industrial accidents. Many people live in the proximity of heavy
    industries - say, refineries, freight railroads, or power plants.
    Depending on the type of industrial facilities nearby, it may
    make sense to evaluate the potential consequences of upwind and
    upstream explosions or chemical spills. Contrary to pop cultural
    fears, conventional industries, such as chemical plants, have a
    track record far more grim than Fukushima and Chernobyl.

  * Social unrest. Riots are a distinct risk in many urban and
    suburban areas around the world. When angry mobs take to the
    streets, widespread arson and violent crime are not unheard of,
    sometimes going on for days or weeks. While you probably won't
    have to fight off an angry mob in a residential neighborhood,
    there might be times when it's wise to skip some grocery store
    trips and hunker down.

  * Economic crises. All highly developed countries go through cyclic
    recessions and periods of high unemployment; the US had about ten
    big ones in the past 100 years alone. Sometimes, such events are
    accompanied by bank runs and collapses of financial institutions;
    other times, they involve hyperinflation, product rationing,
    deposit confiscations, or currency controls.

  * Pandemic. It's been a while since the highly developed world
    experienced a devastating outbreak, but it may be premature to
    flat out dismiss the risk. In 1918, an unusual strain of flu
    managed to kill 75 million people. Few years later, a mysterious
    sleeping sickness - probably also of viral origin - swept the
    globe, crippling millions, some for life. We aren't necessarily
    better prepared for similar events today.

  * Terrorism or conventional war. History books make us think we
    would see it coming - but in practice, such events are difficult
    to anticipate tend to catch nations off guard. These phenomena
    are noteworthy not only because of their immediate death toll,
    which can be relatively low - but because of the far-reaching and
    long-term socioeconomic disruption they can cause. The fears of
    terrorism are often dismissed as irrational, as relatively few
    people are killed by terrorists and very few terror campaigns
    achieve their ultimate goals; but in terms of the profound
    economic and societal impacts such attacks can have, they are
    worth factoring into any preparedness plan.

Most of readers will probably not get tangled up in a large-scale
disaster of any sort, but it is wise to hedge our bets. There are
countless examples to demonstrate that such events happen often and
can strike close to home - say:

  * The EU debt crisis, from 2009 onward. A series of events that led
    to staggering unemployment rates in Greece, deposit confiscations
    in Cyprus, and uncertain prospects for the entire eurozone.

  * Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Damaged more than 300,000 homes in the
    US, left millions without power - some for weeks.

  * The California wildfires of 2007. The blaze destroyed thousands
    of homes and forced 1 million SoCal residents to seek improvised
    shelter at stadiums and schools.

  * Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Put 80% of New Orleans under
    water, stranded countless motorists when 3 million people
    attempted to evacuate.

  * A decade of social unrest in France, from 2005 on. A series of
    widespread urban riots led to more than 13,000 cars being torched
    and hundreds of structures damaged or destroyed.

  * The European heatwave of 2003. A seemingly benign weather anomaly
    killed tens of thousands - mostly in highly developed and wealthy
    countries, such as France and Spain.

  * The Los Angeles riots of 1992. A startling rampage that resulted
    in about 2,000 injuries, 4,500 structures being looted, and some
    1,000 buildings set ablaze.

Preparing for such emergencies may seem exceedingly difficult, but
much can be accomplished with very simple tools. For example, if you
own a car, always keeping the tank at least half full, and having a
small box of rudimentary supplies in your trunk, can go a long way.
Again, we'll go over many other low-cost preparedness strategies
soon.

2.3. Problem space #3: The zombie apocalypse [link]

Many of the best-known works of science fiction explore the
possibility that one day, perhaps soon, the very fabric of our
society may simply unravel - and that those who survive The Event
would be forced to fend for themselves in a ravaged and hostile
world.

To connect with the reader, the writers of such post-apocalyptic
fiction skillfully play up contemporary fears, often implying that we
may be on the verge of an extinction event or a fundamental societal
shift. The usual literary themes include:

  * Uniquely virulent and deadly diseases (28 Days Later, The Stand,
    World War Z),

  * Preposterously violent weather anomalies (The Day After Tomorrow,
    Snowpiercer),

  * Unimpeded emergence of totalitarian techno-dystopias (Blade
    Runner, Gattaca, The Hunger Games),

  * Global thermonuclear war (Alas Babylon, The Day After, Fallout),

  * Robots deciding to kill all humans (Battlestar Galactica,
    Terminator),

  * Impertinent extraterrestrials (Edge of Tomorrow, Independence Day
    ),

  * Hand-wavy ecosystem collapses (Children of Men, The Road,
    Interstellar),

  * Cosmic collisions (Lucifer's Hammer),

  * Something with magnets (The Core, One Second After).

It's no wonder that all this vivid imagery keeps many preppers
preoccupied with civilization-ending events. Some of their worries
are based on patently absurd or exaggerated science; some are valid,
but rather unlikely to materialize within the span of our lives; and
many others boil down to interesting but somewhat idle speculation,
devoid of quantifiable risk or historical precedent.

At least in theory, the recipe for surviving civilizational collapse
is simple: we need to get away from other people and become
self-sufficient. It's fairly clear that deprived of their industrial
backbone, most of our cities and suburbs wouldn't be able to support
even a tiny fraction of their current population densities - and
would become horrid death traps. Living off the grid shields you from
all but the worst doomsday events.

My thinking is simple: if farming is your cup of tea, buy a plot of
land in the countryside. But if you'd rather live the rest of your
days without having to skin deer or plow a field, it probably pays to
focus on better quantified and substantiated risks - and not let
asteroids or space zombies keep us up at night.

3. The prepared lifestyle [link]

Of course, there is no use in worrying about the hypotheticals if
we're not going to actually tackle the risks. But it pays to be smart
about it, too: when it comes to emergency preparedness, the right
mindset can matter a lot more than a small fortune spent on ninja
gear and canned cheese. So, before going on a shopping spree, let's
talk about several simple, everyday principles that can shield us
from harm.

Much of the content in this section has little to do with hardcore
prepping; some of the chapters touch on seemingly banal topics, such
as financial planning, community building, or the prevention of
burglaries and car wrecks. We have all heard most of this advice
before - but if we are serious about risk minimization, one must
internalize these rules, understand where they are coming from, and
actually live by them every day.

3.1. Prepper commandment #1: Save some money [link]

Some are born into familial wealth or who display supernatural
business acumen. Then there is the rest of us, perhaps having robust
and satisfying careers, but ultimately never getting far enough from
the steep cliffs of financial misery. It may be a matter of our
employer going out of business, it may be a shift in the job market,
an illness, or a legal dispute - but in all likelihood, it would not
take much to push us off the ledge. I have friends who lived
paycheck-to-paycheck on cozy Silicon Valley salaries of $150k+ a
year, only to lose their cars and homes in the midst of the 2007
financial crisis - having found out the hard way that unemployment
benefits in the San Francisco Bay Area max out at $450 a week, not
nearly enough to pay their mortgages or make the rent.

I can't claim to have advice for people who are already in a tough
spot: if your household earnings are well below median, you may
simply have no disposable income to build a personal safety net. But
for most other folks, the ability to prepare for the zero-income
contingency should be within reach. Sure, even a lifetime of
belt-tightening won't make the average middle-class family fabulously
rich. But rainy-day funds work in a different way: their purpose is
to get us through a rough spell, not to pay for a mansion or a fancy
car. Since the amount needed is directly proportional to how much we
currently make, it makes relatively little difference if your
household brings in $70k or $140k a year. Either way, if you set
aside 10% of every post-tax paycheck, you should have a 6-month
financial safety net established within 3 years and a change.

This, of course, is easier said than done. We tend to scale up our
living expenses in proportion to earned income, so even among the top
1% of wage earners, people living paycheck-to-paycheck are not a rare
sight. And it's usually not the big-ticket stuff that gets them:
we're far more likely to overspend on all the smaller, habitual
purchases, because their cumulative cost is less apparent - and
potential savings are much easier to miss. The patterns to look for
will depend on your lifestyle and on how much you make, but here are
several suggestions for where to search for that 10%:

  * Groceries. It pays to shop at less expensive grocery stores and
    try out lower-shelf brands - especially when it comes to
    commodities such as cooking oil, paper towels, milk, seltzer
    water, flour, sugar, or salt. I'd wager that table salt tastes
    and works the same, whether we paid $1 at Walmart or $15 for a
    Sherpa-approved Himalayan variety at Whole Foods. Groceries eat
    up a good chunk of our monthly budgets, so even seemingly
    inconsequential savings tend to add up very fast. Even shaving
    just $15 or $20 off every grocery bill can add up to
    $1,000-$2,000 extra cash every year.

  * Restaurants & taxis. Many young, urban-dwelling folks frequently
    dine at restaurants, go to clubs, or take cabs around town. They
    don't need to give it all up, but it may make sense to scale back
    slightly by designating several days a week strictly for public
    transport and home food. Contemporary frozen dinners can be
    surprisingly tasty, and Netflix has some good shows.

  * Gadget upgrades. If our older phone, laptop, or a TV set are
    still working fine, it pays to keep them for another year or two.
    The excitement of new gear wears off quickly, usually in a matter
    of days or weeks, so it can actually be liberating to fall
    behind. There are entire communities of computer gamers who only
    play games at least one year old, and they seem as happy as
    people living on the cutting edge of tech.

  * Subscription services. Small monthly fees add up to gargantuan
    sums over the years, so it's good to take a critical look at
    cable TV, landlines, gym memberships, and so on. Downgrading to a
    slower speed for Internet service or slightly increasing the
    deductible on car insurance can result in significant savings,
    too. Insurance works best when it's purchased for unlikely and
    catastrophic losses; it's not a cost-effective way to pay for
    broken side mirrors, cracked windshields, and so on.

  * Home improvement. Even renters can save big bucks by learning how
    to reupholster or refinish furniture, patch drywall, paint walls
    and trim, install tile and cabinets, fix or replace faucets,
    unclog drains, and take care of other simple DIY jobs. In
    addition to saving a lot of money, home improvement can be
    incredibly rewarding, too.

  * Vacation. Camping trips can be a good alternative to heading off
    to a popular destination like Vegas, Hawaii, or Disneyland.
    Although it's nice to have a variety of experiences, by the end
    of the day, trips that involve less stress and less planning can
    be more enjoyable than high-stakes exotic getaways.

  * Extra cash. If you get a bonus or a raise at work, it's good to
    resist the urge to spend it right away. Consistently setting
    aside some or all of the extra income can pay off over time, and
    helps combat the phenomenon of lifestyle creep.

Somewhat counterintuitively, saving money is not just about cutting
down expenses; seeing a higher balance on a checking account can
instinctively make us less frugal, too. To counter this trend, I
found it helpful to set up a small, daily transfer to a savings
account, in an amount that blends in with daily purchases - say, $10
or so. This method takes much less planning and mental discipline
than trying to make one big deposit every month. And hey - once we
are comfortable with $10, we can painlessly test the limits by gently
ramping the amount up.

Debt should be approached with suspicion. Many of us are taught that
owing money is normal, even desirable; indeed, for middle-class
folks, some forms of indebtedness may be difficult to avoid. But
unnecessarily accrued debt cuts into your bottom line in two
insidious ways. First of all, monthly installment payments limit your
flexibility in an emergency - so if your income shrinks, your savings
will be depleted at a merciless and non-negotiable rate. Secondly,
high-interest loans, such as credit cards, amount to giving out a
good chunk of your income without earning anything useful in return.
They are akin to voluntarily accepting a pay cut.

As a matter of practicality, I wouldn't worry too much about your
existing mortgages or student loans: they are difficult to repay
early, tend to have very low interest, and confer special tax
benefits. But I'd use your initial savings to pay off credit card
balances, and do it quick. It pays to be careful with new
obligations, too. Unless you already have a very generous safety net,
a home loan that eats up more than 15% of your paycheck over the
course of 30 years is a very risky deal; and going over 30% is almost
certainly a bad idea, at least as far as financial continuity
planning goes.

As for the optimal size of your emergency fund, there are no hard
rules. Around six months' worth of post-tax earnings should provide a
very comfortable cushion for short- and medium-term disasters of all
sorts. Even in a deeper crisis, six months is plenty of time to scale
down expenses, find a new line of work, or regroup in some other way.

Now, chances are, if you follow the advice contained in this section,
you will not feel an urge to ramp up spending the moment you hit the
6-month mark. If so, it's best to keep going; with the initial
rainy-day fund established and good fiscal habits in place, you can
start treating the extra funds with more flexibility - for example,
"borrowing" against them to self-finance larger purchases, or aiming
to retire a bit earlier and a bit more comfortably than the
government expects you to. And by the time your savings are
sufficient to get you through a full year of unemployment, I bet that
your outlook on life, work, and personal finance will change in an
interesting way. There is a good if somewhat foul-mouthed essay on
this, called "A Story of a Fuck-Off Fund".

Oh, one more thing: when trying to reform your fiscal habits, it can
be useful to think of money as a unit of debt owed to you by the
society, awarded in exchange for your hard work (or as a consequence
of some other fortuitous event). Despite the popular saying, when
allocated wisely, that money can buy you safety, comfort, influence,
or true friendship and happiness. It would be foolish to squander it
on trinkets - just as it would be foolish to take it with you to the
grave. My advice is simple: make every transaction count.

3.2. Prepper commandment #2: Don't lose what you saved [link]

If all goes well, your rainy-day fund will eventually grow big enough
for you to face an important question: how do I keep all that capital
safe? Although it may seem like a remote concern, events such as bank
collapses, market crashes, and currency devaluations happen all over
the world with near-clockwork regularity - and there are few things
more infuriating and disenfranchising than finding out that the
fruits of many years of your labor have been wiped out by a market
panic or an administrative decree.

The answer to the question of safeguarding your wealth lies in the
solution to another riddle: the mechanism by which the society
determines the worth of a piece of money to begin with. It's a puzzle
central not only to everyday financial planning, but also to any
attempts to decipher and meaningfully evaluate countless mainstream
conspiracy theories and doomsday predictions related to the financial
world.

So, let's start from the beginning! Throughout much of the recorded
history, the monetary systems of the western world employed so-called
commodity money, generally settling on coins minted out of silver or
gold. The two metals were favored because of their nearly universal
appeal, and because of their inherently constrained, labor-intensive
supply. In this system, early prices likely reflected the worth of a
particular good compared to the valuation of the coin as a
non-monetary commodity. Over time, the exact "melt value" of the
coins started to matter less, and the currency functioned as a more
abstract unit of account - but its precious metal content stabilized
the economy by ensuring that the coinage had an inherent and lasting
value, even if the issuing state simply vanished from the map.

By the 18th or 19th century, many European countries moved on to a
more flexible model where coins were made out of cheaper metals, and
banknotes were printed on paper or cloth. To encourage the use of
these new instruments and to establish their value, the governments
or the issuing banks promised to freely exchange such intrinsically
worthless tokens for a predefined amount of gold. In other words, as
long as people had faith in their rulers or financial institutions,
the fundamental mechanics of this new representative currency
remained roughly the same as before.

In theory, both of these systems looked simple and robust. But there
was another, somethwat subversive force at play: in the 17th century,
many European states witnessed the emergence of fractional-reserve
banks. These private ventures operated according to a simple scheme:
they accepted people's money for safekeeping, promising to pay a
premium on every deposit made. To meet these obligations and to make
a profit, the banks then used the pooled deposits to make
high-interest loans to other folks. The financiers figured out that
under normal circumstances and when operating at a sufficient scale,
they needed only a very modest reserve - well under 10% of all
deposited money - to be able to service the usual volume and size of
withdrawals requested by their customers. The rest could be loaned
out.

The very curious consequence of fractional-reserve banking was that
it pulled new money out of thin air. The funds were simultaneously
accounted for in the statements shown to the depositor, evidently
available for withdrawal or transfer at any time; and given to
third-party borrowers, who could spend them on just about anything.
Heck, the borrowers could deposit the proceeds in another bank,
creating even more money along the way! Whatever they did, the sum of
all funds in the monetary system now appeared much higher than the
value of all coins and banknotes issued by the government.

Of course, no new money was being created in any physical sense: all
that banks were doing was engaging in a bit of creative accounting -
the sort of which would probably land you in jail if you attempted it
in any other comparably vital field of enterprise. If too many
depositors were to ask for their money back, or if too many loans
were to go bad, the banking system would fold. Fortunes would
evaporate in a puff of accounting smoke, and with the disappearance
of vast quantities of quasi-fictitious ("broad") money, the wealth of
the entire nation would shrink.

In the early 20th century, the world kept witnessing just that; a
series of bank runs and economic contractions forced the governments
around the globe to act. At that stage, outlawing fractional-reserve
banking was no longer politically or economically tenable; a simpler
alternative was to let go of gold and move to fiat money - a currency
implemented as an abstract social construct measuring indebtedness,
with no predefined connection to the physical realm. A new breed of
economists saw the role of the government not in trying to peg the
value of money to an inflexible commodity, but in manipulating its
supply to smooth out economic hiccups or to stimulate growth.
Depending on who you ask today, contemporary monetary policies -
especially in the era of bank bailouts and debt-fueled GDP boosting -
are either a brilliant way to stabilize free markets and promote
wealth, or a reckless charade that papers over systemic problems and
sets us up for serious trouble in the coming years.

That question aside, the obvious peril of fiat money is that in the
long haul, its value is determined strictly by people's willingness
to accept a piece of paper in exchange for their trouble; that
willingness, in turn, is conditioned solely on their belief that the
same piece of paper would buy them something nice a week, a month, or
a year from now. It follows that a simple crisis of confidence could
make a currency nearly worthless overnight. A prolonged period of
hyperinflation and subsequent austerity in Germany and Austria was
one of the precipitating factors that led to World War II. In more
recent times, dramatic episodes of hyperinflation plagued the fiat
currencies of Argentina (1980s), Italy (1980s), Israel (1984), Mexico
(1988), Poland (1990), Yugoslavia (1994), Bulgaria (1996), Bolivia
(1990s), Turkey (2002), Zimbabwe (2009), Venezuela (2016), and quite
a few other nations around the globe. The scale of this phenomenon is
surprisingly poorly studied in English-language literature, but at
least 56 instances are documented, most of them within the past 100
years; you can check out some examples here.

For the United States, the switch to fiat money came relatively late,
in 1971. To stop the dollar from plunging like a rock, the Nixon
administration employed a clever trick: they ordered the freeze of
wages and prices for the 90 days that immediately followed the move.
People went on about their lives and paid the usual for eggs or milk
- and by the time the freeze ended, they were accustomed to the idea
that the "new", free-floating dollar is worth about the same as the
old, gold-backed one. A robust economy and favorable geopolitics did
the rest, and so far, the American adventure with fiat currency has
been rather uneventful - perhaps except for the fact that the price
of gold itself skyrocketed from $35 per troy ounce in 1971 to $850 in
1980 (or, from $210 to $2,500 in today's dollars).

Well, one thing did change: now better positioned to freely tamper
with the supply of money, the regulators in accord with the bankers
adopted a policy of creating it at a rate that slightly outstripped
the organic growth in economic activity. They did this to induce a
small, steady degree of inflation, believing that doing so would
discourage people from hoarding cash and force them to reinvest it
for the betterment of the society. Some critics point out that such a
policy functions as a "backdoor" tax on savings that happens to align
with the regulators' less noble interests; still, either way: in the
US and most other developed nations, the purchasing power of any
money kept under a mattress will drop at a rate of somewhere between
2 to 10% a year.

All right. Financial systems are messy. Fiat money and
fractional-reserve banking, although wildly successful, can fail in
interesting and horrific ways. Foreign trade, neglected here but
absolutely vital for most European countries, adds even more
variables to the mix. So, let's talk about what can be done to
protect your rainy-day funds against some of the most likely or most
talked-about risks.

3.2.1. Fiscal challenge #1: Dealing with "normal" inflation [link]

At a rate of 4%, inflation will halve the purchasing power of your
savings in about 17 years; at 6%, the process will take just 11 years
and a change. Worse yet, depending on your location and lifestyle
choices, the inflation rate you experience can be much higher than
the nation-wide government numbers imply. For example, the
skyrocketing housing prices in the SF Bay Area have halved the
purchasing power of some aspiring homeowners in a matter of five
years or so, even though the official inflation figures hovered
during that period somewhere around 2%.

In any case, while it's seldom a prepper-grade emergency, you
probably need to tackle the problem of inflation sooner than later -
or face huge and unnecessary losses down the road. For our parents,
the solution was simple: they had to take their money to a bank. The
returns were usually sufficient to offset the loss, and since the
value of their money already depended on the health of the financial
system, they weren't facing that much added risk. But today, the
trick no longer works: people are skittish about the state of the
economy and are trying to play it safe, so banks already have more
deposits than they can use - and offer near-zero interest rates
across much of the developed world.

There are many other ways to get returns on your capital, but most
are associated with limited liquidity or significant outlay costs.
One well-known exception are publicly traded companies. Businesses
usually go public because they want to expand their operations - say,
build a new factory or hire more workers. Instead of getting an
expensive loan, they put themselves up for sale, allowing people to
purchase and trade fractional ownership in the company. The
investors' willingness to pay for this privilege depends on two
factors: the intrinsic value of the enterprise (its assets, debts,
revenue streams) that they get a claim on if the company goes
private, is acquired, or liquidates; and the "hype premium" - the
faith in the company's long-term prospects and the health of the
entire industry. For some companies, the intrinsic value is modest,
and the premium is huge; their shares are usually subject to violent
price swings on even seemingly minor macroeconomic news. For other,
less exciting businesses, the situation may be the opposite.

The conundrum of owning stock is that it serves as a hedge against
inflation only in an otherwise viable economy. At the first sight of
serious economic trouble, the premiums paid on corporate stocks take
a nosedive and not recover for months or years; in a genuine
downturn, the intrinsic value of many companies will also shrink.
Since a downturn is probably the time when you will need your
rainy-day money the most, it's important to play it safe. Putting
somewhere around 30-40% of your emergency stash into the stock market
may be a good call. Going all in is a very risky bet, since in an
economic crisis, it's not rare to see stock indices plunge 50%.

The fundamental rule is to not be greedy: within the scope of this
guide, your goal should be to preserve capital, not to take wild
risks. It's best to pick about 10-20 boring companies that seem to be
valued fairly, that are free of crippling debt, and that have robust
prospects for the coming years. I'd stay clear of financial
enterprises, of highly speculative sectors such as biotech, cannabis,
or solar power, and of heavily regulated industries that lack the
flexibility to deal with sudden economic shifts (say, airlines).
Relatively safe picks can be found in no-frills domains: basic
chemicals, staple electronic components, profitable freight railways,
mechanical assembly manufacturing, home and office supplies, and so
on.

It is worth noting that many personal finance experts advise against
hand-picking your investments. Instead, they advocate a process known
as "indexing": buying into an investment vehicle comprising hundreds
of stocks, structured to represent the stock market as a whole. The
proponents of indexing have a point: most people who try to pick
individual winners in the stock market usually fare no better than an
index fund. But in the context of prepping, I think this is advice is
flawed. To remain calm in tumultuous times, it is important to
maintain a firm grasp of the merits of your investments. One can
convincingly reason about the financial condition, the valuation, or
the long-term prospects of a paper mill; the same can't be said of an
S&P 500 index fund - which, among other things, contains the shares
of about a hundred global financial conglomerates.

3.2.2. Fiscal challenge #2: Having no access to your bank account [
link]

Sooner or later, you may find yourself unable to access your bank
deposits for a couple of days or weeks. It could be a matter of IT
trouble at your bank, of a lost wallet, or of being a victim of
identity theft. Heck, take Greece or Cyprus: when the confidence in
the nation's financial institutions is shattered, it's easy to get
caught up in government-imposed bank closures and withdrawal
controls. (Folks in the United States may also recall the forced
closure of Washington Mutual in 2008, or several state-level "bank
holidays" imposed to combat bank runs during the savings & loan
crisis back in the 80s.)

For short-term survival, simple solutions work best: just keep about
2-4 weeks' worth of cash somewhere at hand; have enough money on you
to get you back home when traveling, too. Of course, be mindful of
the risk of burglary, so if you're keeping the funds at home, pick an
unobvious location for the stash; more about that soon.

As for the remainder of your money, I suggest splitting it across two
largely unrelated financial institutions with different risk profiles
- say, a big national bank and a local credit union. As long as the
deposits are insured by the government (as they normally are in the
US and in Europe, up to a per-account limit), this approach greatly
increases the availability of your money, and probably doesn't expose
you to any substantially new dangers. Keeping all your savings
outside the banking system is an option, too, but it's not
necessarily a smart choice. With fiat currencies, this move does not
truly insulate you from that many longer-term risks, but adds the
very real possibility of losing all your funds to fire or theft.

Perhaps of note: over the past 5 years, many European governments
have moved to severely restrict the use of cash by imposing
per-transaction or daily limits as low as $1,000. The stated reasons
have to do with money laundering and tax evasion, but such measures
broadly make it harder to store or use physical currency, even if
you're not doing anything wrong. In the US, some cash transactions
over $10,000 are subject to reporting, too.

3.2.3. Fiscal challenge #3: Dodging hyperinflation and "bail-ins" [
link]

Ask a financial advisor about the possibility, and they will probably
recommend keeping some of your funds overseas. But the odds aren't
great of correctly picking a currency with more staying power than
the one in which you get paid. Historically, the Swiss franc had a
reputation for being an exceptionally safe choice, in part because of
being the last major currency still quasi-pegged to gold; but
Switzerland abolished this requirement in a referendum around the
year 2000.

Another complication is that even if you make the right call, many
governments impose onerous reporting requirements on foreign assets -
and especially in times of economic hardship, they treat them with
suspicion and contempt. Host countries are also more cavalier about
confiscating foreign deposits, as evidenced by the Cypriot "bail-ins"
in 2013. Lastly, the public associates overseas accounts with tax
evasion and money laundering, so it may be difficult to garner any
sympathy for your case when things go wrong.

One school of thought popular in the prepper community is to convert
some of your savings into commodity metals: copper, tin, silver,
platinum, palladium, and the likes. All of them are easy to store,
last indefinitely, and will certainly hold value far better than a
fiat currency in free fall. On the flip side, you may still need to
accept substantial loss: an economic collapse will disrupt industrial
demand, causing the prices of many such commodities to slump.

This brings us to gold: this metal occupies an interesting niche,
because its value is driven chiefly not by industrial applications,
but by direct consumer demand and by its status as a mainstream
financial instrument. In fact, investors and governments alike
frequently flock to it in times of economic uncertainty and
stagnation, as they did in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007.
Of course, this goes both ways: should the economy pick up steam, the
demand may decrease and the currently elevated prices of gold may
fall closer to their historical, inflation-adjusted average of
perhaps $800-$1,000 per troy oz. Still, the metal is an interesting
hedge against economic disasters, especially given that it is very
easily bought and sold. If you are worried about hyperinflation, you
may want to convert some of your savings into this shiny commodity,
although I wouldn't go over 20-30% or so, as the poorly-characterized
volatility of metal prices can sting in the short haul.

Because of its very high value-to-volume ratio, physical gold is
stored and moved around very easily, but keeping substantial amounts
at home can be ill-advised; theft is a very real risk, and most
insurance policies will not adequately cover the loss. Safe deposit
boxes at a local bank, available for around $20 a year, are usually a
better alternative - although they come with some trade-offs; for
example, the access to deposit boxes was restricted by the government
during the Greek debt crisis in 2015. Non-bank storage services do
not have that problem, but cost quite a bit more.

3.2.4. Fiscal challenge #4: Oh no! Zombie apocalypse! [link]

The global financial system simply disappears. Mutant hordes roam the
earth!

The preservation of wealth after a civilization-ending event is a
popular topic of idle banter in the prepper community. Some folks
believe that commodities such as silver and gold would return as the
basis of a primitive post-apocalyptic economy - and if we're wildly
speculating, in the longer haul, that seems like a somewhat plausible
guess. But in the immediate aftermath, it seems more likely that
economic activity would be minimal and limited to barter or communal
ledgers. Nobody would want to exchange a candy bar for a gold coin if
they can't be sure about being able to find any other food.

This may sound like a good argument for putting all your money into
freeze-dried meals, medicine, shovels, and other survival supplies.
But of course, that decision would become a huge liability should the
apocalypse not come, or simply not come soon enough: you probably
can't pay a roofer or a dentist with a pallet of ammo, cigarettes,
and canned ham.

Here's my advice: keep the bulk of your savings in cash, stocks, real
estate, or other assets you can easily liquidate or put to use today;
even if you genuinely worry about the apocalypse, plan to spend no
more than 2-4% of your money on essential prepper supplies. When the
zombies come, your financial instruments will almost certainly become
worthless; but you better believe that the value of your survival
gear will increase 100-fold. Zombies or not, your net worth will be
safe. Your delicious, tasty brains - well, that's something to worry
about!

3.3. Prepper commandment #3: Learn new skills [link]

In the 90s, it seemed that one couldn't go wrong getting into
professional journalism, opening a video rental store or an arcade,
or selling calculators, encyclopedias, disposable cameras, answering
machines, and audio CDs. We would be very naive to hope that the next
twenty years will not bring similarly dramatic disruption to many of
the seemingly cozy professions of today.

So, here's another suggestion for building a comprehensive
preparedness plan: it's good to develop and maintain useful and
marketable secondary skills. A simple and enjoyable way of doing so
is to pick a hobby we can get passionate about - and then work hard,
be very honest about your own mistakes and shortcomings, and try to
get better at it every week. One probably shouldn't seek immediate
profits, since progressing from a hobby to a paid occupation
inevitably takes away some of the fun; but it helps to gravitate
toward pursuits that could conceivably morph into viable career
choices within a decade or so. For families, it can be good to
encourage spouses or children to pursue thoughtful hobbies of their
own, too.

The value of such a step extends beyond the mere task of shielding
you from glacial shifts in the job market: if a major disaster
suddenly cripples the local economy, there may be no more jobs for HR
specialists or account executives, but carpentry or metalworking
skills could be in high demand for the coming year or two. You can
never predict it exactly, but the more you can do, the better you can
cope with whatever adventures come your way.

When it comes to recommendations, there is no short list of hobbies
that are objectively better than the rest; the selection is vast, and
the right choice will inevitably depend on your own interests,
natural talents, the space you have available, and on countless other
constraints. That said, here are some fairly popular options that may
be worth thinking about:

  * Woodworking and carpentry,

  * Metalworking, knife making, gunsmithing,

  * Glassblowing, pottery,

  * Sewing, embroidery, leather crafting, toy making,

  * Amateur electronics or robotics,

  * Computer programming,

  * Graphical design,

  * Creative writing or online journalism,

  * Farming or hunting (in rural regions),

  * Community education and local charity work.

Not all of these hobbies can be turned into well-paying gigs unless
you truly excel at them - but they are guaranteed to be challenging,
meaningful, and fun. The Internet gives you ample opportunities to
learn from others, compare notes, and get feedback on your work - all
without prematurely subjecting yourself to the pressures of the
commercial marketplace.

Of course, marketable hobbies aside, some of the more determined
preppers pursue interests such as martial arts, pro marksmanship,
bushcraft, paramilitary combat tactics, and other extreme survival
strategies. Such talents can be quite useful in a couple of plausible
if unlikely scenarios - but their major disadvantage is that during a
simple economic downturn, they won't put bread on the table or pay
your bills. It's not unwise to give them some consideration, but be
sure to balance it with more pragmatic skills.

3.4. Prepper commandment #4: Don't hurt yourself [link]

Unintentional injury may seem like a topic unbecoming a true prepper,
but even the most hardcore survivalist may find it hard to live out a
post-apocalyptic Mad Max fantasy with a bum leg or a broken neck; and
more prosaically, serious prior injury may limit your ability to
provide for yourself and your family, confront a burglar, or get out
of a burning home. It may seem like a far-fetched worry, but - as
noted earlier - the lifetime probability of suffering some form of
harm is much greater than we intuitively suspect.

Now, there are some dangers to life and limb that we simply can't
predict or prevent: the occasional falling piano, the murderous
roommate, the untimely stroke. Then there are the risks we take on
purpose, accepting the inherent and unavoidable trade-offs of our
hobbies or jobs: the possibility of being snatched by a giant squid
while snorkeling off the coast of California, or the near-certainty
of lung fibrosis from toiling in a sugar mine. These are the things
we can't or don't want to give up - and that's perfectly fine.

But there are also the "hold my beer" moments: the unnecessary
displays of bravado, overconfidence, or thoughtlessness. We recognize
them from cringeworthy Youtube clips of people getting hurt - but we
are guilty of the same: we get honked at for carelessly changing
lanes, we end up climbing more than a fair share of rickety ladders
and office chairs, and every now and then, we all get a bit cavalier
with lawnmowers, escalators, ATVs, or other power tools.

We keep getting away with all that goofiness, and that only serves to
make us more certain that our own transgressions carry no serious
risks. But government statistics tell a strikingly different tale: in
the US alone, unintentional injuries result in 40 million ER visits
and 100,000 deaths every year. Heck, accidental injury is the leading
cause of death for people between the ages of 1 and 45 - far ahead of
cancer, heart disease, gun violence, and other pop culture bogeymen.
And the injuries themselves are very prosaic, too: all you see are
falls from modest heights, cuts, burns, vehicular collisions,
poisonings, and so forth. The "idiots" we sometimes watch on Youtube
are us. They just happen to have been caught on camera on the day
their luck ran out, perhaps aided by downing a couple of beers.

In the end, ladders, cars, and space heaters are a much greater
threat to our well-being than a gun-toting robber or an army of
zombie marauders could ever be. So, gleaned from accident statistics,
here are some of the familiar-sounding but crucial survival tips. It
may sound unlikely, but if something appears on this list, it's
responsible for quite a few gruesome deaths or injuries every year;
it pays to take it to heart.

3.4.1. Safety tip #1: Don't be stupid when working at heights [link]

Working at heights can be a prime example of an unnecessary risk:
sure, the lightbulb needs changing and that office chair is really
close, but it would take us just 15 more seconds more to bring a more
sturdy stool from another room. Similarly, having someone hold a
wobbly ladder for us or securing it with some rope can be a minor
hurdle - but it's gonna be much less of a hurdle than dealing with a
compound fracture or a dent in one's skull.

Whenever working at heights, it's good to remember that we probably
experienced most of our falls as children, and that can profoundly
skew one's perception of danger: falling five feet and landing on
your side is different when you weigh 50 lbs, and different when you
are 180 lbs.

3.4.2. Safety tip #2: Drive defensively and stay calm on the road [
link]

Car accidents are a major source of injuries, and the methods to
mitigate the risk are familiar to most: don't go too fast, keep a
three-second distance to the vehicle in front of you, and always scan
for cross traffic when approaching intersections or making turns
(other drivers may be less attentive than you). It's also good to be
very careful when changing lanes, do it slowly, and be sure to adjust
one's mirrors to eliminate blind spots (you don't really need to see
the sides of your car). Next, it's worthwhile to slow down for cars
stopped in other lanes - they may be letting a pedestrian through.
Finally, there are clear benefits to wearing seat belts, keeping
children in fitting car seats, getting some rest on longer trips, and
not talking on the phone - it doesn't matter that it's hands-free.
I'd avoid frequent rides with people who drive badly, too.

Interestingly, driving and safeguarding your finances have something
in common: when you end up hurting another person in an at-fault
accident, they may go after your savings or real estate to recoup
medical expenses, lost wages, and other costs. So, in addition to
driving defensively, it makes sense to take a look at your insurance
policy. The minimum liability coverage mandated by the state can be
as low as $15,000; relatively few victims will settle with the
insurer for that amount if they think that taking you to court could
net them ten times as much. Bumping your limit to $250,000 is usually
pretty cheap. In fact, if you have collision coverage, you can more
than make up for it by increasing your deductible to $1,000.

As for biking on public roads: it pays to wear a helmet and
bright-colored clothing, to stay well clear of the doors of parked
vehicles, move in a straight line instead of weaning in and out of
the traffic, and watch for cars trying to make right turns. It's good
to scan for cross traffic at intersections and signal all turns.
Conversely, it's unwise to run red lights - the risk is not worth the
seconds shaved off your commute. Last but not least, it's a bad idea
to ride without holding the handlebars; it's a cool skill, but when
you do that, a single rock or an unnoticed pothole can throw you
right under the wheels of a passing bus or down the ravine.

3.4.3. Safety tip #3: Show respect to dangerous machines and
chemicals [link]

It's best to read up on the safety rules pertaining to your weekend
hobbies and to your daytime job; I'd also ask others about their
horror stories and vigorously take notes. One should always be
careful around power tools such as chainsaws, table saws, angle
grinders, lathes, and nail guns - they have quite a penchant for
taking fingers off and eyes out. (Table saws in particular are
responsible for about 30,000 serious injuries annually, or about 40%
of all workshop accidents.)

In general, it's best not to horse around any heavy machinery; if
it's weighs more than you, it can kill you in the blink of an eye.
This is also important for children: we should teach them not to play
behind or under parked cars. And if you have a toddler, it's good to
use straps to secure rickety dressers and other tall, heavy
furniture.

At home, my other advice would be to stay alert around deep fryers
and pots of boiling water. It's also good to wear eye protection when
working with drain cleaners, bleach, and other caustic substances.
Lastly, it's useful to learn about the overdose risks of paracetamol
(ibuprofen is a much safer pick) and take a critical look at your
prescription drugs, especially when it comes to opioids. If you're
ever doing DIY electrical work, I'd learn how to do it properly, and
get a non-contact voltage probe to double-check for live wires before
touching anything.

3.4.4. Safety tip #4: Don't die in a fire [link]

One of the well-known defenses is to install smoke detectors and keep
them operational; if they are going off too often, it's possible to
move them farther away from the kitchen, or switch to photoelectric
sensors, which are much less sensitive to minor cooking mishaps. If
running new wiring is a challenge firmly outside your DIY comfort
zone, there are many long-lasting battery-operated units to choose
from.

It's also good to get at least two good-sized ABC fire extinguishers
(5-10 lbs or so) and keep one in your bedroom. Similarly, it helps to
learn how to deal with oil fires, to avoid stockpiling excess
flammable materials, and to be very careful when pouring flammable
liquids near open flames (this includes alcoholic drinks). Other tips
include watering your Christmas tree and using LED tree lights; or
unplugging devices with lithium-polymer batteries when leaving home.
Finally, it's important not to put grills next to siding-clad walls
and not to overload extension cords; and when cooking, it pays to
stay in the kitchen or set a timer to remind yourself that the oven
is on.

3.4.5. Safety tip #5: Just in case, keep your senses razor-sharp [
link]

If you're regularly drinking or doing psychoactive drugs, try to kick
the habit - or at least scale it back. I'm not going to give you a
talk about the evils of cannabis, but by the end of the day, impaired
judgment is impaired judgment. It inherently increases the odds of
waltzing into trouble or getting hurt.

3.5. Prepper commandment #5: Don't become a victim [link]

In addition to the dangers of poor financial planning and the
ever-present specter of unintentional injury, another threat we
should reckon with is becoming a victim of a crime. Although the risk
is not as pervasive as the challenges discussed earlier in this
chapter, it still earns a distinction as one of the things that many
readers may have to face at some point in their lives.

Ask a hardcore prepper for advice on this matter, and they will
probably tell you to start practicing hand-to-hand combat, get a
knife, or carry a gun. But in reality, we need a more nuanced and
proportional approach to threats, and one that emphasizes avoidance
and de-escalation, rather than the ability to resolve each and every
conflict with a single well-placed shot. Sure, a self-defense weapon
can save your butt in some life-or-death situations, but these are
comparatively rare; such a tool won't deter a pickpocketer, won't
stop a burglar from ransacking your place while you are at work, and
won't prevent a hacker from emptying your bank account while you're
busy watching the reruns of Gilmore Girls.

In other words, while this guide certainly doesn't have an
anti-self-defense or an anti-firearm slant, we'll try to take a
broader view before delving into the comparative merits of karate
chops, blade weapons, firearms, stun guns, and pepper spray.

3.5.1. Defense tip #1: Practice situational awareness when on foot [
link]

When walking around town, it's useful to keep scanning your
surroundings and be mindful of people around you; it can be dangerous
to get lost in thought in transitional spaces, such as pedestrian
underpasses, back alleys, or empty parking lots. If your spidey
senses are tingling, I'd just bail: make a sharp turn and sprint
away. I wouldn't worry that some random dude who is closing up on me
at night might be perplexed or offended by your move. It's also
important not to freeze up if somebody hollers or authoritatively
barks an order at you - complying is a very powerful instinct, and
some assailants know to exploit it. If a stranger in a parking lot
has no discernible business with you, there's limited value in
letting them get close.

Of course, some street-savvy readers may consider it to be in poor
form to sprint away from a threat, and may be inclined to confront
the danger and see where that takes them. It's an OK choice if you
are well-armed or physically fit, but is certainly not a way to
minimize the probability of harm.

3.5.2. Defense tip #2: Make yourself pickpocket-proof [link]

In shopping malls, on mass transit, and in other crowded settings, I
wouldn't carry my most precious valuables in front or back pockets; a
purse is also a clear no-no. Inner pockets of jackets, and chest- or
knee-level pockets of pants and shirts, are much harder to muck with.
Discreet, slim waist packs or under-the-garments neck wallets work
even better. If you're fashion-conscious, it may help to emphasize to
your friends that you are wearing such accessories only ironically.
It might even start a trend!

3.5.3. Defense tip #3: Protect your valuables at home [link]

Most break-ins are purely opportunistic: thieves are in and out
within five minutes, quickly rummaging through all the places where
people usually keep valuable stuff. You can bank on them going
through every nook and cranny of your bedroom, looking under the
mattress, peeking into every drawer - and grabbing everything that
looks shiny and is easy to lift. Their usual targets include phones,
cameras, tablets, laptops, jewelry, firearms, loose cash, checkbooks,
credit cards, and prescription meds. Vital documents that may be
useful for identity theft or benefits fraud, such as drivers
licenses, passports, and SSN cards, are also a fair game.

Break-ins are difficult to prevent, especially in suburban
single-family homes with secluded backyards and street-level windows
and doors; tall fences and window bars can work, but they are
expensive and tend to draw the ire of your neighbors. The most
cost-effective solution may be to keep your windows and doors closed
when away, but beyond that, just optimize for hassle-free outcomes.
You can leave some less important goodies in plain sight - say, some
cheap jewelry, a modest amount of cash, and a beat-up phone - and put
all the real valuables in a much less obvious or less accessible
spot. A heavy safe will usually do; diversion safes fashioned into
books, cans or clocks are pretty cool, too - if you trust yourself
not to accidentally throw them away.

We'll talk about home security equipment later on - but in general,
devices such as alarm systems, cameras, or sophisticated locks play a
lesser role in keeping your belongings safe; a well-trained dog can
work wonders, but especially in an urban or a suburban setting, such
a pet is a substantial commitment (and can turn out to be a lazy
bum).

If there's another powerful and low-cost burglary prevention tool at
your disposal, it's being careful not to attract targeted theft. Be
mindful of who you invite into your home, who handles your keys, and
how much you signal about your financial status to your more distant
family, random acquaintances, or strangers parked across the street.
If you have children, it's probably good to teach them not to brag
about what they have at home.

Advertising your wealth aside, another sure way to invite burglars is
to make it seem that your house is unoccupied: packages piling up in
front, an overflowing mailbox, an empty driveway, all lights turned
off at night. Asking a neighbor to park a car in your driveway,
putting some lights on a timer, and having someone pick up your mail,
are just several examples of low-cost solutions that are worth trying
out whenever going on a longer trip.

3.5.4. Defense tip #4: Plan for dangerous encounters [link]

Sometimes, you can't avoid a confrontation. It's good to rehearse
potential reactions if somebody asks you to get into a car, demands
cash, or barges into your occupied home. It would be a complete shock
for you, but they have probably done it before - so you gotta
practice if you want to have the upper hand. Even if they have a
weapon trained on you, it's a game of confidence and wits, not just
physical force.

For muggings, keeping several $10 or $20 bills in your front pocket
(and having real valuables somewhere else) can be enough to send them
on their way; in busy locations, you should also be able to just
ignore the mugger and briskly walk away. For more serious incidents,
it may be useful to respond with something that is non-threatening
but catches the assailant off guard. Simply feigning a panic attack
or initiating a startling conversation ("hey, are you a friend of
CJ's? Pretty sure we've met last year!") can throw them off balance -
buying you a split second to fight back or get away. Of course, you
also need a plan for that next step; that's where your running
skills, your bare-hands self-defense talents, or your weapons
proficiency can come into play. But again, you need to actively
practice and develop approaches that have a chance of working in real
life; there's no verbal diversion strategy in the world that would
give you enough time to fumble through your purse to find an old,
gummed up can of pepper spray.

For home intrusions, you should try to act out various scenarios:
say, confronting the bad guy or trying to escape. Take into account
that break-ins can happen at different times of day or night.
Remember that intruders may have varied intents, too; some folks may
be homicidal or high, but most will just want your laptop and will be
very worried about getting hurt. Many robbers work in pairs, too.

Whether you like it or not, you may eventually have to defend
yourself, so be sure to understand the law. Nobody should take such
advice from random people on the Internet, but as far as I can tell,
in much of the US and in many other western countries, you have no
duty to run away from an attacker and can use deadly force if you
have a reasonable and immediate reason to fear for your life or the
lives of others. But there are exceptions; for example, despite
recent reforms, a duty to retreat outside one's home exists in
several northeastern states and in some corners of the Midwest. There
are also differences in how seemingly similar self-defense statutes
get interpreted by the police, by prosecutors, and by courts in
different parts of the world.

3.5.5. Defense tip #5: Don't be an easy target online [link]

Your cyber-life matters - or at the very least, your bank account
password and your credit card numbers do. To avoid falling prey to
hackers, keep your software up-to-date, choose decent and unique
passwords for all important websites, don't install sketchy freebies,
and don't fall for legit-looking but unexpected messages, prompts, or
phone calls. When in doubt, just leave the site you were on or hang
up the phone, do some web searches to understand what's going on, and
maybe try again some time later. Attackers often try to create a
false sense of urgency to get you to make rushed decisions; in
reality, whatever it is that you're asked to do, it can wait.

Be sure to make offline backups of any documents you can't afford to
lose, and don't keep anything too embarassing on your computer;
ransomware is a very real threat, and it's best not to put yourself
in a position where you have no choice but to pay the hackers.

Beware of financial scams. If you get an IM from a friend on an
unannounced overseas trip urgently asking for a loan, call them or
check in with their family first. There's probably no inheritance
waiting for you in Nigeria, your chatroom bride-to-be in Ukraine is
not short on cash, and you are not the 1,000,000th visitor to
timecube.com.

Oh, one more thing: don't log into your bank, e-mail, or any other
sensitive services from other people's computers; if you absolutely
have to, change your password as soon as you get home. It's not that
your acquitances are evil, but they may be more sloppy than you when
it comes to keeping their devices safe.

3.5.6. Defense tip #6: Don't make enemies [link]

If we're doing something that's morally reprehensible or socially
unwelcome, we're greatly increasing the odds of getting hurt. It
doesn't matter if we think it's perfectly legal: if we build a
reputation as malicious jerks, a bored prosecutor will probably dream
up a felony charge to hit us with. Or perhaps they won't, but one of
the people you wronged will lose it and take justice into their own
hands. In other words, if one wants to escape harm, they shouldn't
mess with others out of malice, jealousy, boredom, or for petty
personal gain.

3.6. Prepper commandment #6: Get in shape [link]

In the United States, about one in three adults is obese - that is,
are overweight to the point where the condition likely interferes
with their health or their daily lives. And while many folks in the
prepper community tend to grossly overstate the importance of tip-top
physical fitness, there is no denying that obesity is a very real
foe. For example, among low-BMI males around the age of 40, the
incidence of diabetes hovers around 1-4%, but the same number
skyrockets to 50-80% for obese guys. Many other, serious metabolic
and cardiovascular diseases follow the same curve - and can make it
very difficult for the affected families to cope even with fairly
prosaic and short-lived emergencies.

In all likelihood, if you are obese or slowly getting there, you know
quite well that losing some weight is not really the hard part: if
you were to stop eating for a week, you would likely shed 5-10
pounds. But it would be a miserable experience, and one almost
guaranteed to be followed by an even faster rebound. So, the real
challenge of weight management is coming up with a long-term strategy
that does not amount to torture - and does not leave us constantly
craving for familiar foods.

Alas, most of the popular diets make this task awfully hard: they
force their followers to abandon a lifetime of dietary habits, taste
preferences, and eating schedules - and stuff themselves full of
kale, turnips, quinoa, acai berry, or whatever else happens to be
this week's "fat-fighting superfood". To add insult to injury, most
of the nutrition fads are not actually backed by real, reproducible
science; suffice to say that in the 70s, table sugar was widely
touted as a dieting aid. Even today, weight loss advice tends to
revolve around robustly debunked concepts - say, the existence
negative calorie foods, the alleged superiority of low-carb but
high-fat diets, the evils of HFCS and aspartame, or the significance
of eating meals on a particular schedule thoroughout the day.

Just as importantly, our innate nutritional instincts can be badly
misguided, too: for example, contrary to common wisdom, bananas are
not really healthier than potatoes, and the bulk nutritional
qualities of a glass of apple juice are pretty close to those of a
can of Sprite. Heck, good ol' butter has fewer calories than olive or
coconut oil, so a "healthy" bruschetta is not far off from a
less-reputable southern delicacy: deep-fried butter on a stick. It
gets better: a supposedly nutritious burrito from Chipotle easily
packs four times as many calories as a greasy burger from McDonald's,
while a loaded coffee at Starbucks is about the same as downing two
hot dogs with a heaping side of mashed potatoes to boot. The end
result is a truly abysmal track record for most weight loss regimes;
the long-term success rate for people who try to slim down is
estimated to be somewhere between 5 and 20%.

My advice is that if you want to lose weight, it's best to stay away
from celebrity-endorsed diets, dubious nutrition claims, and rigid,
unworkable plans that seek to control your every urge. While every
situation is different, here are several ways to eat less while still
staying happy:

  * Start your breakfast with high-quality protein powder and
    insoluble dietary fibers (about 20-30 grams each; you can mix
    them together in a cup of cold water). There is reasonable that
    fiber and protein can increase satiety and reduce cravings
    thoroughout the day. It's not "natural", but it beats making
    implausible resolutions to organize your life around low-calorie,
    fiber-rich meals - especially if you don't like veggies or don't
    usually cook your food.

  * Beyond this, stick to your favorite foods and don't feel
    pressured to skip regular meals - but cut all portions in half,
    even if it means throwing a half-eaten burger out. Don't go back
    for seconds, too. It will feel wrong the first couple of times,
    but it's surprisingly easy to do. That's because portion control
    is almost completely psychological; your blood hormone and
    nutrient levels go up only some time after you cleaned your
    plate. Eating more slowly can make this step a lot easier, too.

  * For habitual snacking in front of a computer or a TV, see if you
    can substantially reduce calories while still sticking to
    satiating and tasty treats. This can be easier than it sounds:
    say, helping yourself to a nice serving of salted popcorn (110
    kcal), preparing a cup of buttery mashed potatoes (110 kcal),
    grabbing some quick oatmeal (130 kcal), or sipping some hot
    instant chicken soup (50-80 kcal), is an excellent alternative to
    Cheetos, M&Ms, or even supposedly healthy peanuts (easily 400-600
    kcal). If you enjoy pickles or raw sauerkraut, they are extremely
    low-calorie, so have as much as you want; in the same vein,
    carrots are a pretty guilt-free choice. Chewing gum can keep you
    occupied between meals, and if you are downing multiple cans of
    sugary drinks a day, artificially-sweetened sodas offer a good
    alternative (despite some ongoing controversy).

  * When buying food, don't fall for "diet", "reduced fat", "low
    sugar", or "low carbs" ice cream, yogurts, cakes, pizza, pasta,
    and so on - the differences are so minor that you might as well
    have the real thing and stop fooling yourself. Watch out for
    deceptive portion sizes, too. For example, Cheetos are labeled as
    150 kcal per "serving", but there are almost 10 servings in a
    regular bag! Frozen fries are another great example: they look
    pretty low-cal until you realize that a serving is just 10-15
    pieces or so - certainly not enough to make you feel full.

  * While dieting, try to drink a bit more and start taking OTC
    multivitamin supplements; they don't offer clear-cut benefits
    under normal circumstances, but they can compensate for mineral
    and vitamin deficiencies if you never had a particularly
    thoughtful diet, and are about to start eating less than you were
    accustomed to.

  * Probably don't hit the gym. Hold off with intense workouts at
    least until you are close to your target weight. Daily exercise
    schedules are hard to keep for more than a couple weeks,
    especially if you lead a busy life; on top of that, a drastic
    increase in physical activity can trigger cravings or upend your
    nutritional needs. If you are itching to burn some extra fat,
    incorporate less punishing activities into your daily routine -
    say, walking or leisurely biking to work.

  * Be in this for the long haul. Effortlessly losing 1-2 lbs per
    week while slowly developing better habits is far more meaningful
    than starving yourself for a month to get immediate but
    short-lived results. Get an accurate bathroom scale, take daily
    measurements first thing in the morning, calculate key
    milestones, and put it all in a spreadsheet to keep yourself
    honest and motivated. It will probably take 6-9 months to get the
    outcome you want; daily or weekly weight fluctuations are almost
    completely meaningless, but you should be seeing a consistent and
    predictable biweekly drop.

I can't promise that this approach will work for everyone, but after
trying countless other methods, this is roughly the formula that
worked for me.

Of course, if you are very obese or have any serious health
conditions, such as diabetes or CVD, talk to a doctor first. In such
situations, aggressive dieting can carry additional risks and calls
for some monitoring along the way; a routine blood test or an ECG
shouldn't cost much. And it goes without saying that if your diet
makes you feel listless or sick, it's definitely time to stop right
away!

Now, when it comes to fitness per se, I firmly believe that there is
no need to go overboard; good health is far more important than Rambo
skills. While getting buff may be a fun pastime for some young folks,
there are very few emergencies that would force you to run 30 miles
or climb a 20 foot wall. Being able to walk or bike for several hours
is likely good enough to deal with all practical scenarios we talked
about thus far.

3.7. Prepper commandment #7: Make friends with neighbors [link]

The thing about disasters is that they seldom unfold precisely as
planned. Perhaps you will lose a job and get robbed the same week.
Perhaps in the middle of a prolonged outage, you will find out that
some of your emergency supplies have been misplaced, damaged, or
spoiled. Maybe your plan to walk a mile to get drinking water from a
river will get foiled by a broken limb. And maybe a well thought-out
home defense strategy will prove worthless when standing eye to eye
with an angry mob of rioters armed with rocks.

In trying times, people always come together and find strength in
local communities. Even if you don't expect it, you will almost
certainly be able to count on the kindness of strangers. But your
odds can be greatly improved by getting to know your neighbors ahead
of time, by cultivating trust and mutual respect, and by getting a
sense of each others' toolkits and skills. In a grim situation, being
on good terms with a doctor or a veterinarian can quite literally
save your life. And heck, some rural communities in the US even
maintain communal stashes of emergency supplies!

Of course, it goes both ways: one will almost certainly find it
harder to get help if their neighbors still resent them for puking on
their doormat and constantly partying at night; so once again, not
being a jerk to other people is not just good manners, but a very
legitimate survival skill. Even if it's not really our nature, it
pays to say "hi", engage in small talk, and offer to help with minor
hurdles every now and then. It's good to bring your neighbors a pie
or some donuts, add them on Facebook, and try to find common
interests. Socialize with coworkers who live nearby, too. Even if the
zombie apocalypse never comes, it probably won't be a waste of your
time.

Now, many "true" preppers advise newcomers to keep mum about your
plans, so that in an emergency, you don't have to fend off armies of
freeloaders begging for a slice of your meager supplies - or worse
yet, trying to take them by force. I think that this attitude is
short-sighted; sure, it makes sense not to broadcast your plans to
the entire world, and there is no conceivable benefit to posting
Facebook selfies with your stash of freeze-dried food or with a pile
of cash. But the clear value of convincing some of your friends to
start prepping greatly outweighs the distant possibility that one of
them will attempt to raid your home the moment the power goes out.

3.8. Prepper commandment #8: Write down a response plan [link]

To cope with a true emergency, it's not enough to know the risks and
sit on a pile of survival gear: we need to plan ahead. If your house
is on fire, there may be no time to rifle through folders to gather
all your vital documents; if the floodwaters are rising or a chemical
tanker overturns on a nearby highway, it may be too late to start
thinking about refueling your car. And if you're stranded on a rural
road in a broken-down vehicle, you may sorely regret not putting any
drinking water in the trunk.

In fact, even in situations that don't unfold in such a dramatic way,
sketching out a plan can help you optimize spending and spot
potential problems early on. For example, there may be little merit
to stockpiling 50 lbs of rice if you can't possibly store enough
water to cook it all. But then, a quick look at the map may reveal
that there is a freshwater reservoir within a biking distance of your
home. Great - maybe all you need is a bike basket and a pair of spare
inner tubes.

So, here's a bit of homework: make a list of all the threats
discussed in this guide that seem to apply to you, alongside any
other contingencies you worry about. For each and every one of them,
draft a detailed, step-by-step preparedness and response plan that
sounds right given your life situation. Don't obsess over getting all
the details right; we'll try to refine your choices in section 4, and
even then, it may take several iterations to settle on an approach
you are really happy with. For now, simply list all the noteworthy
dangers, jot down some initial answers to the following questions,
and see where that takes you.

3.8.1. Threat assessment topic #1: Is it a priority? [link]

Do some research to make sure you are not wasting your time on
implausible risks. How likely is it that you would have to face this
particular danger, and how much damage can it conceivably cause? For
example, do you live in a 100-year flood zone? In the path of
tropical storms? In a high-crime neighborhood? Be sure to search
around and study publicly available resources; reaching out to local
emergency response organizations can be a good plan, too. Try to
focus on reputable sources. The science in doomsday movies and on
conspiracy websites seldom checks out.

(If you decide that you don't care about a particular risk, skip the
remaining questions and just move on to the next problem on your
list.)

3.8.2. Threat assessment topic #2: What do you need to be prepared? [
link]

Do you need to secure any supplies or make other arrangements to
prepare for this scenario? If you need to stockpile items, do you
have enough room? How long would these supplies last in an emergency,
and how often would you need to replace them in storage? Are there
any additional steps that you want to take to be in a better place a
month, a year, or five years from now? Make a detailed list and tally
the costs.

Be critical of any assumptions you are making in your plan: sure,
we've seen our share of disaster movies, but it pays to search for
statistics or historical accounts of how such emergencies actually
unfold in real life. Don't assume that all contingencies are covered
by a generic home insurance policy: for example, earthquake and flood
coverage is often sold separately (and costs a lot); and in any case,
even if the insurance eventually pays, you still need a short-term
survival strategy to deal with the loss.

When it comes to dangers such as break-ins, fires, or earthquakes, be
sure to walk around the house and take note of anything that
unnecessarily exacerbates the risk. Perhaps throwing out old junk,
reorganizing the contents of kitchen cabinets, adding earthquake
latches, or fixing a broken lock would be a better use of your time
than ordering space-age prepper gadgets from Amazon.

For natural disasters common in your region, you can find a lot of
relevant (if US-specific) advice on the webpages of CDC, FEMA, and
the American Red Cross. You can also have a look at the excellent,
detailed hazard maps available from FEMA, USGS, NOAA, and several
other agencies.

3.8.3. Threat assessment topic #3: How and when do you need to act? [
link]

Think about the exact, step-by-step playbook you would follow: what
actions would you need to take and how much time would you have to
carry out the plan? Will you be sheltering at home, or is this a
situation where you need to evacuate? If the answer is "it depends",
what would be the key factors, and how quickly would you need to make
the final call? If you pick the wrong option, how bad would it be?

Be prepared to make these decisions based on imperfect information.
For example, pandemic scares happen every couple of years - Ebola,
Zika, West Nile, avian flu, swine flu, SARS, MERS, and so on - and
most of them fizzle out. In the moment, you don't know if you're
dealing with the real thing; it follows that your plan needs to take
into account the ambiguity of the situation, enable you to make sound
decisions early on, and manage the fallout gracefully if you make the
wrong call.

There is a certain mystique surrounding survivalism, but bugging out
is seldom the answer. Leaving your home and venturing into the
unknown puts you at a tremendous disadvantage, so it's almost always
better to dig in; but if you have to leave, also ask yourself this:

  * ...where would I go? Crashing with a friend or a family member is
    vastly preferable to camping in the woods. Either way, is the
    location sufficiently far away to be unaffected by the event
    you're running away from? If you are driving, will you have
    enough gas to get there? (Again, would it help to have a habit of
    keeping the tank at least half full?) Are the roads likely to be
    congested or blocked? How many people will think of exactly the
    same location? What are the alternatives if the destination
    proves to be inaccessible, overcrowded, or unsafe?

  * ...what do I need to bring? How much can you realistically take
    with you when leaving by car, by bike, or on foot? What are the
    most important items, and will you be able to grab them quickly
    enough? To simplify things, would it make sense to maintain a
    small cache of supplies in the trunk of your car or at a friend's
    place - and if yes, what should be in that box?

3.8.4. Threat assessment topic #4: What if you are somewhere
unexpected? [link]

If you have a daytime job or go to school, there is a good chance
that the event you are preparing for could unfold while you are at
that location - or somewhere on the way. Do you need a special plan
to handle this possibility? Can you get back home easily? Do you need
water, food, money, or clothes to make that trip? How likely is it
that you would be hurt or stranded somewhere?

Separately from this, consider the risks of less frequent but more
dangerous trips. If you're sightseeing or taking a business trip to a
particularly inhospitable or remote destination, what do you need to
survive if, say, you get lost or your car breaks down?

3.8.5. Threat assessment topic #5: Do you need to talk to your
family? [link]

If you have a spouse, walk them through your plans and make sure they
can access the essential supplies and know how to use them in your
absence. If you have children, give them the very basics as well. For
example, in case of a fire, they should know the safest way out
without having to wait for you, and they need to know you won't be
upset if they kick out or cut a window screen; tell them how to react
to home intrusions and medical emergencies, too.

If you are separated from others and need to meet someplace other
than home, make sure that everybody will remember where the meeting
point is - and will know what to do if you can't make it on time.
Keeping some instructions in a wallet can go a long way.

3.8.6. Threat assessment topic #6: How can your plans backfire or
fail? [link]

Try to identify the aspects of your plan that are most likely to go
wrong, and come up with viable alternatives. Take a hard look at any
new problems you are creating, too: for example, if you want to store
gas in your garage, it will probably help in an evacuation, but will
also increase the odds of accidentally starting a serious fire. Or,
consider a far more prosaic case: if you are planning to stockpile
batteries or bottles of insect repellent, you should make sure they
can't leak and spoil other, more vital supplies nearby.

3.9. Prepper commandment #9: Plans have flaws, so also write a will [
link]

People die, sometimes unexpectedly and in silly, undignified ways.
Dying is seldom a pleasant affair and you generally don't get to
choose the "how" or "when", but you can make sure that the people who
depend on you are going to have the means to get by.

If you have children, a stay-at-home spouse, or any other people who
may be dependent on you, it makes sense to write a will. Even if you
don't have much of an estate to dispose of, your will can provide
instructions for the custody of minor kids, potentially shielding
them from abusive relatives or from foster care. This can be
particularly important for expats, whose closest surviving family
members may be in another country, difficult for the court to
pinpoint or communicate with.

In most jurisdictions, to draft a will, you don't need a lawyer; the
only skill that comes handy is the ability to express yourself
clearly and unambiguously. There are countless state- and
country-specific templates available online; in many cases, to carry
legal weight, the will just needs to be co-signed by disinterested
parties acting as witnesses - or cheaply notarized.

Where possible, you should name an executor in the will - a trusted
person who will follow your instructions and take care of the
formalities. If you don't, one will be probably appointed by the
court. This will be costly and may lead to disappointing outcomes.

When writing this document, describe your "ideal" scenario, but also
think about all the complications that may crop up and derail your
plan. For example, what if both you and your spouse die, but your
children survive? Or, who should get what share of the money if your
spouse is badly hurt and can't resume caring for the kids, so they
end up in the custody of a relative? What if your designated executor
or custodian is unable or unwilling to perform the duties? And in an
extreme case, if there are no surviving relatives, do you have any
favorite charity?

Of course, for the will to be executed, it needs to be found. It
makes sense to keep one copy in an intuitive location in your home,
because that's where people will be looking for it first; but if
there's a fire or a flood, that copy may be lost. So, make another
witnessed or notarized copy and give it to the executor or to a close
family member who doesn't live with you. Some folks don't recommend
creating multiple legally binding copies of the same will, since it
may cause some confusion, but from a disaster preparedness
perspective, it's a smart call.

In many states, even with an uncontested will, it may take many
months for the probate process to be wrapped up. If you are the sole
provider for your family, make sure that they will have the means to
survive in the meantime. The right kind of a shared bank account
("joint tenancy with right of survivorship") can do the trick;
"transfer on death" directives can also work, and although the
process is slightly more involved, it may result in a more favorable
tax treatment. There are several other approaches to this problem,
too, but they tend to be more dicey from the legal perspective - or
more costly and more time-consuming to set up.

4. Gear & supplies [link]

Yes! That's the part where he stops blabbing about personal finance
and wills, and we all get to shop for nunchucks and throwing knives!

4.1. Water [link]

...Gotcha! But yup, let's talk about the supplies and tools that may
enable you to prepare for common emergencies in a cost-effective way.

Even with adequate shelter and with limited physical activity, losing
access to water means certain death after a couple of truly rotten
days. Thankfully, in the developed world, this is a very uncommon
fate: emergencies that leave communities without potable water are
not rare, but when they happen, the government practically trips over
itself to immediately restore service or to get water trucks on the
road.

At the same time, it's not entirely wrong to worry that in some
circumstances, the response may not come quickly enough; heck, the
Department of Homeland Security says that for the first 72 hours
after a disaster, you may be on your own and should have enough
supplies to survive. The odds of ending up in a real pickle may be
modest, but the stakes are extremely high - and compared to the
complexity of preparing to some other contingencies, the cost of
stockpiling some drinking water is practically nil. If nothing else,
when a calamity strikes, you would have one less thing to worry
about.

An argument can be made that even in an emergency, potable water is
never too far away; after all, most human settlements have been
erected near natural reservoirs: rivers, lakes, or easily reached
underground aquifers. But this is an oversimplification. In rural
areas, water supply can be fairly meager and vulnerable to weather
fluctuations and other cyclic phenomena. For cities, it is true that
many of them are seated on the banks of major lakes or rivers, but
suburban sprawl can easily put some residents 10-20 miles away from
the nearest reservoir; on top of that, some of the 20th century
settlements in semi-arid and desert climates rely on water hauled
from tens or hundreds of miles away.

Heck, even if you do have a nearby water source, it may take
surprisingly little to spoil it: for example, after an unusually
powerful storm, floodwaters can carry toxic sewage from treatment
plants and into rivers and lakes. All in all, stockpiling some amount
of drinking water is just a smart, low-effort prepper strategy,
especially in areas with an elevated likelihood of large-scale
natural disasters or industrial accidents.

This brings us to the "how" - and more importantly, "how much". The
average person in the US consumes somewhere between 50 and 100
gallons a day. A lot of this goes toward uses such as long showers,
laundry, dishwashing, and flushing the toilet - but even if we take
out some of the less essential uses, the minimum consumption that
allows us to continue many of the key household activities is
probably in excess of 10-20 gallons a day. On the other end of the
spectrum, the absolute minimum water intake, as estimated by the US
military, is somewhere around one quart per person per day; but note
that this assumes no weather extremes, no substantial exertion, and
no immediate hygiene needs.

In the short haul, when all you really need is to stay hydrated,
storing about 1.5 to 2 gallons per household member - enough for
perhaps up to a week of very judicious use - should provide a viable
if modest buffer for emergencies. Store-bought gallon jugs are pretty
cheap, and easy to squeeze in just about anywhere; if you keep them
away from sunlight and heat, they should last 5+ years before needing
to be rotated or thrown out. The main problem is that they tend to
leak, so if you're unlucky, they may ruin cabinets or wooden floors;
if this is a concern, HDPE gallon jugs or thoroughly rinsed 2 liter
soda bottles may be a better bet.

Of course, that's the bare minimum - but if you have a garage, a
basement, or other unused storage space, I would actually recommend
going a bit further and grabbing one or two 5 gallon cans per every
household member. Although multi-week water outages are very
unlikely, this simply gives you a more comfortable safety margin: if
something goes awfully wrong and it becomes clear that help is not
coming any time soon, you will still have time to look for
alternatives or evacuate. A reserve also puts you in a better
situation if it's unusually hot or if you have any urgent hygiene
needs. The cans are very easy to use: wash them with a small amount
of regular, non-scented laundry bleach, rinse, and fill up with tap
water. Rotate the contents every 2-4 years or so.

If you want to prepare for longer-term disasters, or if you have a
large family, you can make realistic plans only if you live in a
single-family home. This decision alone may give you access to 50-100
gallons of water sitting in the water heater (unless it's a tankless
design). Next, if you have some backyard or garage space, you may opt
for relatively inexpensive 55 gallon plastic barrels, taking up about
as much space a small curbside trash can. Another common option,
costing about the same per gallon stored, is a 275 gallon IBC tote.
Such solutions can easily provide water for an entire family for up
to several months, with some allowance for laundry and hygiene needs.
Some preppers stockpile even more - but really, if you waited this
long and the conditions are still dire, it may be high time to hit
the road and find some other place to live.

While home storage of water is not hugely complicated, things get a
bit dicey when you have to evacuate - or if you end up being stranded
away from home. If you have a car, your best bet is to put together a
small emergency supplies box that, among other essentials, houses one
or two 1-gallon jugs of water - and keep it in your trunk at all
times. But without a car, your prospects are less cheerful: in case
of a widespread disaster, your range will be severely limited, and
even if you take some modest amount of water with you, you will need
to reach a more hospitable location within 1-2 days. A bicycle, a
plan, and a good map will help. A folding cart or an inconspicuous
box of supplies kept at work may be viable choices, too.

As for drinking untreated water: contrary to popular beliefs, in
temperate climates, you are generally not taking huge risks by
drinking from a backcountry lake or a creek; if it looks and smells
all right, it's quite likely fine. On the flip side, a bout of
diarrhea due to giardiasis is probably the last thing you want to
experience in such a situation, so it's good to take precautions if
you can. Boiling your drinking water is a very robust method of
eradicating microscopic wildlife (more about that soon). When boiling
is not an option, adding several drops of regular, old-fashioned
laundry bleach per gallon of water, then letting it sit for 30-60
minutes, will have a roughly comparable effect. Note that bleach has
a limited shelf life; you will need to rotate it every 1-2 years or
so. When on the go, sodium dichloroisocyanurate pills (AquaTabs) can
be more convenient than liquid bleach and work just as well.

There are several other water purification techniques, including
iodine, various types of filters, or even very expensive desalination
systems. The recent Flint water crisis highlights the value of
permanently installed and well-maintained RO units. But for
short-term survival, my take is that most of the filtration systems
targeted at preppers increase costs without offering clear-cut
benefits. And really, don't overthink it: if the choice is between
dehydration and drinking straight from a scummy pond, drink from the
pond.

4.2. Food [link]

You can survive several weeks without food, but you won't be having a
very good time. Food is costly, its supply is fairly easily
disrupted, and it's a resource that the government may be much less
inclined to deliver to your doorstep when things go wrong. So, with a
variety of reasonable scenarios to worry about - anything from
natural disasters to economic downturns - it just makes sense to be
able to feed yourself even if you can't buy groceries for a while.

Of course, everybody has some non-perishable food around the house,
but it's much better to create a dedicated stash: this way, you can
count on the supplies always being at hand, and you can stockpile
something more nutritious than stale crackers, a suspect bottle of
olive oil, and a rusty can of tomato sauce. With a well thought-out
stockpile of ready-made food, it's also a lot easier to hit the road.

For short-term survival, the highest priority is just energy -
preferably in a form that doesn't cost much, lasts forever, requires
no preparation, and takes up little space. Generally, you're looking
at high-sugar or high-fat foods. Some of the common zero-preparation
options include:

  * High-sugar energy bars. Grocery store brands may have limited
    shelf life, but several prepper-targeted, Mylar-packed varieties
    can last 5-10 years. Such products are inexpensive (~300 kcal per
    dollar), convenient, and energy-dense (~2,000 kcal per pound). On
    the flip side, they are probably pretty nauseating as your
    primary food. Imagine living solely off Jelly Bellies for a week.

  * Dry survival rations. Sold under several brands, including
    Datrex, ER Bar, S.O.S., Grizzly, and more. Biscuit-like, less
    sugary and with a more agreeable taste than energy bars -
    somewhat reminiscent of shortbread. In my book, S.O.S. and Datrex
    taste best. Very inexpensive (~550 kcal per dollar) and should
    last 5-10 years when stored in a cool place. A tolerable choice
    for short- to medium-term nutrition in an emergency. Easy to
    pack, giving you ~2,200 kcal per pound.

  * Canned meat, veggies, or fruit. Storage life in excess of 20
    years (regardless of "best by" dates). Tasty, relatively cheap
    (~200-300 kcal per dollar), and the choice is pretty broad.
    Fruits, veggies, and soups are not very energy-dense (~200 kcal
    per pound), making them impractical for hiking or bugging out; on
    the flip side, the syrup may provide some additional hydration.
    Meats fare much better, tipping the scales at around 1,500 kcal
    per pound. Canned foods are a good option for longer-term
    planning, provided that you have enough shelf space.

  * Freeze-dried dinners. Popular with hikers. Extremely lightweight
    (up to 2,500 kcal per pound) and surprisingly tasty. The most
    reputable brand is Mountain House. Fairly expensive on a calorie
    basis (100-150 kcal per $1), but you get a choice of raspberry
    crumble, chicken with dumplings, bacon and eggs, and everything
    in between. Storage life in excess of 15 years. The drawback is
    that they need some boiling water to reconstitute (cold water
    will also work, but not make a tasty meal).

  * Military MREs. I don't find them particularly tasty, but they are
    popular among preppers. A bit on the heavy side (usually around
    1,100 kcal per pound). Portable warm food with a ton of different
    menus available - although for the best price, you usually need
    to buy a variety box and can't cherry-pick. Moderately expensive
    (~150 kcal per dollar). Shelf life around 5-7 years, depending on
    the manufacturer and on storage conditions.

  * Nuts and peanut butter. At ~3,000 kcal per pound, nuts are
    surprisingly energy-dense for something that can be eaten as-is.
    Relatively cheap (~400 kcal per dollar). The major drawback is a
    relatively short shelf life, probably not exceeding a year or
    two. Nuts also do not provide complete nutrition, but that's only
    a concern in the long haul.

  * Vegetable shortening. Extremely cheap and energy-dense (2,500
    kcal per dollar, 4,100 per pound), making it a unique choice when
    space or money is in critically short supply. In contrast to
    other common fats, store-brought cans of vegetable shortening
    (Crisco or the like) should stay fine for 4 years or more. The
    product is very bland, but it's perfectly palatable when spread
    on crackers, mixed with bacon bits, and so forth. It does not
    provide complete nutrition - but again, that won't harm you in
    the short haul.

For folks who want to focus on the most plausible risks, I suggest
stockpiling dry survival rations to last around 2-3 weeks; seven
3,600 kcal packets per person should do the trick. That may sound
like a lot, but keep in mind that it may take a while for stores to
reopen after an earthquake or a flood - so it's not a bad plan to
play it safe. And while eating ration bars for a week sounds bland,
you may be in no mood for home cooking when you have to fix a
collapsed roof and the utilities are cut off.

For those who are worried about less likely, longer-term
contingencies - or who want to limit their future grocery expenses in
case of a financial shortfall - a more varied stockpile to cover 3-4
months is a reasonable choice. At that timescale, it's still smart to
begin with some number of hassle-free survival rations, but it is
important to complement them with a more palatable menu: freeze-dried
or canned meals, MREs, or cheap home-made food. Crisco aside, some of
the nutritious and easily stored staples include Mylar-bagged,
oxygen-scavenged white rice, white flour, dried beans and grains,
instant mashed potatoes and oatmeal, pasta, sugar, honey, powdered
milk, salt, spices, and so forth; when stored properly, all of them
can last 5 years or more. Freeze-dried or garden-grown fruit and
veggies can add some flavor to your post-disaster cooking, too. Heck,
you can even buy pretty tasty butter, chicken breast, canned bacon,
and bread-like Pilot crackers with 10+ year shelf life (although they
are not cheap).

As for the appropriate calorie intake: almost all adults can function
normally on 1,500 calories a day for extended periods of time,
although they will slowly lose weight (probably not more than half a
pound a week). If you are skinny or if you're aiming for surviving
many months with no access to other food, budgeting 2,000-2,200 kcal
per day is a safer bet. Since you would have to exercise portion
control, it pays to focus on satiating foods: high-fiber,
high-protein, or high-fat.

For hardcore preppers convinced that they may be left with no access
to food for a very long time, it would be also important to maintain
a robust intake of protein; somewhere around 40-50 g per day is
believed to be optimal, although you certainly don't need to observe
it religiously. Ready-made protein-rich foods include some energy
bars, most dry ration packets, some freeze-dried dinners, canned
meat, and military MREs; smaller amounts can be found in some
veggies, too. You can also stockpile protein powder -it's bland but
relatively cheap ($1 per day). Freeze-dried scrambled eggs, powdered
milk, and related products, including long shelf life canned or
powdered cheeses and pancake mixes, work well, too. As mentioned
earlier, protein and dietary fiber also have a well-established
satiating effect, helping you maintain a balanced diet - which can
otherwise be tricky when snacking on high-calorie foods. Oh: having
some OTC multivitamins may be a good plan, especially to supplement
vitamin C.

Of course, some dedicated preppers worry about even more exotic,
post-apocalyptic scenarios mentioned in section 2.3, basically aiming
for indefinite self-sufficiency. I don't think it's a particularly
sound concern, but if the prospect of a civilizational collapse keeps
you up at night, I think the options are limited, short of moving to
a rural community where you could farm, fish, or hunt. Some urban
survivalists fantasize about trapping local squirrels, pigeons, or
raccoons - but they would run out of food very fast. Small urban and
suburban gardens are usually difficult to maintain and don't produce
enough to feed a family, too.

4.3. Fuel and electricity [link]

It takes just a single downed power line to knock out your furnace,
AC unit, cooktop, refrigerator, and to make the lights go out; and
when such an outage happens due to a larger-scale natural disaster,
repairs can easily take days or even weeks. We think of fuel as a
more dependable resource, but if 1979 is any guide, you only need one
well-timed revolution in the Middle East to make it nearly impossible
to fill up a car in some parts of the United States. Of course, such
events are usually inconvenient, not disastrous, so it's perfectly
fine not to dwell on them in your plans. At the same time, it doesn't
hurt to take a closer look at what's at stake - and what the
potential solutions may be.

Of all the plausible scenarios, another major oil crisis would
probably hit most car-owning families the hardest, limiting their
ability to get food or to take care of other, everyday needs.
Generally speaking, there is no simple fix: keeping a gallon or two
in your garage won't make much of a difference, while maintaining
significant reserves of gas for personal use can be done safely (and
legally) only if you own a large, rural plot of land. Electric
vehicles, especially if charged from rooftop solar panels, can offer
a wonderful backup in some parts of the world, but they carry a very
hefty price tag. The best workaround may be the least inspired one:
if you own a car, you can always keep your tank at least half full (a
familiar mantra by now), and have enough food and other essentials to
be able to wait out the worst.

A service interruption or a fuel crisis that takes your cooktop out
of service for a week or two is the other hardship perhaps worth
worrying about. It's not just about eating well: in an emergency, the
ability to boil water is one of the best methods of making it safe to
drink. While the owners of rural homes with 500 gallon propane tanks
may have little to worry about, the rest of us would not be having
fun. For those who cook using municipal natural gas, a simple backup
is a small countertop electric burner. Conversely, for people with
electric ranges, a portable camping stove and a handful of dirt-cheap
1 lb propane tanks can be a safe, no-hassle choice. A pound of
propane can boil around 12 gallons of water; the entire setup is also
very easy to put in a backpack if you ever need to leave - so it's
basically worth getting either way.

No heating in the middle of a particularly nasty winter can be
problematic, too - although it's mostly a matter of comfort, not
survival. In most places, with robust shelter and adequate clothing,
bedding, and food, it's fairly hard to freeze to death at home (but
note that the cold may make some infections or medical conditions
worse; you may have to worry about frozen water pipes, too). The
situation can become a lot more dire if you are on foot in the middle
of nowhere, so truly hardcore, wilderness-minded preppers may have
something to ponder about; but hauling a sufficient amount of fuel is
typically impractical to begin with, so their best bet would be warm
clothing, improvised shelter, and the ability to build a fire. We'll
talk about that in the section that deals with camping supplies.

In some parts of the world, extreme heat can be far more dangerous
than cold. When AC is not an option, it's usually possible to avoid
trouble by staying in the shade, drinking a lot, and limiting
physical activity. If it gets really nasty, the best way to cool
yourself is to wet your clothing and hair, then stand in front of a
running fan. You have a bigger problem if you happen to be stranded
in a broken down car somewhere in the middle of a desert - but
carrying some water and several other supplies in your trunk should
help a great deal. More about that soon.

During a prolonged blackout, keeping flashlights, radios, and cell
phones running can become a challenge of its own. The most
cost-effective approach is to stick to devices that can take regular
AA, AAA, or PP3 (9V) batteries; modern alkaline cells have very long
shelf lives (10 years), can be bought cheaply in bulk, and will do
the trick for almost all portable electronics you can think of. Of
course, modern power-hungry smartphones are a notable exception to
this rule. For that, you can always try solar chargers - they work
well, but are a bit fragile and may not perform too amazingly in
wooded areas or on overcast days. You can also go for hand-crank
generators (fragile and labor-intensive) or AA power banks (mixed
reviews). But ultimately, also allow for the possibility of not being
able to call others for a while.

For powering more serious electrical equipment, a generator is a
popular choice for people living in the backwoods. That said, this
option comes with an interesting trade-off: if you were ever to face
a contingency that may last for a longer while, it may be more
important to conserve fuel for driving, cooking, or heating, than to
use it for keeping the lights on. A fully-fledged solar installation
helps you avoid such dilemmas, but costs an arm and a leg. A possible
compromise is a jury-rigged solar setup done at a smaller scale: if
you hook up a 100W panel to a deep-cycle lead-acid battery and a
low-cost inverter, you gain the ability to recharge laptops and
phones, or even power several desk lamps, a decent-size fan, or a
small refrigerator. The whole contraption costs around $250 and is
easy to stow away if you're not very short on space.

That's probably about it... well, all right: this section focused
chiefly on the immediate consequences of an outage, but a severe fuel
crisis or a long-lasting power grid failure would have profound,
cascading effects on the entire economy - probably including
out-of-control unemployment, high inflation, product shortages, and
more. That said, these are the outcomes we can already prepare for by
other means. As for extreme preppers who aspire to long-term energy
self-sufficiency, I think it's going to be a difficult feat: even
with a solar installation, under constant cycling, the batteries may
not last much longer than 5 years. Short of finding a cheap Soviet
RTG on eBay, they may simply have to adapt to living without
electricity or gas.

4.4. Electronics [link]

Although this may sound very disappointing to a typical geek, the
list of genuinely useful prepper electronics is pretty short. Here's
what I can honestly recommend:

  * A large pen drive. Computer hardware failures are far more common
    than space zombies or mutant superbugs. Because of this, one of
    your best investments can be a decent pen drive with a copy of
    all your important files; in case of bank mix-ups, throw in
    copies of recent account statements, too. And hey, if want to
    feel like a cyber-ninja - you can always grab a copy of Wikipedia
    . It will undoubtedly come handy for rebuilding the civilization,
    and it's just 12 GB.

  * Flashlights or headlamps. Unless you are living in a rural area,
    you probably don't need an eye-searing torch that chews through
    ten boxes of batteries in a day. It's better to get several
    small, high-quality AA flashlights or headlamps that give you at
    least 20 hours on low power; I'd keep one near your bed, and
    another in your car or in an emergency stash.

  * A lantern. Not essential, but useful for preparing food, dining,
    reading, and other fun blackout activities where a narrow beam
    would be less comfortable than omnidirectional light.

  * An old-fashioned radio receiver. A battery-operated AM/FM radio
    will be a good way to stay in the loop if cell networks and the
    Internet are down, and the civilization is temporarily banished
    back to the dark ages (aka the 90s). A cheap, brand-name model,
    such as Sony ICFP26, will do just fine.

  * Handheld FRS/GMRS radios. Many preppers obsess about
    long-distance communications, but in a typical emergency,
    chatting with people 100 miles away is not a priority. In
    contrast, a hand-held two-way radio can be very useful for
    keeping in touch with your friends and family during any
    prolonged outage. Whenever possible, pick a device that accepts
    the kind of batteries you can stockpile cheaply. Expect a range
    of 2-3 miles in rural regions, a mile or so in the suburbs, and
    maybe 2-4 blocks in high-rise environments - no matter what the
    manufacturer claims.

    Ham radio is a longer-distance option, but generally requires a
    license; if you are interested in amateur radio, getting a
    Technician class license in the United States is fairly
    straightforward and costs around $15, but requires you to spend
    8-10 hours memorizing answers to questions - some useful, some
    not. With all that said and done, ham radio can help you
    coordinate local response to more substantial emergencies,
    together with local volunteer members of organizations such as
    ARES or RACES. For personal communications, handheld 2m radios
    tend to have a slightly better range than GMRS, but the real perk
    is being able to buy a stationary or car-mounted transceiver, or
    to use a repeater, for considerably greater reach - from 20 to
    200 miles, sometimes more.

    (I have some in-depth notes about handheld radios here.)

  * A thermometer that won't run out of juice. Responding to serious
    emergencies can be stressful and physically taxing, making it
    easy to catch nasty infections along the way. To know how bad
    things have gotten, it's good to have a reliable way to take body
    temperature; keep in mind that many low-cost axillary
    thermometers use LR41 batteries, and that you probably don't have
    any spares lying around. A traditional glass thermometer will
    also work, but is more fragile.

  * A small space heater and a fan. Sometimes useful for coping with
    temperature extremes. Decide for yourself if you need it. If yes,
    pretty much any make and model will do.

  * A dashcam or a security camera for your home. We'll talk about
    these later on.

Except for flashlights, don't keep any batteries in your emergency
electronics, as to minimize the danger of an electrolyte leak messing
up the device.

Of course, there are many other high-tech gadgets popular among some
of the more affluent and paranoid preppers - anything from satellite
phones, to night vision goggles, to heated insoles. In all
likelihood, none of that is worth the cost. If I had to pick two
extravagant "doomsday" accessories that could conceivably be useful
to some people if something truly awful happens to the world, I'd go
with a waterproof hiking GPS unit and a portable Geiger counter. Both
can be powered by AAA/AA batteries and cost under $200. (We'll talk
about Geiger counters and their relative merits a bit later on.)

Inspired by science fiction books and a handful of real-world
incidents, some hardcore survivalists worry that their portable
electronics or vehicles could be disabled by EMP weapons or solar
flares. The concern over solar flares is misplaced; the threat of EMP
is a tad more valid, but even if EMP warfare came to pass, small
electronics and quasi-shielded automotive circuitry would probably
not be permanently affected by anything other than a close blast.
Power plants and transmission lines are a different story. Heck, in
1989, solar flares knocked out a good chunk of the Canadian power
grid. Still, for that, a surge protector works better than tinfoil.

4.5. Essential tools [link]

While not all urban-dwelling readers may be particularly interested
in DIY work, there are times when it's hard to call a handyman. So,
almost every home will benefit from having a well-maintained
"emergency" toolbox containing several items useful for performing
basic repairs and dealing with other minor incidents:

  * A cheap pocket knife,

  * A basic, no-frills multitool,

  * A small adjustable wrench,

  * At least 100 ft of paracord or UHMWPE rope,

  * A big roll of duct tape,

  * A rudimentary sewing kit,

  * A decent pen or a mechanical pencil,

  * A pack of writing pads,

  * Sharp, large scissors,

  * Needle-point tweezers,

  * A compact but sturdy hammer,

  * A box of 1" nails,

  * A usable can opener,

  * A sealed bag with disposable lighters or several boxes of
    matches.

Having a medium-size bucket at home is a must, too. If you own a
bicycle and are expecting to use it in emergencies, it would be wise
to throw in a bike tool, several tire levers, a patch kit, one or two
spare tubes, and a portable pump. Finally, for those who are worried
about the decidedly unlikely prospect of having to escape home and
fight off radscorpions in the wilderness, a lightweight hatchet, a
comfortable saw, a larger fixed-blade knife, a folding shovel, a
compass and some matches or a lighter in a waterproof container can
come handy in several ways.

A subset of this is also worth keeping in a car. It's not just about
zombies or life-and-death situations: if you hit something in a
parking lot and your bumper cover comes off or your liftgate won't
stay shut, it's nice to be able to tie it down and get back on the
road. Similarly, a shovel can help you get back on the road after
getting stuck in snow or mud. But speaking of survival: a pocket
knife, kept within reach (e.g., in the center console), can be used
to cut seat belts if you get into a wreck; and in a pinch, it will
double as a self-defense tool. Belt cutters can also fulfill that
first task, and may be easier to operate if you are hurt - although
they are less useful for other purposes. I'd also recommend getting
an automatic center punch - it's a neat $5 tool that effortlessly
shatters tempered glass (i.e., side and rear windows) when the doors
won't budge. It works way better than many of the specialized car
escape devices sold on the Internet.

If you own a house, especially in a region prone to earthquakes or
tropical storms, you should probably have a sledgehammer, a chainsaw
(with a charged battery or some fuel at hand), bolt cutters, and a
pry bar. These heavy tools are essential for clearing debris and
getting to whatever's underneath. Keep them far from your other
supplies: if your primary stash gets pinned under other junk, you can
use the tools to get it out. Don't store pry bars and similar
equipment in plain sight; robbers often use found tools to force
patio doors, to pop safes, or worse.

No matter where you live, it's also nice to have some materials at
hand to patch up broken windows on a stormy night. Window security
film can be used to keep broken glass in place, while a roll of thick
plastic sheeting or tarp from a hardware store can come handy for
temporary repairs; space permitting, you may also want to keep
several wooden planks. For suburban and rural homes in regions prone
to extreme weather, pressboard and sandbags may be worthwhile, too.
Traditional sandbags tend to be extremely labor-intensive to fill, so
plan accordingly; water-filled barriers (Hydrabarrier) are much
easier to deploy, but cost more. Absorbent sock-style barriers can be
used to deal with minor flooding, but only up to an inch of water or
so; they may be less useful for inclement weather, but may prove
indispensable for dealing with backed-up sewage or similar ills.

And now, for something completely different: during a longer water
outage, you won't be able to flush your toilet - a little-appreciated
but grave hygiene risk. When living in a single-family home, you
should probably get a shovel and a pickax: they are useful in the
backyard either way, but if push comes to shove, such tools allow you
to dig out a latrine and address the sanitation problem in a fairly
sustainable way. Of course, dumping bagged human waste into trash
will work for a while, too, but it quickly becomes a liability.

(Folks living next to a pond or a creek, or who have a rainwater
collection system, might be able to use this for flushing; but
hauling gallons upon gallons of water for flushing from a more
distant location is bound to get old quick.)

4.6. Camping equipment [link]

Many hardcore preppers spend their time fantasizing about heroic
survival in the endless, pristine wilderness, equipped with nothing
more than a bug out bag, a trusty rifle, and their own iron will. But
even in far more realistic situations, being able to set up a camp
can be a valuable skill. During mass evacuations, there is always a
good chance of being stuck on a congested highway for a day or two,
or reaching your destination only to find out that all the hotels and
motels are full. The benefits are clear for some small-scale
emergencies, too: if backed-up sewage makes your home uninhabitable
for a while, setting up a tent in a friend's backyard can be much
cheaper than staying in a hotel for several weeks.

Above all, the nice thing about it is that camping gear doesn't need
to just sit in your closet, collecting dust on the off chance that
something bad may happen a decade from now. You can simply grab it
and head out for the weekend every now and then; camping is fun,
doubly so for kids. It's also a great opportunity to test some of
your other equipment, and spot potential flaws in your preparedness
plans.

Especially if you're living in the suburbs or in the countryside, I
recommend having the following items at hand:

  * Maps. Essential for finding hospitable destinations, getting
    there, and finding alternative routes if something goes wrong. I
    suggest getting both a country road atlas and a more detailed map
    of your county or state. If you have a car, just keep them there
    - they may also come handy if you get lost and your cell phone
    dies.

  * Weather-appropriate clothing. A well-maintained stash of warm
    clothes, including waterproof ponchos and rain boots. In a pinch,
    you can also use metallized Mylar blankets: tie them with some
    tape to make improvised rainproof, windproof, or thermally
    insulating clothing and hats, shoe liners, and more. The blankets
    cost very little and take up virtually no room, so I strongly
    suggest keeping some in your car. If you're stranded in an
    inhospitable place, they could save your life.

  * Shelter. The usual combo is an appropriately-sized, waterproofed
    tent, a set of sleeping bags & pads, and possibly some
    compressible or inflatable pillows for comfort. In cold weather
    or during heavy rainfall, it's also possible to shelter in your
    vehicle, with Mylar blankets serving as a substitute for sleeping
    bags; and on a hot day, the same material and some rope can be
    used to improvise a shade. Again, the blankets are worth having
    in your car at all times.

  * Food prep gear. As discussed in section 4.3, one of the best ways
    to cook food or to sterilize drinking water on the go is to have
    several portable propane tanks, a miniature stove, and a
    lightweight covered pot. Some plastic dinnerware can be a nice
    touch. Make sure that the stove fits your propane tanks; you may
    need a Lindal valve adapter if not.

  * Mosquito repellent. Yep. End up in the wrong part of the woods
    and these bastards can suck you dry. Go for 40% DEET 20%
    picaridin. Actually, get both.

Of course, there is also the luxury option: buying a camper or an RV.
Such vehicles are frowned upon in many cities, but if you are in a
rural area, if it's within your budget, and if you can see yourself
using it regularly, go for it - and don't look back.

4.7. Hygiene, health, environmental protection [link]

Humans are pretty fragile. In many of the more serious scenarios
discussed in this guide, your survival or well-being may be
critically dependent on the ability to deal with incidental medical
emergencies, to curb the spread of communicable diseases, or to
maintain sanitary conditions at home.

Of course, there are situations where prompt medical attention is
simply a necessity; for example, although it may be theoretically
possible for an untrained enthusiast equipped with an anatomy
handbook to perform appendectomy, the odds of the patient surviving
are pretty damn low. That said, outside the domain of major surgery,
the outlook is not necessarily as grim - so even when professional
help is not available right away, not all hope may be lost.

4.7.1. Health & hygiene topic #1: Basic cleaning supplies [link]

Before we dive into heady stuff, let's talk good housekeeping!

It pays to be prepared for nasty spills or sanitation emergencies. In
addition to some of the tools discussed in earlier chapters, a good
starting point is a large box of 13 gallon trash bags, another box of
thick, 42 gallon contractor bags, a set of disposable nitrile gloves,
some rubbing alcohol, and a bottle of regular laundry bleach. Rubbing
alcohol is an excellent solvent and a rapid-evaporating disinfectant;
bleach is a potent, long-lasting biocide and a great odor
neutralizer. Oh - as noted earlier, an absorbent sock-style barrier
may be useful for containing particularly nasty spills, too.

When it comes to comfort and personal hygiene, I would also suggest
stockpiling a carton of toilet paper, a pack of old-school soap bars,
a bottle of no-rinse body wash and shampoo (to conserve water), some
antiperspirant, toothpaste and a toothbrush, nail clippers or
scissors, and several disposable razors. At home, such items can come
handy only during prolonged emergencies; but as a part of your in-car
kit, they are invaluable if you are ever stuck somewhere or forget to
take your toiletries with you on a camping trip.

As mentioned earlier, water outages can create an unpleasant problem
with the disposal of human waste. While a bucket with a trash bag can
be used as an impromptu toilet, to keep the conditions sanitary, some
form of waste treatment is a must. A cheap option is pouring a layer
of clumping (bentonite-based) kitty litter over it after every use;
other budget solutions include cement and lime. More expensive
choices are gelling agents and RV waste digestants.

Laundry is another (if slightly less pressing) problem that many
preppers may have to reckon with. Well-chosen antiperspirants and
BZK-based antimicrobal sprays do wonders to control bodily odors and
extend the life of undergarments. Beyond that, careful hand-washing
and rinsing techniques help minimize waste - but when there is no
running water, doing laundry is still going to be a rare luxury for
most.

4.7.2. Health & hygiene topic #2: Visibility on the road [link]

In addition to assorted tools and hygiene supplies, your car kit
should probably include a high-visibility vest; if your vehicle gives
up life, it's better to be visible when trying to revive it or
walking to get help. I'm less convinced about the benefits of
carrying flares or flare guns; while they can be useful in serious
emergencies, they also pose some fire risk.

4.7.3. Health & hygiene topic #3: Medical education [link]

Before you even think about self-medicating or treating wounds, you
should get a reasonably systematic understanding of emergency
medicine. I recommend getting "Wilderness Medicine: Beyond First
Aid": it is accessible, focuses on situations where diagnostic and
treatment facilities are limited, and goes well beyond the basics.
Just as importantly, it avoids weird spiritual, homeopathic, or
naturopathic claims that often creep up in prepper books.

Two other publications I can recommend are "Where There is No Doctor"
and "Where There is No Dentist" by the Hesperian Foundation. They pay
less attention to contemporary meds or nuanced emergency procedures,
and spend more time on holistic, community-oriented care for
practitioners in some of the most impoverished regions of the world.
This probably makes the publications worthwhile for hardcore preppers
who worry about widespread, long-term cataclysms.

Now, even after reading all these, don't get too cocky: there are
good reasons why it takes about 10 years to become a doctor, and why
it involves not just reading a book or two, but also dissecting
cadavers and watching other medics at work. When trying to render
medical aid, not understanding the limits of your knowledge can
literally kill.

4.7.4. Health & hygiene topic #4: Common meds [link]

When living in squalor conditions and running short on supplies, even
seemingly prosaic medical conditions can become life-threatening. For
example, in less developed countries, otherwise non-lethal diarrheal
diseases cause almost 2.5 million deaths every year. The reason is
simple: without proper care, the disease makes it easy for the
victims to get terminally dehydrated or succumb to severe electrolyte
imbalance.

And it's not all about dying, too: a nasty toothache or a
debilitating allergy can make it very difficult to stay productive
and alert. With all that in mind, my list of essential and easily
available prepper medicines includes ibuprofen (pain relief),
cetirizine (allergy management), amoxicillin (broad-spectrum
antibiotic), loperamide (anti-diarrheal), meclizine (prevents
vomiting), miconazole nitrate (treats fungal skin infections),
bacitracin ointment (bacterial skin infections), topical lidocaine
(anesthetic), and hydrocortisone cream (anti-itch). For disinfecting
your hands and cleaning wounds, benzalkonium chloride wipes can work
pretty well; for burns, many people swear by hydrogel dressing or
creams, too. Finally, for treating severe dehydration, try oral
rehydration packs.

Manufacturers' expiration dates on all meds are very conservative,
but even the US government intentionally ignores them for its
stockpiles of shelf-stable drugs. As far as I can tell, when stored
in a fridge, all of these products should be good for 5+ years.

Of course, if you need any prescription meds to survive, try to get a
reserve. Except for the case of narcotic painkillers, most doctors
should be quite willing to help. In contrast to the shelf-stable
substances discussed earlier on, be very careful with expiration
dates if your stockpile includes any easily perishable drugs (say,
insulin).

A handful of OTC dietary supplements may be useful for treating some
chronic conditions in situations where prescription drugs are not
available - but if you want to learn more, be prepared to wade
through a sea of low-quality research and outright quackery.
Preliminary but somewhat plausible findings include the apparent
antidepressant properties of saffron and fish oil, the beneficial
effects of curcumin on some types of chronic pain, or the utility of
berberine and salacia reticulata in managing type 2 diabetes. Again,
tread carefully; examine.com is a good starting point for getting the
data behind some of the claims.

Ah, one more thing: for you car kit, I recommend getting some
ibuprofen and caffeine pills. Sure, if you are getting sleepy, you
should pull over and get some rest - but if you really can't,
caffeine can help you stay alert. Note that it's possible to
overdose; the symptoms are typically just very unpleasant, but in
rare cases, can be life-threatening.

4.7.5. Health & hygiene topic #5: Dental emergencies [link]

Blame modern diets, blame our longevity, or blame the mistakes of
mother nature - but the bottom line is that for most humans, dental
problems are a question of "when", not "if". And when excruciating
pain strikes at an inopportune time, it's really no laughing matter:
in absence of adequate medical care, tooth problems have been known
to push some people to the verge of suicide.

Unfortunately for preppers, the management of serious pain in an
emergency situation is tricky: virtually all the potent painkillers
have narcotic properties and are very illegal to buy or possess
without a prescription. Fixing the underlying tooth problem can be
similarly elusive: you need expert knowledge and a collection of
expensive and bulky tools: high-speed drills, suction units, and so
forth. In the end, the best preparedness strategy is just prevention:
take good care of your mouth and stop by for a routine checkup at
least once a year.

Of course, while this approach reduces the odds of being blindsided
by a painful problem, it does not make the risk go away: a chipped
tooth or a painful abscess can strike with virtually no warning. If
you can't see a dentist right away, OTC painkillers can offer partial
relief, but no amount of ibuprofen will let you forget about an
exposed nerve. Topical benzocaine ointments may work better in some
situations, but they don't last very long. Sometimes, swishing some
cold water in your mouth, or sucking in air through a carefully
positioned straw, can offer decent relief. In the longer haul,
amoxicillin can clear up many dental infections, while zinc oxide /
eugenol cement can be used for emergency repair of damaged teeth.
There are some reports that repeated treatments of cavities with
silver nitrate can be beneficial, too - but be aware that the
substance is caustic and tends to semi-permanently stain skin (and
anything else it comes into contact with).

4.7.6. Health & hygiene topic #6: Hemorrhage and wound management [
link]

Severe bleeding is one of the major causes of death following an
injury. It's an emergency on its own, and knowing how to manage it
until help arrives can make all the difference between life and
death.

A decent hemorrhage kit should probably include a generous amount of
bandages (3M Vetrap is particularly convenient), a tourniquet,
clotting gauze, and some duct tape. You should read the manuals and
consult an up-to-date first-aid guide, but the basic idea is to apply
lots of pressure to any profusely bleeding wounds. This can be done
with bandages, clothing, duct tape, or even your elbow, knee, or
hips. Clotting gauze or sponges, when pushed into the wound cavity,
can help stop bleeding more quickly and stabilize the victim.
Tourniquets used to be frowned upon in the past, but when dealing
with major trauma to a limb, they sure beat bleeding out to death;
it's just that they cause some tissue injury, and if kept on for too
long, necrosis may set in and the limb may have to go.

Don't just keep that stuff in your home; it's actually more important
to have such a kit in your car (ideally in the center console) and
carry something equivalent when biking, hiking, climbing, hunting, or
engaging into other injury-prone sports. There are some lightweight
ready-made kits that may do the trick, although making your own is
always a better choice.

In addition to such immediately necessary supplies, some prepper
guides recommend purchasing sutures, along with tissue forceps and
hemostatic clamps. Such equipment may be useful for neatly closing
major wounds in situations where bandages won't do - but suturing
correctly requires a fair amount of practice and know-how. For gnarly
cuts, skin staplers or skin closure strips (necessarily with benzoin
swabs) tend to involve less hassle - and are harder to mess up.

For longer-term wound management, in addition to hydrogels and
benzalkonium chloride disinfectants discussed earlier on, there is
some utility to non-adherent dressing and ABD pads. In a pinch, when
dealing with high-drainage wounds, sanitary pads should also do the
trick.

4.7.7. Health & hygiene topic #7: Broken or crushed limbs [link]

Your emergency medicine book will go into more details about setting
bones, applying splints, or even doing field amputations with a knife
and a saw. But even just to deal with a sprained ankle, a folding
cane may be good to have somewhere in your stash. Beyond that,
bandages are useful for improvising splints; in areas where
improvisation may be difficult - say, in the desert or up in the
mountains - portable folding splints (SAM splints) can be handy, too.

4.7.8. Health & hygiene topic #8: Respiratory and environmental
protection [link]

When it comes to transmittable diseases, your best bet is avoiding
exposure: if there's something really nasty making the rounds in your
community, stay home - or at the very least, avoid public transit,
cancel non-essential air travel, and avoid other crowds. This
includes grocery stores, farmers markets, restaurants and bars,
concerts, sports events, and non-essential trips to healthcare
facilities. Under such circumstances, online delivery is vastly
preferable to doing groceries in person, but if that option is not
available, it's best to do shopping off-peak - say, 6am or 11pm.

With all that in mind, despite numerous misconceptions, properly-worn
N95 masks probably provide adequate protection against most airborne
diseases. The other major transmission vector is hand contact, so
don't touch other people, avoid public-use surfaces, and resist the
instinct to touch your face without first washing or disinfecting
your hands (we subconsciously touch our faces a lot more frequently
than we suspect).

Because a restroom is not always within reach, and contact with door
handles or grocery carts can be difficult to completely avoid, buying
some hand sanitizer to put in your backpack, purse, or in your
pocket, is a pretty solid plan. Hand sanitizer by the door also helps
establish a routine where the entire family can clean hands
immediately after entering the house, without waiting for the
bathroom and possibly touching other items on the way.

Similarly to respirators, hand sanitizer sells out quickly during
pandemic scares - but if you miss that train, you can make your own
from rubbing alcohol, water, and a commonly-available gelling agent
such as methylcellulose. Disposable gloves may be a viable
alternative in some scenarios, too.

If you worry about releases from chemical plants or overturned
ammonia tankers, 3M multi-gas cartridges and half facepieces may
offer robust protection when sized and fitted properly. That said, in
most cases, it's more important to develop a plan for sealing your
home; walk around and take note of any crawl space inlets, bathroom
and kitchen exhausts, chimneys, fireplaces, and any other gaps. In an
emergency, you can cover them with trash bags and duct tape.

Although we are entering the realm of extremely unlikely events, if
you genuinely worry about encountering an overturned chemical tanker
while driving down the highway, 3M 5512 escape respirators offer
decent short-term protection against many threats. In addition to low
price, their major advantage is their small size; you could
conceivably have one for every occupant, and just store that gear in
the vehicle.

Of course, some extreme preppers will settle for nothing less than a
military-grade gas mask rated for chemical, biological, and nuclear
warfare. While it is true that such masks offer much better
protection against nerve agents and similar extremely harmful
substances, it's not a likely concern in most parts of the world -
and either way, it's doubtful that you would have enough time to suit
up once the symptoms kick in.

On a perhaps more realistic note: since many of the common and
harmful industrial gases are highly water-soluble, breathing through
a wet towel or other moist piece of cloth, or draping it to form a
tent over an infant's car seat or a stroller, might offer some very
short-term protection when all other options fail.

4.7.9. Health & hygiene topic #9: Vector control [link]

In some parts of the world, mosquitoes, flies, and other biting
insects are major vectors for extremely serious diseases, such as
malaria, African sleeping sickness, dengue fever, or lymphatic
filariasis. The same is not a grave concern in more temperate
climates; although malaria used to be a problem in some of the
southern states, it has been eradicated since 1951. Today, some of
the most serious incidents in the US and in Europe are the
occassional cases of Lyme borreliosis or the West Nile virus.

Still, if you are worried about the situation changing for the worse,
repellents such as DEET and picaridin can provide the first line of
defense. Beyond that, more radical solutions may include electric bug
zappers (especially when coupled with mosquito attractants, such as
octenol or lactic acid), permethrin insecticide sprays, mesh jackets,
window screens, and bed nets. For crawling insects, borax and
diatomaceous earth can act as a deadly barrier, too.

While serious zoonotic diseases can be also spread by birds, rodents,
or even cats and dogs, such vectors are more easily controlled or
avoided by maintaining sanitary conditions at home; in extreme cases,
traps or poisons such as bromadiolone may do the trick, but unless
you are living in a place prone to infestations, I wouldn't worry too
much.

4.7.10. Health & hygiene topic #10: Dealing with nuclear fallout [
link]

There are quite a few pop culture myths surrounding the dangers of
nuclear incidents, contributing to a defeatist attitude among even
some of the most hardened preppers. But in reality, such events are a
lot more survivable than portrayed in fiction - and perhaps more
importantly, the world that awaits the survivors would not
necessarily be all that bleak. A good way to explore this topic is a
book titled "Nuclear War Survival Skills". It sounds goofy, but it's
been written by the folks who worked on the Manhattan Project, and is
as close to scientific truth as you can get; plus, it is not
copyrighted and can be downloaded for free.

To summarize, let's start with the eponymous threat of nuclear war. A
typical ICBM strike is likely to kill most people within a 1 to 10
mile radius of the explosion, with most perishing due to the blast
wave and intense heat, not gamma rays. In fact, contrary to popular
lore and as witnessed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, when one sees a
flash of light, ducking behind cover is quite likely to save their
life. It's also important to remember that even an "all out" nuclear
exchange with another superpower would leave most of the United
States unscathed. It would not turn the planet into a
post-apocalyptic wasteland - not any more than the hundreds of
nuclear tests conducted in the twentieth century.

The fallout threat tends to be overblown, too. For one, air bursts,
which are preferred because of their improved blast radius, do not
produce that much of it; far more tends to be released during nuclear
power plant meltdowns or ground bursts. In any case, whatever gets
kicked up in the air can travel hundreds of miles before settling
down. So, in the aftermath of an incident, getting indoors and
sealing your home should be your first instinct. Basic respiratory
protection can help, too.

At first, the falling dust will be extremely radioactive and even
short-term exposure might be lethal - so your best bet would be to
seek shelter in the basement, or near the center of mass of any other
building. This maximizes the mass between you and the outside world,
shielding you from the gamma rays produced by whatever happens to
settle on the roof and the outside walls. The density and volume of
the shielding material matters more than anything else. It does not
have to be lead; mattresses and bulky furniture should do.

Luckily for the survivors, the highly radioactive isotopes present in
the fallout are also very-short lived; the intensity of radiation
will likely drop ten-fold within 6-8 hours, and will decrease a
hundred-fold within two days. If you wait a week or two, it should be
quite safe to venture out. Of course, it's still best to stay indoors
for as long as possible, and when heading out, it's good to keep the
trips short, to wear disposable coveralls, and to take care not to
track any residues into your home. But you don't need to lock
yourself in an underground vault for a decade or two.

This brings us to an interesting question: if the radioactivity
decays so quickly, why aren't people moving back to Fukushima or
Chernobyl? Well... save for several small hotspots, the exclusion
zones are safe to walk around, but it can be more dangerous to drink
contaminated water or eat local wildlife or crops. Our body may end
up using some of the longer-lived radioisotopes as biological
building blocks - which would expose us to low-grade radiation, at an
extremely close range, for the rest of our lives. While it is usually
not a death sentence, this phenomena is bound to produce a measurable
spike in mortality across any sufficiently large population. It is
more humane and more socially acceptable to keep people out.

Still, this does not mean that the survivors of a nuclear war would
have to choose between starvation and poisoning. Water and food
stored in closed containers will not become radioactive - people
would just have to be mindful of the dust on top. Crops can be grown
after removing several inches of topsoil, and most rivers, streams,
and creeks become safe quite rapidly (shallow bodies of standing
water are a different animal). In other words, with basic
precautions, it's quite possible to thrive in the aftermath of even
the worst nuclear war. All it takes is some luck and a bit of
knowledge; blast-proof bunkers are not a must.

In fact, one of the more consequential health consequences of nuclear
accidents is also very easy to manage: it's the release of copious
amounts of radioactive iodine, a short-lived substance that gets
absorbed by the thyroid gland. To deal with this issue, people in the
affected areas are typically offered potassium iodide pills; this
temporarily saturates thyroid and prevents any further uptake of
iodine for a couple of days or weeks. Such tablets are available
over-the-counter and dirt cheap, so it's not a bad idea to have some
at hand.

Other than that, there isn't much that can be done to limit the
damage caused by serious exposure to radiation. Some animal studies
suggest that pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ), an OTC dietary
supplement, can have fairly pronounced radioprotective benefits.
While the evidence is very preliminary and the quality of the studies
is lacking, the substance is believed to be pretty safe, so you can
certainly grab some just in case. Another potentially beneficial OTC
products along the same lines are diindolylmethane (DIM),
n-acetylcysteine (NAC), pyrroloquinoline quinone (PQQ), vitamin C,
and melatonin.

With all this out of the way, let's get back to a gadget mentioned a
bit earlier in this guide: Geiger counters. Unless you're an
emergency responder, you may not really need one. That said, such a
device could conceivably help you stay informed and keep your family
and friends at ease - and I don't mean just the remote possibility of
a nuclear war. Consider all the bogus rumors of contaminated water
and food in the aftermath of Fukushima; a radiation meter could have
put any such speculation to rest.

Of course, to use a Geiger counter effectively, you need to know how
to interpret the results. Although some controversy exists, the
prevailing view is that the effects of radiation are cumulative in a
fairly linear fashion; here's what you can expect once you hit a
particular dose:

  * 100 mSv (millisieverts): no immediate effects. A marginal but
    measurable increase in the likelihood of developing cancer later
    in life (+0.5%). This dose was received by a handful of residents
    during the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

  * 1 Sv: mild radiation sickness and a substantial increase in
    lifetime cancer risk (around +6%). A dose that might have been
    received by some subset of residents near Chernobyl in 1986.

  * 2 Sv: severe radiation sickness with vomiting and hair loss.
    Dangerous but with good chances of survival. A pretty substantial
    risk of cancer down the line (+12%).

  * 5 Sv: typically lethal, although there is a chance of recovery
    with proper medical treatment. Survivors are highly likely to
    develop cancer later on.

  * 10+ Sv: nearly always fatal. A dose received by some of the first
    responders at Chernobyl.

Some Geiger counters can keep track of the cumulative dose for you,
but most will simply display the rate at which you are getting
exposed - typically in microsieverts per hour (uSv/h) or
microroentgens per hour (uR/h; for gamma radiation, 1 R/h [?] 1/100 Sv/
h). To figure out what the reading means, you need to do the math:
for example, at 600 uSv/h, you will hit 100 mSv within a week, and 1
Sv within about two months. (The usual background rate from natural
sources hovers around 0.1-0.2 uSv/h.)

For folks interested in getting a nice, compact Geiger counter, Radex
One is pretty hard to beat; it is tiny, inexpensive, and can be
hooked up to a PC to continuously monitor the environment (and send
e-mail or SMS alerts). The one caveat is that similarly to many other
low-cost units, this device maxes out at 1 mSv/h - enough to know
that something is very wrong, but not enough to tell if you're going
to receive a life-threatening dose in an hour or somewhere within the
next six months. In other words, some of the more hardcore preppers
may want to invest in a more capable unit, such as ADM-300 (which
goes all the way to 100 Sv/h) or RAD-60R (3 Sv/h). Decommissioned
military and civilian devices in excellent working condition can be
found on eBay for around $200.

4.8. Self-defense and personal security [link]

As discussed earlier in this guide, we face surprisingly high
lifetime odds of becoming victims of burglary, assault, or other
major crime. To deal with this danger, the guide promotes a handful
of passive risk avoidance and loss minimization strategies, with the
bulk of this advice found in section 3.5. But it would be dishonest
to claim that such methods will always shield us from harm - so in
this chapter, let's have a look at some of the tools that serve as
the last line of defense when all other approaches fail.

4.8.1. Defense topic #1: Protecting your personal property [link]

It is fiendishly difficult to safeguard your belongings when you're
not home. When dealing with opportunistic burglaries, a heavy,
bolted-down safe, ideally ordered directly from a reputable
manufacturer, is probably your best defensive tool. Against
sophisticated adversaries on a targeted job, almost all bets are off;
in such cases, operational security (section 3.5.3) is more important
than any amount of high-tech gear.

Now, when asked about the best way to make a residence burglar-proof,
most people would probably mention getting an alarm system. But alarm
systems are fairly weak deterrents against theft; most statistics
suggest that they reduce the likelihood of a break-in by around 50%.
So, do the math: take the costs of installing an alarm system
(probably around $2,000 for a comprehensive solution), plus the
ongoing monitoring fees (easily $200-$500/year), and then contrast
these numbers with the likely loss in case of one or two break-ins
over the next several decades. Keep in mind that even if the numbers
are favorable, a high-quality safe ($500+) may still be a more
cost-effective approach.

Alarm systems aside, cameras are another popular security tool. They
do relatively little to deter theft, but can document all sorts of
problematic encounters - and in the event of a burglary, perhaps
improve the odds of recovering stolen goods. Decent wi-fi cameras
start at $100 a piece; many models can record to a local SD card,
although having a centralized DVR unit, ideally stowed away in an
inconspicuous place, will make the system more robust.

Some preppers advocate "hardening" the perimeter of your home. The
returns on this investment will vary; for example, high-security
locks and reinforced doors may be worthwhile in high-rise apartment
buildings, where the front door may be the only way in. For
single-family homes, the burglars will probably not bother with the
locks at all; forcing open a bathroom window takes much less work.
Tall fences and locked backyard gates can help, although their
benefits are limited in rural areas or in shady neighborhoods.

The other tools worth mentioning here may be remote motion detectors,
such as passive IR monitors or beam sensors. They won't do squat when
you're not on premises, but when you're home, they can give you an
advance warning about unwanted visitors. It's a remote concern, but
the sensors are relatively cheap, so just do what feels right.

As for cars: there is no hope. Don't leave anything of substantial
value in the vehicle, and if the car itself is valuable, have it
insured against theft (setting your deductible to $1,000 or more keep
the premiums low). Avoid tempting the thieves in any way: countless
car windows have been smashed over a $5 bill and some coins left in
the cup holder. Put spare change somewhere else.

4.8.2. Defense topic #2: Limiting liability for car accidents [link]

Vehicular accidents are depressingly common; while defensive driving
can limit your risk, the possibility of injuring another person or
causing property damage never really goes away. When you are involved
in a car wreck in unclear circumstances, or when your statements do
not match the words of another driver, video evidence may be the best
way to escape criminal charges or to resolve civil claims.

It used to be that dashcams were prohibitively expensive; but today,
the prices start at $50, so it makes sense to give the devices a try.
I can recommend Rexing V1, but there are countless other options to
choose from. The bottom line is, if you own a car, it's probably the
most affordable and meaningful liability insurance policy you can
get.

4.8.3. Defense topic #3: Fighting for your life [link]

In theory, a person's natural right to self-defense is broadly
recognized in much of the western world - but in practice, different
societies look at it in very different ways. Today, in much of
Europe, the very notion that one private citizen could lawfully harm
another human being is met with suspicion and distaste; the control
over life and death is more willingly delegated to the agents of the
state.

These differences manifest in how the regulators around the globe
approach anything from knives to pepper spray - but of course, no
topic is more contentious than firearms. The debate about the social
benefits and costs of gun ownership is hopelessly polarizing and
clouded by emotion; I'm certain that roughly half of the folks
reading this document have a very visceral, negative reaction to the
very idea that a private person should be allowed to carry a gun -
and I do not honestly expect to change their minds.

That said, when we look beyond the dogma, the underlying facts paint
an incredibly nuanced picture of the right to bear arms - putting
into question many of the deeply-held and seemingly common-sense
beliefs. For example, despite the striking ubiquity of legally owned
firearms in the United States - about one per every resident - the
country historically enjoyed lower per-capita rates of suicide,
robbery, assault, or rape, compared to some of its esteemed European
peers.

Of course, this observation ignores one important fact: compared to
EU countries, the US suffers from a markedly elevated (but rapidly
falling) rate of homicide. About two thirds of homicides are
committed with guns - but lest we jump to conclusions, the
non-firearm-related murder rate alone puts America well ahead of most
of Europe, suggesting that the cause may have to do with societal
differences as much as with the availability of a particular tool. A
finding that supports this theory is the fact that upward of 80% of
US gun homicides trace back to gang activity and drug trade, often
within the disadvantaged or impoverished strata of the society.
Another telling observation is that comparisons of overall murder
rates across US states or across EU countries with vastly different
firearms ownership profiles don't reveal a convincing correlation
between the two variables - something you would expect to see if
legally owned guns had a causative relationship with violent crime.

Of course, these points can be debated, and there's ample evidence to
cherry-pick in support of any view. But there is also a more
utilitarian way of looking at it. From an individualistic,
survival-focused point of view, the social costs (real or imagined)
are essentially moot: if you live in a place where guns are readily
available to criminals, it's hard to think of a violent confrontation
where not owning a firearm would give you the upper hand. While the
data is a bit dicey, there is a body of research showing that
defensive gun uses happen in the US at a rate of somewhere south of
500,000 times a year, with almost all confrontations resolved without
firing a single shot. The inherent dangers of owning a firearm are
often overstated by gun control advocates, too: unintentional injury
or death due to having a gun at home is comparatively rare, and is
almost always a consequence of blatant disregard for basic safety
rules.

All in all, it's OK to reject armed self-defense (or shun guns in
particular) on religious or moral grounds - but doing so is probably
not a particularly rational decision within the scope of this guide.
From a rational standpoint, you should always pick the tools that are
best suited for the scenarios you anticipate (provided that the state
allows you to). Of course, a firearm is not always the answer, so
let's take a broader look at some of the most popular options for
shooing away looters or defending yourself:

  * Bare hands. No deterrent effect, but surprisingly effective when
    a confrontation can't be avoided - especially when facing a
    single assailant. Reserved for people who are physically fit and
    willing to invest a fair amount of time into training. One of the
    most pragmatic and widely-taught schools is Krav Maga, and
    there's certainly no harm in checking it out.

  * Pepper spray. An excellent, temporarily incapacitating weapon -
    very difficult to resist and capable of buying you just enough
    time to escape. Works quickly and reliably at distances up to
    perhaps 10 feet; can also stop some animal attacks. Usually not
    heavily regulated, making it easy to obtain and carry even in
    places that frown upon other forms of armed self-defense (but
    check the laws). Pepper spray becomes less effective in strong
    wind; there is also some risk of blowback, but this is mitigated
    in narrow-stream products, such as Sabre Pepper Gel.

  * Knives. Very lethal and dangerous at close quarters, but only
    provided that you have the element of surprise on your side. They
    require some degree of physical fitness and training to use well.
    Their value is diminished when facing multiple assailants or
    dealing with a gun-wielding individual: even if you stab them,
    you are probably still gonna get shot. In a handful of places,
    carrying a knife may be illegal or subject to somewhat confusing
    restrictions, so perform due diligence if you want to take this
    route.

  * Stun guns. A nice idea, in theory. Unfortunately, most products
    require direct body contact with the attacker, are easily foiled
    by clothing, and may be less effective against people who are
    well-built, unusually agitated, or just high on drugs. While it's
    a popular self-defense choice, I can't honestly recommend it over
    pepper spray.

    (Projectile-type stun guns, such as Taser C2, are far better and
    work at a distance - but you need to have perfect aim on first
    try. They also cost quite a bit.)

  * Firearms. A very effective and supremely intimidating weapon,
    with lethality ranging from 20% for handguns to 80% for shotguns;
    for a novice user, the effective range is somewhere between 10
    and 100 yards. Guns are heavily regulated in much of the world,
    but widely available in the US - although there are several
    states or municipalities that make it very difficult to get a
    permit unless you are a celebrity or a prominent donor.

    Even if your local government does not issue carry permits or
    erects other bureaucratic roadblocks, having a firearm in your
    home can provide a very effective deterrent in case of home
    intrusions. That said, a gun is also a responsibility: similarly
    to a chainsaw, you are either serious about following the safety
    rules, or somebody may get hurt.

Interestingly, the legal bar for claiming self-defense is typically
no different whether you are using a less-lethal weapon or lethal
force. But of course, the legal and psychological consequences of
being wrong can be far more severe if you kill a person, versus just
making their eyes itch. There are no easy answers, so do some
soul-searching first. If you can't imagine killing another person to
protect your family - and living with the consequences - don't get a
knife or a gun.

4.8.4. Defense topic #4: Understanding firearms [link]

If you are contemplating getting a gun for home defense or for more
outlandish survival scenarios, the first choice you will face is
between a handgun, a shotgun, and a rifle. Here's what you need to
know:

  * Handguns. This category encompasses a wide selection of small,
    lower-powered firearms that can be easily carried without
    attracting attention. Most have a fairly modest stopping power,
    so-so ballistics, and require quite a bit of practice to
    accurately hit anything more than 10 yards away. A telling
    statistic is that in shootouts, the police have a hit rate of
    less than 30%; contrary to what some gun control supporters
    claim, an average policeman does not get that much practice, and
    probably trains less than your typical gun enthusiast - but these
    numbers are still something to keep in mind.

    Handguns are typically regulated more heavily than other
    firearms, in part because they account for the overwhelming
    majority of all gun crime. If you can get one, your basic choice
    is between:

      + Semi-automatic pistols. Typically capable of firing somewhere
        around 6 to 18 rounds from a removable magazine; reloading is
        very fast, provided that you carry another magazine with you.
        Their user interface is relatively complex, and some
        knowledge is needed to deal with potential misfires, jams, or
        to avoid negligent discharges - although the probability of
        any such issues is generally very low. (It's wise to avoid
        bargain-bin ammo and magazines.)

      + Revolvers. A more ancient type of a repeating firearm,
        usually holding 5 or 6 rounds in a non-removable cylinder.
        They are functionally simple, very dependable, and pretty
        accurate - but take more time to reload if it ever comes to
        that.

    You may be tempted to go for the most lightweight and
    highest-powered handgun you can find, but you would have to cope
    with punishing recoil and potentially blinding muzzle flash, so
    it's not always a good call. In home defense situations, mid- to
    full-size 9mm pistols and .38 Special revolvers are probably the
    sweet spot. There are countless models to choose from, but the
    bottom line is that you can't go particularly wrong with Glock,
    Beretta, SIG Sauer, Ruger, Smith & Wesson, CZ, Heckler & Koch, or
    Springfield Armory.

    If you need some starting points for your search, perhaps the
    most iconic and time-tested semi-auto design is the 1911; it was
    originally a pretty bulky and heavy all-steel firearm, but many
    manufacturers now make lighter, scaled-down variants that are OK
    for carrying around. More modern, higher-capacity successors
    include pistols such as SIG P226 or CZ 75B; as well as a growing
    number of compact, polymer-frame guns, including Glock 43, M&P
    Shield, or SIG P365. For revolvers, Ruger SP101 and Smith &
    Wesson 642 are probably two very reasonable picks to haul around.
    Some very futuristic if a tad more expensive revolvers are made
    by Chiappa, too; Rhino 30DS and 40DS are two nice picks.

  * Rifles. Long, heavy guns, often with detachable magazines housing
    anywhere from 4 to 30 rounds. Rifles fire high-velocity
    projectiles capable of accurately striking distant targets - and
    even a complete novice should be able to hit targets 30-50 yards
    away. With plenty of practice (and expensive optics), some rifles
    allow reliable hits at 1,000 yards or so.

    The most popular category are semi-automatic rifles, including
    the scary-looking AR-15 clones, the much less villainous Ruger
    Mini-14, and a bunch of in-between choices, such as Fightlite
    SCR. All three are known for reliability and good accuracy.
    Semi-automatics typically fire relatively small but high-energy
    projectiles (e.g., .223 Remington / 5.56x45mm NATO); although
    considerably louder than most handgun calibers, such projectiles
    are still somewhat suitable for home defense and hunting small to
    medium game.

    Another popular pick are bolt-action rifles, including Remington
    700, Winchester 70, Ruger Hawkeye, and Ruger Precision Rifle.
    Although there is a lot of variety, many are chambered for larger
    cartridges ideal for hunting big game (from .243 Winchester to
    .50 BMG) and are more suited for long-range shooting. For home
    defense, overpenetration becomes a significant concern.

    In the US, long guns are subject to fewer restrictions than
    handguns, chiefly because of their negligible role in street
    crime; that said, "assault weapons" - i.e., semi-automatic rifles
    with scary-looking cosmetic features, such as barrel shrouds or
    forward grips - have been a subject of recurring moral panics and
    various state- or municipality-level restrictions and bans.

    Perhaps interestingly, there is a handful of rifles chambered for
    handgun ammunition. The classics include Ruger 77 series, Henry
    Big Boy, and the replicas of Winchester Models 1873 and 1892
    (e.g., Chiappa 1892 Alaskan); some of the more modern
    semi-automatic options include Ruger PC and KelTec SUB2000. In
    the prepper context, their appeal is that you only need to keep
    one kind of ammo for two types of firearms. Putting a handgun
    caliber in a rifle gives you greatly improved accuracy, virtually
    no recoil, comparatively quiet operation, and somewhat improved
    range - but going past 100 yards is still going to be a stretch.

  * Shotguns. Long, heavy, large-bore weapons with tremendous
    stopping power, variously firing one large metal slug or a swarm
    of high-energy pellets; less-lethal rubber batons are also
    sometimes used for crowd or animal control. Aimed as easily as
    rifles, but because of the less ergonomic shapes of projectiles
    and their lower velocities, the effective range of a shotgun
    doesn't extend far beyond 100-200 yards. In places such as
    Australia or the UK, buying a shotgun is subject to fewer
    restrictions than other types of firearms.

    Excellent for home defense, where they combine high stopping
    power and accuracy with reduced risk of overpenetration
    (depending on the ammo used). Also popular for waterfowl hunting
    (where multiple projectiles reduce the need for very precise
    aim), deer hunting, and for encounters with predators such as
    mountain lions, bears, and the like.

    Most shotguns pack a substantial amount of recoil and can easily
    bruise your shoulder - although lower-powered loads or
    smaller-gauge variants (e.g., 20 ga) can be operated by
    small-framed or younger shooters. Capacity typically ranges from
    2 to 8 shells. A very affordable, popular, and reliable type of a
    shotgun is pump-action (reloaded by racking the slide); two of
    the best-known examples are Remington 870 and Mossberg 590.

When it comes to self-defense, hollow point ammunition (HP / JHP) is
preferred for rifles and handguns; compared to solid metal bullets,
it deforms and falls apart more readily on impact - therefore
reducing the risk of overpenetration and collateral damage.

If you decide to get a gun, you must learn how to operate it safely:
sign up for a basic course or have someone truly competent take you
to the range. The basic safety rules can be summed up as:

  * Rule #1: When picking up a gun, always assume that it's loaded.
    Don't trust others and definitely don't trust your own memory.
    Always double-check. If you don't know how to operate a
    particular gun, ask before touching it. In firearms with
    removable magazines, always check the chamber after removing the
    mag.

  * Rule #2: Assume that you will eventually mess up rule #1, so when
    handling a gun, always keep it pointed in a safe direction.
    "Sweeping" other people is a no-no, so is looking down the
    barrel. At the shooting range, the safe direction is down range,
    toward the backstop. At home, just be mindful of neighbors and
    people in other rooms.

  * Rule #3: Assume that you will eventually break rules #1 and #2,
    so keep your finger off the trigger unless the gun is aimed and
    you're ready to fire.

  * Rule #4: When firing, know your target and what's beyond it. You
    don't want to shoot a drunk family member in the middle of the
    night, or have a bullet go through your target and strike a
    bystander.

With the rules internalized, you are extremely unlikely to cause
unintentional harm. Keep practicing at least twice a month until you
get good, and then go to the range at least several times a year. Try
to use practice ammo with lead-free primers and clean bullets (e.g.,
RUAG Copper Matrix, Magtech Clean Range, Winchester Super Clean,
Winchester Frangible, Federal Ballisticlean, Remington Disintegrator,
Federal American Eagle TMJ, Federal Power-Shok Copper) and avoid
tracking lead residues from indoor ranges back home - especially if
you have small kids. Always wear hearing and eye protection, too.

Keep your firearms in a quick-access safe if you have young children
or expect people with kids to visit you every now and then. A safe is
also a good way to deter opportunistic theft; a clever hiding place
will also do, but criminals often have the same ideas as you and know
where to look. Be smart about picking the right safe and placing it
sensibly: you don't want to have to walk to the other end of the
house, or to fiddle with keys or rotary dials, when every second
counts. Electronic combination or biometric safes are usually pretty
good, unless you go for the bargain bin (don't).

5. Organizing and tracking your supplies [link]

Robust bookkeeping is an essential component of any preparedness
plan. Without a neat spreadsheet to go back to, you will eventually
lose track of the stuff you have, won't be able to locate critical
supplies in a pinch, and won't know if and when your batteries, food,
or meds have gone bad.

To get it right, make a list of all your emergency gear, along with
expiration dates where applicable. Next, go through the list marking
all the "stays home" stuff - the supplies that are impractical to
haul around or not particularly essential when evacuating. Make sure
that all the tactical gear - such as flashlights, fire extinguishers,
first-aid kits, and self-defense weapons - are in a logical and
easily reached place. For the remaining "stay home" items, just find
an unobtrusive location, stow them away, and write the spot down in
your spreadsheet.

The task of organizing the essentials you want to travel with is a
bit more involved. For car owners, I suggest preparing two separate
kits:

  * Boxed evacuation essentials. Camping and survival supplies to get
    you through at least one week, in case you need to leave home and
    can't be sure about finding a hospitable location right away. The
    gear should be boxed or bagged to make it easy to load into your
    vehicle. Include some amount of water and food, and make sure
    that the entire kit actually fits into the car. For many US cars,
    56 quart storage totes work very well.

  * A get-me-home box. A container always kept in the trunk, small
    enough so that it doesn't hinder your normal use of the car, but
    substantial enough to help you survive several days (or cope with
    other, more prosaic roadside emergencies). The kit should include
    1-2 gallons of water, Mylar blankets, rope, and other car
    supplies discussed earlier in the guide. A collapsible water
    bottle and a folding daypack can be useful if you have to walk on
    foot from a broken car to the nearest town. Throwing in some cash
    - just enough to pay for gas, a meal, a motel room, or a ride
    home - is also a good plan.

While you're at it, also check that you have a spare tire, a jack, a
lug wrench, and a box of extra fuses. They come optional on some very
cheap cars, and may be simply missing when you buy a used one. Some
people find out too late.

Folks without a car are at a marked disadvantage, but should still
try to put together a 72-hour "bug out bag" - and ideally, keep it
somewhere within a walking or biking distance of their home (say, at
work or at a friend's place). It's best to keep it light; some cash,
2-4 quarts of water, a 3,600 kcal emergency ration, and a raincoat
will be almost certainly more useful than a gun and a collection of
throwing knives.

Either way, when done with the list, be sure to re-read the response
plans you drafted earlier on and cross-reference them with this
spreadsheet. Iterate until you're happy with both, then print out the
docs and place them somewhere intuitive. In a stressful situation,
you will be able to quickly review the printouts to confirm that you
are not missing anything.

6. Final words [link]

Here is a closing thought: rational prepping is meant to give you
confidence to go about your business, knowing that you are
well-equipped to weather out adversities. It should not be about
convincing yourself that the collapse is just around the corner, and
letting that thought consume and disrupt your life.

I'd stay positive: the world is probably not ending, and there is a
good chance that it will be an even better place for our children
than it is for us. But the universe is a harsh mistress, and there is
only so much faith we should be putting in good fortune, in
benevolent governments, or in the wonders of modern technology. So,
always have a backup plan.

Follow the author on Twitter: @lcamtuf.
Send in your feedback, questions, or kind words: lcamtuf@coredump.cx.

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