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TheEconomist / covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

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The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19
pandemic

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README.md

 The Economist's excess deaths model

This repository contains the replication code and data for The
Economist's excess deaths model, used to estimate the true death toll
of the covid-19 pandemic.

Chart of total deaths over time

To replicate the model and export estimated excess deaths for a
locality, please run the scripts 1, 2, and 3, in the scripts folder.
As the model draws most of its data dynamically, you can use these
scripts to generate updated estimates as time passes.

To read about what the model shows, see our Briefing: Counting the
dead.

To understand how we constructed it, see our Methodology: How we
estimated the true death toll of the pandemic.

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the
data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in
our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is
also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources
for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess
deaths tracker. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the
models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

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The Economist's model to estimate excess deaths to the covid-19
pandemic

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