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      + Table of Contents
      + Preamble
          o Acknowledgements
          o Preface
      + Chapter 1
          o Observation selection effects
          o A brief history of anthropic reasoning
          o Synopsis of this book
      + Chapter 2
          o Does fine-tuning need explaining?
          o No "Inverse Gambler's Fallacy"
          o Roger White and Phil Dowe's analysis
          o Surprising vs. unsurprising improbable events
          o Modeling observation selection effects: the angel parable
          o Preliminary conclusions
      + Chapter 3
          o The anthropic principle as expressing an observation
            selection effect
          o Anthropic hodgepodge
          o Freak observers and why earlier formulations are
            inadequate
          o The Self-Sampling Assumption
      + Chapter 4
          o The Dungeon gedanken
          o Two thought experiments by John Leslie
          o The Incubator gedanken
          o The reference class problem
      + Chapter 5
          o SSA in cosmology
          o SSA in thermodynamics
          o SSA in evolutionary biology
          o SSA in traffic analysis
          o SSA in quantum physics
          o Summary of the case for SSA
      + Chapter 6
          o Background
          o Doomsayer Gott
          o The incorrectness of Gott's argument
          o Doomsayer Leslie
          o The premisses of DA, and the Old evidence problem
          o Leslie's views on the reference class problem
          o Alternative conclusions of DA
      + Chapter 7
          o Doesn't the Doomsday argument fail to "target the truth"?
          o The "baby-paradox"
          o Isn't a sample size of one too small?
          o Couldn't a Cro-Magnon man have used the Doomsday
            argument?
          o We can make the effect go away simply by considering a
            larger hypothesis space
          o Aren't we necessarily alive now?
          o Sliding reference of "soon" and "late"?
          o How could I have been a 16th century human?
          o Doesn't your theory presuppose that what happens in
            causally disconnected regions affects what happens here?
          o But we know so much more about ourselves than our birth
            ranks!
          o The Self-Indication Assumption -- Is there safety in
            numbers?
      + Chapter 8
          o Leslie's argument, and why it fails
          o Observer-relative chances: another go
          o Discussion: indexical facts -- no conflict with
            physicalism
          o In conclusion
          o Appendix: the no-betting results
      + Chapter 9
          o The Adam & Eve experiments
          o Analysis of Lazy Adam: predictions and counterfactuals
          o The UN++ gedanken: reasons and abilities
          o Quantum Joe: SSA and the Principal Principle
          o Upshot
          o Appendix: The Meta-Newcomb problem
      + Chapter 10
          o Building blocks, theory constraints and desiderata
          o The outline of a solution
          o SSSA: Taking account of indexical information of
            observer-moments
          o Reassessing Incubator
          o How the reference class may be observer-moment relative
          o Formalizing the theory: the Observation Equation
          o A quantum generalization of OE
          o Non-triviality of the reference class: why R0 must be
            rejected
          o A subjective factor in the choice of reference class?
      + Chapter 11
          o Cosmological theorizing: fine-tuning and freak observers
          o The freak-observer problem places only lax demands on the
            reference class
          o The Sleeping Beauty problem: modeling imperfect recall
          o The case of no outsiders
          o The case with outsiders
          o Synthesis of the 1/2- and 1/3- views
          o Observation selection theory applied to other scientific
            problems
          o Robustness of reference class and scientific solidity
          o Wrap-up
      + Bibliography
   
    About the author

    [xnick_bost]

    Professor, Faculty of Philosophy &
    Director, Future of Humanity Institute &
    University of Oxford

    Nick Bostrom is a Swedish-born philosopher and polymath with a
    background in theoretical physics, computational neuroscience,
    logic, and artificial intelligence, as well as philosophy. He is
    a Professor at Oxford University, where he leads the Future of
    Humanity Institute as its founding director. (The FHI is a
    multidisciplinary university research centre; it is also home to
    the Centre for the Governance of Artificial Intelligence and to
    teams working on AI safety, biosecurity, macrostrategy, and
    various other technology or foundational questions.) He is the
    author of some 200 publications, including Anthropic Bias (2002),
    Global Catastrophic Risks (2008), Human Enhancement (2009), and
    Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2014), a New York
    Times bestseller which helped spark a global conversation about
    artificial intelligence. Bostrom's widely influential work, which
    traverses philosophy, science, ethics, and technology, has
    illuminated the links between our present actions and long-term
    global outcomes, thereby casting a new light on the human
    condition.

    He is recipient of a Eugene R. Gannon Award, and has been listed
    on Foreign Policy's Top 100 Global Thinkers list twice. He was
    included on Prospect's World Thinkers list, the youngest person
    in the top 15. His writings have been translated into 28
    languages, and there have been more than 100 translations and
    reprints of his works. He is a repeat TED speaker and has done
    more than 2,000 interviews with television, radio, and print
    media. As a graduate student he dabbled in stand-up comedy on the
    London circuit, but he has since reconnected with the doom and
    gloom of his Swedish roots.

    For more background, see profiles in e.g. The New Yorker or Aeon.

    Anthropic Bias - complete text

    You can now view the entire text of Anthropic Bias: Observation
    selection effects in science and philosophy in HTML format, or
    download the text as a PDF. These are full digital reprints of
    the original book, offered here by the author with kind
    permission from Routledge.

    Contents

      + Acknowledgements xi
      + Preface xiii
      + Chapter 1: Introduction 1
          o Observation selection effects 1
          o A brief history of anthropic reasoning 5
          o Synopsis of this book 7
      + Chapter 2: Fine-tuning in cosmology 11
          o Does fine-tuning need explaining? 13
          o No "Inverse Gambler's Fallacy" 16
          o Roger White and Phil Dowe's analysis 18
          o Surprising vs. Unsurprising improbable events 23
          o Modeling observation selection effects: the angel parable
            32
          o Preliminary conclusions 39
      + Chapter 3: Anthropic principles: the motley family 43
          o The anthropic principle as expressing an observation
            selection effect 43
          o Anthropic hodgepodge 46
          o Freak observers and why earlier formulations are
            inadequate 51
          o The Self-Sampling Assumption 57
      + Chapter 4: Thought experiments supporting the self-sampling
        assumption 59
          o The Dungeon gedanken 59
          o Two thought experiments by John Leslie 62
          o The Incubator gedanken 64
          o The reference class problem 69
      + Chapter 5: The self-sampling assumption in science 73
          o SSA in cosmology 73
          o SSA in thermodynamics 76
          o SSA in evolutionary biology 78
          o SSA in traffic analysis 82
          o SSA in quantum physics 84
          o Summary of the case for SSA 86
      + Chapter 6: The doomsday argument 89
          o Background 89
          o Doomsayer Gott 90
          o The incorrectness of Gott's argument 92
          o Doomsayer Leslie 94
          o The premisses of DA, and the Old evidence problem 96
          o Leslie's views on the reference class problem 104
          o Alternative conclusions of DA 107
      + Chapter 7: Invalid objections against the doomsday argument
        109
          o Doesn't the Doomsday argument fail to "target the truth"?
            109
          o The "baby-paradox" 111
          o Isn't a sample size of one too small? 115
          o Couldn't a Cro-Magnon man have used the Doomsday
            argument? 116
          o We can make the effect go away simply by considering a
            larger hypothesis space 116
          o Aren't we necessarily alive now? 118
          o Sliding reference of "soon" and "late"? 119
          o How could I have been a 16th century human? 119
          o Doesn't your theory presuppose that what happens in
            causally disconnected regions affects what happens here?
            120
          o But we know so much more about ourselves than our birth
            ranks! 120
          o The Self-Indication Assumption -- Is there safety in
            numbers? 122
      + Chapter 8: Observer-relative chances in anthropic reasoning?
        127
          o Leslie's argument, and why it fails 127
          o Observer-relative chances: another go 130
          o Discussion: indexical facts -- no conflict with
            physicalism 132
          o In conclusion 136
          o Appendix: the no-betting results 137
      + Chapter 9: Paradoxes of the self-sampling assumption 141
          o The Adam & Eve experiments 142
          o Analysis of Lazy Adam: predictions and counterfactuals
            144
          o The UN++ gedanken: reasons and abilities 150
          o Quantum Joe: SSA and the Principal Principle 154
          o Upshot 156
          o Appendix: The Meta-Newcomb problem 157
      + Chapter 10: Observation selection theory: a methodology for
        anthropic reasoning 159
          o Building blocks, theory constraints and desiderata 159
          o The outline of a solution 161
          o SSSA: Taking account of indexical information of
            observer-moments 162
          o Reassessing Incubator 165
          o How the reference class may be observer-moment relative
            168
          o Formalizing the theory: the Observation Equation 172
          o A quantum generalization of OE 174
          o Non-triviality of the reference class: why R0 must be
            rejected 175
          o A subjective factor in the choice of reference class? 181
      + Chapter 11: Observation selection theory applied 185
          o Cosmological theorizing: fine-tuning and freak observers
            185
          o The freak-observer problem places only lax demands on the
            reference class 193
          o The Sleeping Beauty problem: modeling imperfect recall
            194
          o The case of no outsiders 195
          o The case with outsiders 196
          o Synthesis of the 1/2- and 1/3- views 198
          o Observation selection theory applied to other scientific
            problems 198
          o Robustness of reference class and scientific solidity 202
          o Wrap-up 204
      + Bibliography 207
   
    (c) 2020 Nick Bostrom. All rights reserved.