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Do you roll down or roll up? * 1 comment Options trading in Brazil? * 12 comments The end is nigh 14 * 17 comments Options paper trading 51 * 43 comments Follow up from creating an LLC to trade from sphere 3D LEAPS 2 * 2 comments Short Box Spread (Loan) unexpected taxes 108 * 24 comments My first successful hedge 2 * 7 comments ITM vs OTM Welcome to Reddit, the front page of the internet. Become a Redditor and join one of thousands of communities. x 513 514 515 [vLA9O4RY] Should you listen to Jim Cramer? - I analyzed 20,000+ recommendations made by Jim Cramer during the last 5 years. Here are the results. ( self.options) submitted 9 hours ago by nobjos[klvxk1wggf]3[5izbv4fn0m]2[Illuminati] [v1mxw8i6wn][80j20o397j][SnooClappi][silver_48][platinum_4]& 4 more Jim Cramer has made 21,609 stock picks in the past 5 years! Let that sink in for a moment. Here is one person, making buy/sell/hold recommendations on more than 2,200+ different stocks across all types of industries. On average, he was making more than 20 picks per episode of his show [1]. This is a staggering number of picks to be made by one person! [2] While we can all argue about his expertise in making recommendations on such a wide array of industries and companies, what I wanted to know was: 1. How accurate were his recommendations? 2. Would you have made or lost money if you followed them? 3. Can you beat the market following his picks? So it's high time that we put Cramer to the ultimate test and end the debate about his usefulness once and for all! https://preview.redd.it/xethcdd2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=17c64b3059d57df22d9468b0803fd781f12b5e18 Analysis The data about all the stock picks made by Cramer are available here [3]. The picks are classified into five segments (Buy, Hold, Sell, Positive/Negative mention). I have calculated the return for each segment separately [4] so that we can know what to focus on if we are trying to replicate this strategy. Since Cramer frequently contradicts his own picks and is mainly focused on short-term trades, I am only analyzing the stock returns for the following periods [5]. a. One-day b. One-Week c. One-Month Given that Mad Money (Cramer's Show) airs after the market closes, I have used the opening price of the next day for my calculations. (I.e If Cramer makes a recommendation on Thursday night, I use Friday opening price as the base for my calculations) All the data used in the calculations are shared at the end. https://preview.redd.it/0x2ikwd2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=3d2fb94ba1af493740362bb939e13743b8160237 Results https://preview.redd.it/7mbvwrh4fv981.png?width=775&format=png&auto= webp&s=ba4edaf25fc2287a0b5700540e989b8662b43bd1 1-day performance of Cramer's recommendations is excellent! On average, the Buy and Positive mention stocks went up by 0.03 and 0.05% respectively, and sell and negative mention stocks went down by 0.1 and 0.02%. Another interesting fact is that you would not have lost money if you followed Cramer's Buy recommendations. Across the time periods, his Buy recommendations have on average netted you positive returns [6]! His sell recommendations did not pan out so well. Even though they dropped in price the next day, over the next week and month, they returned inline or even better than his buy recommendations! Given that there is a counter-intuitive trend in the returns, let's calculate the accuracy of his calls. https://preview.redd.it/u24my9f5fv981.png?width=792&format=png&auto= webp&s=7070ae9b8f8db4cf3c95430b67c8fa68c03c605b Here I am assigning a call as correct based on price change. If he gives a buy recommendation, I expect the price to go up and vice versa. As we can see from the chart above, his recommendations only do slightly better than a coin-toss. Even this only holds for short-term and buy recommendations with long-term sell recommendation performance dropping below 50% [7]. While this narrow edge over the 50% mark can be used by algo-traders who have the ability to trade a large amount of stocks, if you are an average investor listening in on a Cramer show and hear about a stock recommendation, you might as well toss a coin to see if you should invest or not! Finally, it's time we pit Cramer against the market. Do his recommendations beat the market? https://preview.redd.it/4jy8xsb6fv981.png?width=1020&format=png&auto= webp&s=7c73cc998f6e0a5d96e779f28f14a2936f66d273 Oh yeah! I was as surprised with the results as you are. I ran the numbers again and then one more time but got the exact same result! Cramer's Buy recommendations beat the S&P 500 by a factor of 10 for the one-day time frame. But, if you held the stocks for anytime longer, you would have underperformed the market significantly. Before you go daytrade on his recommendations you should know that the numbers we are seeing here are heavily influenced by outliers. If you miss out on the top 1% of recommendations (~110 stocks out of the 11,000+ buy recommendations he had made), your 1-day return would be -0.062% instead of +0.034 [8]. https://preview.redd.it/eo50hed2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=60eaa0b7f347eb28a0606aa25c7436b83fa78fb5 Limitations of the analysis The analysis has some limitations that you should be aware of before trying to replicate the strategy. 1. As the astute among you might have noticed, if you sum up all the stocks used in the analysis it would only come to 18.5k. I removed ~15% of the overall recommendations as either they did not have stock data present in Yahoo Finance/Alpha Vantage or the price data did not match with the one given on the Mad Money website. 2. The data is obtained from the Mad Money website itself. I haven't manually verified if the calls recorded on the website are in fact an accurate representation of the calls made by Cramer in his show. The below statement is given in their description and I am taking them on their word. We are impartial in our recording and simply log exactly what was said. We do not interpret the calls. If a call is vague or in question we simply won't list it. https://preview.redd.it/l5cfhxd2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=5669a311e8067cff01cd4ad304386f059914c610 Conclusion No matter the public opinion on Cramer, we can generate excellent 1-day returns following his buy recommendations (even beating the market in doing so!). Whether it's due to his superior stock picking ability or whether it's simply due to self-fulfilling prophecy [9] (as he has a wide audience who will act on his advice) is yet to be known. I would bet on the latter as, if the extraordinary one-day returns were in fact due to his superior stock-picking ability, the returns should have held over longer time periods, and also his sell recommendations would not have ended up performing better than his buy recommendations as we are observing here. It only makes sense to listen to his advice if you are a day-trader or an algo-trader who is trading a large variety of stocks over short periods of time. For everyone else, just sticking to the S&P 500 would give you better returns over the long run! https://preview.redd.it/kaentre2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=ada384d17d797e772764aadd748b11006834625d Data Excel file containing all the Recommendations and Financial data: Here Live tracker containing the performance of Cramer's 2021 picks: Here [10] (I will be updating this file regularly so that you can see his performance in real-time whenever you want to!) https://preview.redd.it/u6t0u7f2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=b277de02f04341e0da7a1d5add24555aa8dac12e More Interesting Reads From this week onwards, I am including one or two blogs or articles I really enjoy and hopefully, you can discover new and interesting content! More to that: This is by an illustrator called Lawrence Yeo who breaks down really complicated topics into easy to read articles with fun illustrations. The Nothingness of Money was one of the best articles I have read last year and if you reading just one article this year, it should be this one (oh, I know this is r/wallstreetbets , but you are going to love this one)! Econometrics: If you like the charts I make, you are going to love Econometrics. They present long-term perspective about how digital assets are shaping financial markets with the help of really interesting infographics. To buy or not to buy was an excellent article about what is the right time to buy into a dip. The chart below showcases their ability in data visualization and breaking down complex ideas! https://preview.redd.it/wcddkz1nfv981.png?width=733&format=png&auto= webp&s=14e801f18b2bd62c4b345b2514e1172e4bd65e1f https://preview.redd.it/wnci28g2fv981.png?width=1728&format=png&auto= webp&s=426895ca97fdc8c7bcecde231480de5318237712 Footnotes and existing research [1] For those who don't know, Cramer makes his picks in a CNBC show called Mad Money. Cramer himself defines the show as something which should be used for speculative/high-risk investing and not for your retirement portfolio. [2] For comparison purposes, an equity research analyst covers only 10-25 companies. [3] It's not in an easily usable format. I had to parse the data from the webpage using Python (Beautiful Soup) - I have shared all the data used in this analysis as an Excel and Rows file at the end. [4] I did not calculate for Hold as he only made 27 hold recommendations, which is lower than what is required for a statistical significance. [5] In my last post about Jim Cramer, there was a lot of controversy around how I calculated the time period. So here is the detailed version about how the time period is considered. For One-Day returns, we are considering that we will purchase the stock the next trading day after the market opens and then sells it at the end of the trading day. For weekly and monthly returns, I am using adjusted closing price since across a week or month there can be stock splits as well as dividends. [6] This can also be attributed to the market rally we have experienced over the last 5 years where a large majority of stocks went up. [7] 50% benchmark might be controversial with a lot of you (I agree given that if we are in a bull market there is more than a 50-50 chance of a stock going up tomorrow) - My rationale here is standing today looking at a stock, there are only two things that can happen tomorrow. It can either go up or go down. I assign equal probability to both given anything can happen tomorrow. The market can turn bearish, positive or negative news about the company can come up, etc. If you have a better logic for a benchmark, please do suggest! [8] But to be fair to Cramer, this is applicable to all types of Investment strategies and hedge funds! The performance of a few of the stocks in your portfolio will finally end up heavily influencing the returns of your overall portfolio. - Think of Tesla incase of ARK and FAANG in case of S&P 500. [9] There is some existing research that deep dives into this topic. [10] Since it's a live tracker using data from Alpha Vantage, the calculation is done slightly differently than in the analysis (in the live tracker I had to use the closing price on the day of recommendation instead of the opening price of the next day). I will be updating it to follow the same process as the analysis as soon as I get info from Alpha Vantage. * 87 comments * share * save * hide * report all 87 comments sorted by: best topnewcontroversialoldrandomq&alive (beta) [ ] Want to add to the discussion? Post a comment! Create an account [-]1HasNoNam3 50 points51 points52 points 7 hours ago (1 child) Cramer told me to buy NVDA at $33 * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]JamesKramer42069 10 points11 points12 points 6 hours ago (0 children) That guy ain't all bad * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]IguaneRouge 96 points97 points98 points 8 hours ago (4 children) Jon Stewart exposed Jim Cramer pretty good over ten years ago. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]MahatmaGUNdhi 18 points19 points20 points 8 hours ago (1 child) Jon has his own "guy" * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]boih_stk 2 points3 points4 points 6 hours ago (0 children) Saw his picture and thought "Holy shit he looks just like Jon" and thought that was the joke, until I reached the bottom. Well played, sir. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]garycow 5 points6 points7 points 7 hours ago (0 children) lol * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Human_Ad5404 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) so did somebody else in a rather scathing SEC comment * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]ilovebeansheyheyhey 39 points40 points41 points 9 hours ago (2 children) Never go full Cramer. Or even a little Cramer. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Confident_Elephant_4 2 points3 points4 points 3 hours ago (0 children) I made a lot with CLF Cleveland-Cliffs and even more selling calls that he recommended so I can't be so negative about Cramer even though I want to. I made money the past year with that stock. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]insomniacRA 0 points1 point2 points 53 minutes ago (0 children) YOU NEVER GO FULL RETARD! * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Kiltura 116 points117 points118 points 9 hours ago (15 children) That is a very long text for basically telling us that Jim Cramer has no clue what he is talking about and buy and hold has been the way to go since forever. Nice. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]nobjos[S] 29 points30 points31 points 9 hours ago (10 children) Not really. If you are a short-term trader, listening to his recommendations makes sense. On average, his one-day performance for Buy recommendations was 10x the SPY. Long-term though it's extremely poor as you can see from my live tracker, where I have considered all the picks in 2021 and returns to date, he underperforms the market by 9.6%. Only 33% of his picks have beaten SPY in the last 1 year. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]ElevationAV 39 points40 points41 points 9 hours ago (5 children) I think this is likely because many people DO listen to him, so his recommendations move markets in terms of daily buys I know many day traders that religiously follow him, I expect there's many of these types of people * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Glorypants 13 points14 points15 points 7 hours ago (4 children) Right, if anything this data shows how Cramer's comments manipulate the stocks he picks on a short term basis, and otherwise he has no idea what he's doing. It's good to note that OP used the opening price as the starting point for his 1-day data, which means it's not too late to buy the morning after the show. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]ElevationAV 1 point2 points3 points 7 hours ago (1 child) yep exactly people buy in after/during his morning show, and either sell their positions by market close or the next morning. Explains why the daily performance is significantly better than the weekly or yearly performance. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]djdanlib 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) It would be illuminating to list the average movement for the rest of a day after he broadcasts, rather than the whole day. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]arbitrageME 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (1 child) I'm interested in seeing how much he moves the market -- As OP mentions, Mad Money airs after the market closes. So even though you couldn't have traded on it, you could track close to open moves, compared to SPY close to open moves. Cramer himself could even buy before his show, then does his show, then MOO sell. He could be a 1-man pump and dump! * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Glorypants 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) I think we already know he is.. just can't prove it and those in power won't investigate/enforce it. Anyone with a large following can do this. Look at Elon Musk, I guarantee he had a lot of dogecoin already before he started pumping it on Twitter * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]wsb202009 1 point2 points3 points 1 hour ago (0 children) Not really. If you are a short-term trader, listening to his recommendations makes sense. All I infer is somewhat paid advertisement for Jim Cramer. He is a true clown of stock Market and but has made somehow reputation by television personality. Good for him, but bad for listeners ! * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]President_Dwayne_C 1 point2 points3 points 7 hours ago (0 children) Appreciate the analysis and the interesting read. Regardless of other peoples bias I like seeing the numbers. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]DirtyWork81 0 points1 point2 points 28 minutes ago (0 children) He is also on Sqwak on the Street in the morning and makes appearances on CNBC all day long. So that adds up to many other calls than just the Mad Money recommendations. So if you want to day trade his picks, you will probably be trading 250 of the 500 stocks in the S&P every day. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Jay-jay1 -2 points-1 points0 points 6 hours ago (0 children) The chart shows an average 0.03% gain for the 1st day. That is just 3 onehundredths of 1%. That is what, $3 per share on a $1000 stock (unless my grade school math memory is fuzzy). Edit: My memory was fuzzy. The gain is only 30 cents. It would not be worth it. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]funkyonion 1 point2 points3 points 1 hour ago (1 child) "You should be buying things and accept that they are overvalued, but accept that they're going to keep going higher. I know that sounds irresponsible, but that's how you make the money. Right now, up is down, left is right, peace is war." * Jim Cramer, 2007 * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]DirtyWork81 0 points1 point2 points 25 minutes ago (0 children) He also tries to pretend like he was a hero during that time period because after the whole thing collapsed he was saying the government should intervene before they actually did. No mind the pumping of everything in the market prior to Bear Stearns. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]bcrxxs -3 points-2 points-1 points 6 hours ago (0 children) Has to be sponsored by Cramer, I can't imagine someone taking time out of their day to make this kind of postwtf * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Cyprinodont -1 points0 points1 point 9 hours ago (0 children) People always want the best new thing, sometimes you need a long reminder that there isn't always a best new thing. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]photocist 4 points5 points6 points 6 hours ago (0 children) What does this have to do with options lol * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]C2theC 10 points11 points12 points 7 hours ago (1 child) I am a contrarian of the Reddit hive mind's opinion on Cramer, and get downvoted. Few view him as an asset into what institutions are thinking. Cramer does a great job of generalizing what Wall Street is thinking right now, and projects the intentions of the general fund managers, and does a good job of summarizing the market sentiment. You don't ever have to follow whatever he says, but there will always be a counterpart to your trade, and wouldn't you rather know the strategy of the other side? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]RedditConsciousness 0 points1 point2 points 2 hours ago (0 children) Exactly. This all or nothing thinking that people have is ridiculous. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Pilotguitar2 32 points33 points34 points 9 hours ago (0 children) No. Cramer = paid hedgefund shill. Dont pull ur money outta bearsterns, they r doing fine. Lol whoooops! * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]zombiemadre 2 points3 points4 points 6 hours ago (2 children) Jim Cramer eats ice cream with a fork * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]eoliveri 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (1 child) No, Cramer eats soup with a fork. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]zombiemadre 0 points1 point2 points 42 minutes ago (0 children) That too * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]FuriousResolve 3 points4 points5 points 5 hours ago (0 children) That "Nothingness of Money" article was amazing, thank you for slipping that in there * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]serendip7 2 points3 points4 points 3 hours ago (0 children) I didn't even bother to look at your analysis for 1 simple reason. Who cares? You shouldn't be following what someone says about a stock. I love Jim and his central thesis is that following someone else's stock picks is careless and lazy. It's in his opening statements of EVERY show. Do your own work and buy something YOU are comfortable with. The best thing Jim does for viewers is to expose them to new companies, concepts and ideas. What you do with that is up to you. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]jonpolis 15 points16 points17 points 8 hours ago (0 children) Every few months someone does an analysis on Cramer. Yeah it's cool to see the results but it misses the point of his show completely. If you'd listen to the show you'd notice two things. 1. He consistently repeats that you should not be blindly buying all his picks, the show is a platform to hear lots of names and get ideas. 2. The people calling in tend to be working class boomers who like having their hand held. Even Cramer says not to listen to Cramer. There's a group of people who like hearing his advice and want the volume of names that he covers. Shitting on him doesn't make you look smart of insightful, just another shill in the Reddit echo chamber that missed the nuance completely * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]callmealyft 1 point2 points3 points 6 hours ago (0 children) Why does someone keep posting this trash about Jim Cramer. It's been proven time and time again that he uses his reach to pump and dump stocks * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Grammar_Natsee_ 1 point2 points3 points 5 hours ago (0 children) I am 10 times more impressed by the work behind this exquisitely presented post than by the topic in itself. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]CrowdTraders 1 point2 points3 points 5 hours ago (0 children) What about the idea around the "Cramer Bounce" versus the "Cramer Dive"? I saw another report recently that showed how in recent years there is actually a negative impact from Cramer's callouts--also sure maybe the data above shows 1-day returns are green, but we cannot ignore the fact the days after are strongly negative, right? I'm not so sure--truly I pay attention to his callouts only to avoid trading them. Shot myself in the foot over $F with that, though... * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]finereddit_illsignup 1 point2 points3 points 5 hours ago (0 children) cramer is a pump and dump and his callouts are no dif than others on twitter trying to get momo on their plays * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]tylerforeal[] 1 point2 points3 points 2 hours ago (1 child) This is like everyone's school project and a new person each week comes in and posts the same crap thinking it's novel or interesting. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]eoliveri 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) And they post it in the wrong sub, like this one. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]unobservedcat 2 points3 points4 points 8 hours ago (1 child) So inverse Cramer long-term? Kidding, nice write-up. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]aManPerson 1 point2 points3 points 4 hours ago (0 children) so what i'm hearing is, buy everything cramer doesn't talk about. ok, i better get started. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]PassDaDoge 2 points3 points4 points 6 hours ago (0 children) Holy Fuck... you gotta a lot of time on your hands, huh? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]iJacobes 5 points6 points7 points 9 hours ago (0 children) the answer is no, never listen to Jim Cramer ever * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Fat_Maestro 4 points5 points6 points 8 hours ago (0 children) No /end thread * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]SgtKevlar 2 points3 points4 points 7 hours ago (2 children) I see posts like this all over Reddit all the time. Two things: 1) Don't take stock picks from anyone. Ever. If you're going to put your money into an asset, you should form your own opinion on that asset. Otherwise, you're never going to know when to cut losses or take profits. 2) Jim Cramer is a TV host. His job is to talk about new stocks every day. The demand of needing new picks every day invariably means most will be losers. Can you imagine if he just got on TV every day and only talked about FAANG names? "Yep, guys, I'm still bullish on Apple, just like yesterday!" P.S. Stop watching financial media. They have no clue what they're talking about, and you're just one more sheep in the CNBC pump and dump herd. Seriously. Form your own thoughts * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]unorthodox_thought 0 points1 point2 points 5 hours ago (1 child) "cut losses" sounds a lot like take losses... I thought rule number 1 was the loss isn't real till you sell... I cut losses on GME... bought in at 400, sold at 80, rebought in at 200 then just sold my position today at 140... I hang out on WSB * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]SgtKevlar 0 points1 point2 points 5 hours ago (0 children) My advice is to stop hanging out on WallStreetBets. Ask the people who decided to diamond hands their Enron and Lehman Bros positions how that worked out for them. I'm a paper-handed bitch and proud of it. I cut my losses fast and let my winners run. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]nobjos[S] 1 point2 points3 points 9 hours ago*[Illuminati] [SnooClappi] (0 children) Hey Guys, Wishing you an amazing year ahead. This was one of the most time and data-intensive analyses that I have ever done. Let me know what you thought about Cramer's ability and your take on the analysis and if any changes/improvements can be made! Every week I dive into analysis like this. Some of my most popular analyses are 1. How to consistently make returns from the Crypto market! 2. Can Wallstreetbets beat the market? 3. Should you follow insider transactions? 4. Do Hedge Funds beat the market? Do check them out if you are interested. For next week's analysis, I have calculated the returns of the Top-100 world's most sustainable companies over the past decade and benchmarked them against S&P 500! Do you think sustainable companies can bear the market or is it just feel-good investing? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]BallboyTrentDivock 1 point2 points3 points 8 hours ago (0 children) We gunna get one of these every day? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]WrathofKhaan 1 point2 points3 points 8 hours ago (0 children) Looks like coke-rat Cramer got a burner account * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]good7times 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (1 child) I've never watched him once. Anyone else?! * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Jay-jay1 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (0 children) I can't stand his voice, so I don't watch his show. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]buy_the_peaks 0 points1 point2 points 8 hours ago (0 children) His sell recommendations have a higher return than his buy recommendations even after self fulfilling 1 day move. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]ooops1970 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (0 children) Awesome analysis. Kudos for the hardwork! * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]shamansufi 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (0 children) r/theydidthemath Good work there, friend * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]papadapper 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (2 children) You know I saw an episode of a 60 Minutes type of show, where the group had hired a stock broker and tracked the earnings. On the show's side, they threw darts at a collage of stock choices. They came out even. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Jay-jay1 0 points1 point2 points 7 hours ago (1 child) I recall a story where someone had a chimp throw darts at a printout of thousands of stocks, and the chimp beat the average stock analyst. * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]Oberschicht 0 points1 point2 points 3 hours ago (0 children) Yeah but wasn't that because the chimp hit something like Amazon or Apple back when they were small? * permalink * embed * save * parent * report * give award * reply [-]flamethrower2 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) The average return for all managers is the market return less the average fee (about 0.7%) so how did Cramer do compared to that? You didn't say his results. Your image links are broken so I can't see it. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]superD53 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) You spent way too much time on Cramer. Wait......Cramer? Got any of that dope left? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Derrick_Foreal 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) The short term bump is likely attributed to viewers just buying his recommendations after they air. Reminds me of the Barron's cover where the stock mentioned in the paper would bump after print back when newspapers were a thing. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]DoubleDeezDiamonds 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) Some of the images seem to be broken, only loading a slim long white bar as the image for me. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Wise_Personality9678 0 points1 point2 points 6 hours ago (0 children) I really like Jim Cramer but never take his advice. Jim Cramer is a fairly astute guy and he really has a great group for analysis and ideas. So, a lot of what he says on earnings etc is of great interest, especially pinpointing trends. Please note Jim Cramer is in the entertainment business and needs to have daily content and lots of it now that he is so often on CNBC. So, take everything with a grain of salt, he will look great on some trades and silly on others. So, use it just like you use Reddit, in one ear and out the other, but once in awhile...... * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]yenmeng 0 points1 point2 points 5 hours ago (0 children) Great stuff OP * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]wfbarks 0 points1 point2 points 5 hours ago (0 children) Issue may be that it gaps up when cramer mentions it, making it nearly impossible to enter the trade at the price you are using as baseline, instead traders enter at the next days opening price * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]mad_physicist_42 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) Nice analysis, but how much of that short term performance is directly affected by his show. He says buy and a bunch of people buy the next day causing the price to go up and visa-versa for sell... In my very amateur opinion we you've really shown here how easily the market can be manipulated by the right players using the right medium. What we the rating for his show? How many of those viewers are blindly following his "advice"? Is it enough to effect the price of the stones he's recommending? I think the real question is are his recommendations what he actually thinks about the stocks or just what he wants from the stocks? I think Cramer creates sentiment based on what he (or other powers that be) need from specific stocks. But again, I'm far from a professional trader and really have no idea what I'm taking about. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Raymundito 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) So moral of the story- Jim has a TV show but spends more time yelling than analyzing OP is an autist and an incredible statistician * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]LeonardoDiYolio 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) Before you go daytrade on his recommendations you should know that the numbers we are seeing here are heavily influenced by outliers. If you miss out on the top 1% of recommendations (~110 stocks out of the 11,000+ buy recommendations he had made), your 1-day return would be -0.062% instead of +0.034 [8]. If you remove the up-side outliers (top 1%) and leave the downside outliers, what is the result? Do you happen to have that data? Also, on an absolute basis, is there more upside bias or downside bias? In other words, do the bottom 1% offset the top 1% on par, or is it a more uneven ratio? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Puzzleheaded_Line675 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) Well done, my guy. Bravo on your analysis and breakdown. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]mac-0 0 points1 point2 points 4 hours ago (0 children) Given the method of taking the stock at the open price, isn't it possible that we're actually just seeing a tiny pump and dump effect (that is, Cramer being positive/negative on a stock has a very negligible affect that adds up over time as opposed to Cramer is able to beat the market by 10x?). Cramer says stock X is bad and it opens at $10. Random person sees this news and decides to sell at $9.90 to get out of their position. Voila, Cramer became a self-fulfulling prophecy. Which is why the trend doesn't work for any period longer than a day -- by then the market has already corrected itself. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]EuroYenDolla 0 points1 point2 points 3 hours ago (0 children) I'm curious for the 1 day recommendation, Mad Money airs after market close so you would have to buy stock/options at next days open the earliest. Do you account for this? Make sure your not buying at the close the day of the recommendation and selling it at the close the next day because this is unfeasible. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]jrdubbleu 0 points1 point2 points 3 hours ago (0 children) OP, are the picks just the ones he does features on, or just the ones he "blesses" when people call in? He has noted that he only really believes in the stocks he features. I'm not a Cramer shill, but just mentioning it. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]ProFantasyEarner 0 points1 point2 points 2 hours ago (0 children) So many retards * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]moneyandlilia 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) This is amazing research. THANK YOU!!! I've always wondered about the performance of Cramer's stock picks. Now I know! And yes, I completely agree . . . buying and hold SPY is the way to go. Better yet, SELL put options on SPY so you can try to buy the ETF at a lower price. Cheers! Lilia * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]ploopanoic 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) Questions: 1. Did you include slippage & fees in your buy/sells? 2. Does the analysis change if you use after-hours, say right after his show ends to buy? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]stibgock 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) So, basically he's a pump and dumper yeah? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]AL_E_P 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) Didn't a monkey do just as good or better randomly picking stocks? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Edspecial137 0 points1 point2 points 1 hour ago (0 children) You mentioned that you took the opening price of the following day as the data point following the guidance from Cramer. Wouldn't Cramer's influence have had a serious effect biassing this? If he says buy and everyone sets a market buy limit which triggers the next morning, it will go up. What did the prices do a week after this? Did it correct? Continue up? I'm curious if you corrected for his initial guidance what you might find. To me, this data shows he has impact on short term price movements, but nothing validating long term * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]dryman167 0 points1 point2 points 59 minutes ago (0 children) Have you tracked Cramer's charitable trusts rate of return? This information would be useful as it shows where Jimmy Chill is putting is money to work. I think his daily rants and touts on CNBC should really be viewed as great financial entertainment. In addition I think when Cramer gives a recommendation on TV his opinion should be viewed from the stand point that deep down Cramer is a trader and everyday it new shooter new dice. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]monarchmra 0 points1 point2 points 27 minutes ago (0 children) What about if you are too poor to day trade (thanks sec)? What would the 2 day returns be, ie, if you bought at open then sold the following open? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]tylerhoot 0 points1 point2 points 10 minutes ago (0 children) So...just buy puts on Cramer's picks after one day? * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]Apprehensive_Can_503 0 points1 point2 points 1 minute ago (0 children) Wow! Fantastic post.! Thank you. I would love to hear your top 2022 stock picks. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]joremero -1 points0 points1 point 8 hours ago (0 children) I'd like to see data for 1, 3 and 5 years if available out there....nowadays, the market goes crazy from one day to another. * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply [-]bcrxxs -1 points0 points1 point 6 hours ago (0 children) Cramer payed you to post this?lmao his picks are awful,intentionally, he pushes whatever stock his WallStreet masters tell him and usually drops , doing the opposite of what's he's said is actually a brilliant trading strategy lol * permalink * embed * save * report * give award * reply * about * blog * about * advertising * careers * help * site rules * Reddit help center * reddiquette * mod guidelines * contact us * apps & tools * Reddit for iPhone * Reddit for Android * mobile website * <3 * reddit premium * reddit coins * redditgifts Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy. 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