https://www.mh370search.com/2021/11/30/mh370-preliminary-findings/ The Search for MH370 Serving the MH370 Global Community [MH370-Logo] * Home * News * Debris Drift * Flight Path * WSPR * Impact Hydroacoustics * Video * Archive * Chronology * Invitation MH370 GDTAAA Analysis by Richard Godfrey | Nov 30, 2021 | WSPR | 23 comments [MH370-Search-Area-Geoscience-pdf] The GDTAAA WSPRnet MH370 Analysis Preliminary Findings place the crash location at 33.177degS 95.300degE just 6 nm East of the 7th Arc. The report can be downloaded here This preliminary report provides a summary of the key findings from the MH370 flight path analysis using the Global Detection and Tracking of Any Aircraft Anywhere (GDTAAA) software based on the Weak Signal Propagation Reporter (WSPR) data publicly available on the WSPRnet. This report will be followed up by two papers. The first paper will give all the findings every two minutes during the entire flight of MH370 from 7th March 2014 16:42 UTC to 8th March 2014 00:20 UTC. The second paper will give the technical details of each detection of MH370 using the WSPRnet data and the technical details of the tracking of the MH370 flight path. 23 Comments 1. Richard on 30 November 2021 at 10:19 @All, Geoffrey Thomas at AirlineRatings has published a new article on the MH370 probable crash location: https://www.airlineratings.com/news/ mh370-probable-location-found-revolutionary-tracking/ Reply 2. Richard on 30 November 2021 at 10:25 @All, This video contains a fly over sequence of the crash location made by Geoscience Australia. The fly over sequence starts at 5 minutes 30 seconds into the video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egRS1dznH-Y A screen shot taken from the video with the MH370 crash location marked with a red dot is shown in the following link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/jo7t83x4bkrpbem/ Crash%20Area%20Flyover.pdf?dl=0 Reply 3. BG 370 on 30 November 2021 at 10:53 @Richard Great work ! Your suggested crash location and search recommendation fit within the drift analysis that led me to half the recovered pieces of the plane. Reply + Richard on 30 November 2021 at 15:04 @BG 370, Many thanks for your hard work and extensive travel to recover so many MH370 floating debris items. The fact that my suggested crash location aligns with Prof. Charitha Pattiaratchi's drift analysis showing an origin around 32S/33S is very encouraging. Reply + Ian H on 30 November 2021 at 18:14 Hi Richard, Fascinating work; great job! One question: Can you explain why the Fugro vessels did not find the aircraft? I'm not sure I understand what the Fugro vessels were - submarines? Surface ships? Thanks Ian Reply 4. Richard on 30 November 2021 at 19:44 @Ian H, Fugro Equator is an ocean going vessel: https://www.dropbox.com/s/v2mxkam77jlqagu/Fugro%20Equator.png?dl= 0 In 2016 it was equipped with an Edgetech Deep Tow Vehicle: https://www.dropbox.com/s/59rbvde8ygn15z9/ Edgetech%20Deep%20Tow%20Vehicle.png?dl=0 ... and later with a Hugin Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV): https://www.dropbox.com/s/x6m6obf2r65irq2/Hugin%20AUV.png?dl=0 In the previous search area around the current estimated crash location Fugro reported a 97.8% coverage with high confidence, 1.1% coverage with low confidence and 1.1% data gaps mainly due to terrain avoidance. It is quite likely that the aircraft was in an area where terrain avoidance was an issue. Reply 5. Dirksn on 30 November 2021 at 21:47 Hi Richard! These coordinates are what the world was waiting for more than 7,5 years. A lot of people that cared were so confident one would stand up and find the data driven key in the countless signals that span the globe. Biggest congratulations for this outstanding success to everyone it is due and hopefully a vessel is soon on its way to prove. All the best and thank you, Dirk Reply 6. Bob Jones on 30 November 2021 at 23:39 HI Richard, During the Ocean Infinity search their AIS tracking went dead for a number of hours when they went over a critical area of their seabed search, do you think that they purposely turned it off at the time? Perhaps they found it and didnt want to report the findings due to the Malaysian Government? What are your thoughts? Reply + Richard on 1 December 2021 at 00:03 @Bob Jones, Welcome to the blog! Ocean Infinity did not search the previous ATSB Fugro search areas, so they have not searched the crash location that I have now identified. I believe you are correct when you point out that Ocean Infinity decided to switch off their AIS for a time. They were almost stationary and focusing on a particular location, which under the intense media scrutiny at the time would have led many observers to believe they had found MH370. In fact I think you will find that they had lost contact with one of their AUVs and were looking for it in order to recover it. I do not believe that Ocean infinity found MH370 and decided not to report the finding to the Malaysian authorities. Reply 7. John Chambers on 30 November 2021 at 23:43 Excellent work! I look forward to reviewing your final report. Reply + John Chambers on 30 November 2021 at 23:53 It is concerning, however, that your endpoint is within a previously searched area. There are certainly gaps in the coverage, but it would be an odd coincidence if the plane happened to be in one of these rare gaps. Need confirmation that the endpoint is within one of the terrain avoidance areas. Reply o david on 1 December 2021 at 07:04 i wonder that also, maybe its slightly off?, or the plane is broken into lots of small parts?, also wonder if maybe as the debris drifted away as it sunk also?. surely it would be unlikely that it would be in the 1 percent area which wasn't searched Reply 8. Richard on 1 December 2021 at 09:32 @John Chambers, @david, The aircraft AF447 was found at the 4th attempt after 2 years. The plane crashed in 2009 and the wreckage discovered in the phase 4 search in 2011 only 6.5 nm from the last known position. The submarine ARA San Juan was found at the 2nd attempt on the side of an underwater cliff face. The location was missed on day 5 of the search on 13th September 2018 and eventually found in a second pass on 10th November 2018. The crash location of MH370 lies in difficult underwater terrain with volcanos, ridges and canyons (please see the simulation fly over by Geoscience Australia in the YouTube video at 5 minutes 30 seconds in my comment yesterday at 10:25 above). Fugro Equator noted a number of sonar scan contact points in the area. They also noted the difficult terrain and their Edgetech deep tow vehicle would have to be wound in on the cable in good time to avoid hitting the ocean floor in an area where the depth changed rapidly by hundreds of meters. It is not that easy to scan such underwater terrain. The 2.2% low confidence and data gaps is an average taken over a much larger search area that includes a majority of much flatter ocean floor. In an area of underwater volcanic activity there is also that possibility that the sea floor has changed in the last 7.5 years and debris has been shifted or even partially covered. Reply + Kylie on 1 December 2021 at 09:40 Could this flight have flown over Christmas Island? Reply o Richard on 1 December 2021 at 09:44 @Kylie, Welcome to the blog! MH370 had sufficient fuel to have reached Christmas Island, but the pilot chose not to fly there. A route into a much more remote part of the southern Indian Ocean was chosen instead to a point 1,993 km West of Perth. Reply 9. Richard on 1 December 2021 at 09:49 @All, Here is a TV interview with the aviation correspondent Geoffrey Thomas discussing the significance of my recent analysis: https://twitter.com/sunriseon7/status/1465784226729451522?ref_src = twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1465784226729451522%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10 &ref_url= https%3A%2F%2Fwww.airlineratings.com%2Fnews%2Fgeoffrey-thomas-discusses-mh370-tracking-technology%2F ... and an interview with me later on the same channel ... https://twitter.com/i/status/1465790593133469700 Reply 10. Richard on 1 December 2021 at 09:51 @All, Here is another TV interview ... ... this time 9News in Australia ... https://www.9news.com.au/national/ mh370-crash-location-pinpointed-in-indian-ocean-new-research-claims /9769769c-6a71-4dd4-8dcc-6206396a66c3 Reply + Ahmad on 1 December 2021 at 15:59 Very interesting breakthrough. I have been following this case since the day it occured and have recently discovered your work. If you are correct, which is hopefully the case, I'd assume that the reason it was initially missed is because it was obliterated on impact and what remains of it are small pieces of debris, very much like Swiss 111 which presumably impacted in a manner similar to MH370. I also see small "bumps" in the area where the red dot is located in the scan I don't know if it is related. I'm no expert but it does generate ideas. Reply o Richard on 1 December 2021 at 21:12 @Ahmad, Welcome to the blog! 33 floating debris items from MH370 or a Boeing 777 have been found and recovered. The average weight of these 33 items was 4.88 kg. This average would imply that MH370 broke up into 35,740 pieces. I expect certain items like engine cores and landing gear remained mostly intact. Over time these items can be covered by silt on the ocean floor and if there was volcanic activity in the vicinity then ash. I would not read too much into small "bumps" in the area. Reply # Ahmad on 1 December 2021 at 22:10 Thank you! I see. I would hope that at least some important pieces of wreckage have been preserved to give us some insight in regards to what happened. To my knowledge, Aluminium at that depth wouldn't deteriorate that much. So what's the next step now? Are there any talks of restarting a search around this location? 11. Richard on 1 December 2021 at 14:10 @All, Here is a video sequence of the MH370 crash location made by Geoscience Australia: https://youtu.be/ONxMJruYHyY Reply 12. Ethan Larsen on 1 December 2021 at 20:01 Hello, Richard. What do you have to say about the doubters of your research? To elaborate, I've seen individuals discredit your findings saying "Richard hasn't let other experts peer review," or "Richards first blind test failed, thus rendering WSPR useless!" I really hope your research sparks a new search for MH370. If found, the families will be relieved. Great work too! Reply + Richard on 1 December 2021 at 21:48 @Ethan Larsen, Welcome to the blog! When you introduce any new technology, I have great sympathy for those who wish to check all the methods and data for themselves. I do just that myself. The claim that I have prevented a peer review is false. I have published all my analyses in great detail. I have also publicly committed to publishing two papers one with all the two minute WSPRnet results and one with all the technical details. I specifically mention in the report on the preliminary findings that "This report will be followed up by two papers which are intended to support a detailed peer review of the methods and findings of this analysis." I agree that I have not yet published these two papers, but I have publicly stated that it will take until the end of December for the first and Mid-January for the second. There is a lot of work involved. There are 234 data points each with on average 337 WSPRnet links. To misconstrue that I am blocking a peer review is false. In fact some people claim that they have already carried out a peer review without seeing these papers! I agree that my first blind test failed, but it was not a complete failure, the initial route was correct. Meanwhile 3 further blind tests were successful. The GDTAAA software moved from V1 to V5 with a number of improvements. I have spent the last 9 months with the support of Geoffrey Thomas an international aviation expert as adjudicator of independent tests, Mike Glynn a former Qantas Captain who set various tests, Duncan Bosworth from the ATSB who provided AMSA search data from 2014 under a confidentiality agreement, the RNZAF who provided detailed flight path of their SAR flight into the MH370 search area in 2014 and Dr. Robert Westphal a radio amateur and WSPRnet expert for tracking aircraft, testing and improving the GDTAAA software. Only then did we decide to start tracking MH370. I assume there will always be detractors. My request to my fellow MH370 analysts is that they do not rest until they have proven to their own intellectual satisfaction that my analysis is correct or false from the publicly available data. I humbly request that they make the effort to at least reproduce the results and show me where I have gone right or wrong. Reply Submit a Comment Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] Comment [ ] [ ] Name * [ ] Email * [ ] Website [ ] [ ] Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. 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