https://socketsite.com/archives/2021/04/asking-rents-in-san-francisco-continue-to-slip-but.html SocketSite: Plug In to San Francisco Real Estate Tips, Trends and the Local Scoop April 26, 2021 Plug In to San Francisco Real Estate Tips, Trends and the Local Scoop SocketSite: Plug In to San Francisco Real Estate Tips, Trends and the Local Scoop Toggle navigation SocketSite: Plug In to San Francisco Real Estate Tips, Trends and the Local Scoop * Categories + Apples To Apples + As Proposed + Bay Buildings + Being Green + Breaking News + Bubble (Or Not) + Coming Soon + Commercial + Design & Architecture + East Bay + Editorial + Exceptional Garage Doors + Fixtures & Furnishings + FSBO: SF + In The Media + Industry Stuff + InsertHeadlineHere(tm) + Interesting Opportunities + Just Quotes (Emphasis Added) + Listings (for sale) + Marin (And Points North) + Neighborhoods + New Developments + QuickLinks + RandomRumors + Real Estate Economics + Real Estate Resources + RealRecentReductions + Remodeling and Renovation + Rentals + Sales & Deals + San Jose (And South) + Seemingly Random + SocketSite Forums + SocketSite Readers Report + SocketSnaps + Tech + Trends * Contact [ ] * * * * Rentals * Breaking News * Industry Stuff * Real Estate Economics * Trends Asking Rents in San Francisco Continue to Slip, But... April 23, 2021 * Share on Facebook * Share on Twitter * Share on LinkedIn * Share on Google Plus * Submit to Reddit * Submit to Digg * Submit to StumbledUpon * Share via Email [San-Francisco-Aerial-2019] Despite some misreports in the media, apartment rents in San Francisco haven't started to rebound, as we outlined last month. And in fact, the weighted average asking rent for an apartment in the city has now inched down to $3,050 month, which is down 24 percent on a year-over-year basis, down over 25 percent since the pandemic hit, and nearly 32 percent below a 2015-era peak, with the average asking rent for a studio in the city holding at under $1,900 a month and down nearly 35 percent from peak. That being said, the net number of units listed for rent in San Francisco, including units in larger buildings as well as one-off rentals, has dropped nearly 10 percent over the past month. But even with the net absorption of vacant units, listed inventory levels are still 95 percent higher than they were at the same time last year. Keep in mind that our analysis of the rental market is based on a subset of over 100,000 listings, going back going back to 2004, that we maintain, normalize and index on a monthly basis. And as always, we'll keep you posted and plugged-in. * Share on Facebook * Share on Twitter * Share on LinkedIn * Share on Google Plus * Submit to Reddit * Submit to Digg * Submit to StumbledUpon * Share via Email Related: Apartment Rents Bay Area Rents San Francisco Rents Comments from Plugged-In Readers 1. Posted by wilson 3 days ago Any insight how much of this 10% represents units being rented vs being withdrawn? Reply + Posted by SocketSite 1 day ago We haven't seen any credible data to suggest that the current reduction in listings is being driven by anything other than positive net absorption of available units versus vacant units being withdrawn. But again, despite the 10 percent drop, there's still twice as much inventory on the market than there was at the same time last year. Reply o Posted by SFCitizen 2 hours ago What happened to the proposed rental unit database? Did it die in committee? Die at the BOS? I haven't heard anything recently about it. Reply 2. Posted by Not always right but never in doubt 3 days ago The fact that an upward turn in the market is being debated signals to me the cycle's bottom was in the past. Reply + Posted by Ken m 2 days ago Debated? A few media reports that were mouthpieces for Big Realtor doesn't a debate make Reply 3. Posted by ST 3 days ago As a landlord, I have a pessimistic view on rent recovery...I think it will take 5 years, or more, to fully go back to 2018 level. And SF is not alone in the rent slump. South Bay is no better IMO. Many many many listings have been on the market for 150+ day with 1 or 2 inquiries. This is just the new reality that we all need to adjust to. Reply 4. Posted by Panhandle Pro 3 days ago I'll take a loss on this one. I figured the bottoming out was going to be in the Jan/Feb/March timeframe (I was right), but we're now in late April and no sign of meaningful improvements (I was wrong). June 15th is when the California lockdowns officially end. Around then is when a huge number of people will be fully vaxxed + two weeks, and when I'm hearing some offices will meaningfully begin letting people in. I'd bet July's report (looking back at June) is when we'll see prices jump. Reply + Posted by Jimmy the Kid 3 days ago "It's tough to make predictions especially ones about the future" Yogi Berra Reply + Posted by SF 2 days ago "but we're now in late April and no sign of meaningful improvements" So we don't know if we've actually bottomed out, which means your first prediction isn't necessarily correct. Reply o Posted by Panhandle Pro 2 days ago True. Given the points made earlier (vaccines, offices opening) and the fact that it's been flat for three months, I have a strong conviction this is the bottom, but it might not be. Reply + Posted by AlamedaRenter 2 days ago That's just 15 days before the eviction moratorium ends. Possibly an increase rental stock in the following 30 to 60 days. Reply o Posted by soccermom 2 days ago Or the following 150-200 days if you're actually talking about going to court in the Bay Area. Reply + Posted by Ken m 2 days ago If you think the offices are going back to 2019-era activity anytime in the coming years, you're in for a big surprise. Reply + Posted by stan miller 16 hours ago The work-at-home is a big exaggeration. There was work at home three or four years ago and Google bought the Pavilion mall in West Los Angeles converting a mall to 500,000 square feet of Office Space. Reply 5. Posted by Brian 2 days ago Interesting. Wall Street Journal reported rising rents today (4.24.21) in SF for March of +3.4% compared to month prior. Reply + Posted by SocketSite 2 days ago As we said... Reply 6. Posted by Bluntcard 2 days ago Out of curiosity, is it necessary for rents to recover to their highest levels for landlords to have a profitable rental business in San Francisco? I understand that there is a natural progression to rent increases, but hasn't the past decade been a bit of a fluke as far as how fast and how much rents increased? Reply 7. Posted by Charlie in SF 2 days ago Rents in SF bottomed out in January. The Superbowl weekend was like a switch and demand got turned back on. Reply + Posted by Ken m 2 days ago I've seen more For Rent signs in the past three months than in the last three years. Reply + Posted by SocketSite 1 day ago Factually speaking, that's incorrect, at least with respect to rents. But leasing activity did pick up in February, as we noted at the time and shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody who has been following along. Reply 8. Posted by NobHillResident 2 days ago If you would like some anecdotal info, I reside in a large rent controlled building with over 30 units. 5 longer term tenants have left just over the past month, either moving out of city or buying locally given low rates, etc. Tenant turnover here was extremely rare until this spring.,. Housing data appears very volatile now given the vaccine rollouts. Buckle up... Reply + Posted by Panhandle Pro 1 day ago This is an interesting point. There may be many renters who have 1) saved a lot of money due to lockdowns 2) had stock go up / other wealth 3) realize low rates and buy an entry level condo instead. Reply 9. Posted by peter 2 days ago If you are a young single professional, are you going to want to live in the burbs? or be in the SF? Demand comes back when the energy comes back. It will. Always does. Reply + Posted by Ken m 2 days ago They're ok with being in Oakland. Or Portland. Or LA. Or Austin. Reply 10. Posted by Conifer 2 days ago For argument's sake, say apartment rents stay down. SF is still the second most expensive city in the country, and among the most expensive in the western world. Why all the hand-wringing? It is a problem only for those who bought or built based on the greater-fool theory. Reply + Posted by DAA 4 hours ago Agree. It's interesting to follow the data available but unless you bought an income property in 2020, your earning potential is greater than it was 5 years ago and will continue to rise despite this blip. Anecdotally, I'm hearing of so many life-long renters voluntarily leaving the City, must be a lot of landlords rejoicing to get those units back to market rate. Reply o Posted by SocketSite 4 hours ago Average asking rents, which peaked in 2015, are currently 31 percent lower than there were 5 years ago, with studios back to 2011 levels and asking rents for one-bedrooms back to their lowest levels since 2012. Reply # Posted by Notcom 3 hours ago You're not getting into the spirit of this: anything less than the Great Depression is a "blip" ; that was a "burp", and if this somehow ends up being a burp too - or even a belch !- then we've solved the affordability problem. So this is clearly a good thing. C-l-e-a-r-l-y. Reply # Posted by Ohlone Californio 3 hours ago Rents peaked in '15 in SF, not '18 ? huh. Reply @ Posted by SocketSite 2 hours ago That's correct, as outlined above (and which shouldn't catch any plugged-in readers by surprise). 11. Posted by Brian 1 day ago Earlier this month we had a 1 bedroom above Dolores Park that took 10 days to fill from date of listing to check in the bank. My listing agent tells me she has a laundry list of others for our next unit that is turning over now. Ironically, It looks like we'll net ahead overall on gross rents due to one of the turnovers being a long term tenant. This was a 5 unit building we closed on in the Fall of last year. It's been nerve racking with much second guessing but with the 1031 deferral advantages gained through the sale of a condo preceding this acquisition, and surviving the recent turnovers we are feeling more optimistic about the future. Reply Add a Comment Cancel Reply [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] Comment [ ] Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Name * [ ] Email * [ ] Website [ ] [Post] Recent Articles Office Vacancy Rate in the East Bay Nearing 17 Percent Office Vacancy Rate in the East Bay Nearing 17 Percent Pace of Home Sales in the U.S. Drops to a 6-Month Low Pace of Home Sales in the U.S. Drops to a 6-Month Low * * Trending 1. Pace of Home Sales in the U.S. Drops to a 6-Month Low 2. Benchmark Mortgage Rate Back Under 3 Percent 3. Office Vacancy Rate in the East Bay Nearing 17 Percent 4. Mortgage Loan Activity Ticks Up 5. Pace of Home Sales Slows in S.F. But Still Elevated 6. Twitter Co-Founder's Former Noe Home Fetches $4.5 Million 7. Bonus Plans for a New Infill Tower Have Been Drawn 8. Another Bigger Infill Tower on the Boards 9. Van Ness Corridor Redevelopment on the Boards 10. Iconic Jazz Mural Building on the Market * * * FEEDS + RSS Feed + RSS 2 Feed + RSS Atom Feed + RDF Feed * * * CONTACT US + tips@socketsite.com + contact@socketsite.com (c) Copyright 2021 SocketSite. All Rights Reserved. x Get the FREE SocketSite Weekly Recap Email Join our mailing list to stay up-to-date on what's happening with real estate in San Francisco... E-Mail Address: [ ] Zip Code: [ ] Cancel Subscribe x Submit a tip, ask about advertising, contact an editor, reach the publisher or report a problem with the site... Name: [ ] E-Mail Address: [ ] Subject: [-- Select One -- ] [ ] [ ] Message: [ ] You must have JavaScript turned on to Upload Files Add files...[ ] Upload added files Cancel upload Delete [ ] Cancel Send