Title: A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities
Author: marquis de Pierre Simon Laplace
Translator: Frederick Lincoln Emory
Frederick Wilson Truscott
Release date: February 13, 2019 [eBook #58881]
Most recently updated: May 3, 2019
Language: English
Other information and formats: www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/58881
Credits: Produced by Turgut Dincer, Chris Pinfield, and the Online
Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net (This
file was produced from images generously made available
by The Internet Archive)
Transcriber's Note:
Apparent typographical errors have been corrected.
The corrections noted in the Errata section have been incorporated in the text. Three further corrections have also been made: 9/10 in place of 1/10, and 9/10 in place of 6/10, on page 110; and "ex voto" in place of "ex veto" on page 173.
BY
PIERRE SIMON, Marquis de LAPLACE.
TRANSLATED FROM THE SIXTH FRENCH EDITION
BY
FREDERICK WILSON TRUSCOTT, Ph.D.
(Harv.),
Professor of Germanic Languages in the
West Virginia University,
AND
FREDERICK LINCOLN EMORY, M.E. (Wor. Poly. Inst.),
Professor of Mechanics and Applied Mathematics
in the West Virginia
University; Mem. Amer. Soc. Mech. Eng.
FIRST EDITION.
FIRST THOUSAND.
NEW YORK:
JOHN WILEY & SONS.
London: CHAPMAN & HALL,
Limited.
1902.
Copyright, 1902,
BY
F. W. TRUSCOTT
AND
F. L. EMORY.
ROBERT DRUMMOND PRINTER, NEW YORK
| PAGE | |
| PART I. A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES. |
|
| CHAPTER I. | |
| Introduction | 1 |
| CHAPTER II. | |
| Concerning Probability | 3 |
| CHAPTER III. | |
| General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities | 11 |
| CHAPTER IV. | |
| Concerning Hope | 20 |
| CHAPTER V. | |
| Analytical Methods of the Calculus of Probabilities | 26 |
| PART II. APPLICATION OF THE CALCULUS OF PROBABILITIES. |
|
| CHAPTER VI. | |
| Games of Chance | 53 |
| CHAPTER VII. | |
| Concerning the Unknown Inequalities which may Exist among Chances Supposed to be Equal | 56 |
| CHAPTER VIII. | |
| Concerning the Laws of Probability which result from the Indefinite Multiplication of Events | 60 |
| CHAPTER IX. | |
| Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to Natural Philosophy | 73 |
| CHAPTER X. | |
| Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to the Moral Sciences | 107 |
| CHAPTER XI. | |
| Concerning the Probability of Testimonies | 109 |
| CHAPTER XII. | |
| Concerning the Selections and Decisions of Assemblies | 126 |
| CHAPTER XIII. | |
| Concerning the Probability of Testimonies | 132 |
| CHAPTER XIV. | |
| Concerning Tables of Mortality, and the Mean Durations of Life, Marriage, and Some Associations | 140 |
| CHAPTER XV. | |
| Concerning the Benefits of Institutions which Depend upon the Probability of Events | 149 |
| CHAPTER XVI. | |
| Concerning Illusions in the Estimation of Probabilities | 160 |
| CHAPTER XVII. | |
| Concerning the Various Means of Approaching Certainty | 176 |
| CHAPTER XVIII. | |
| Historical Notice of the Calculus of Probabilities to 1816 | 185 |
| Page | 89, | line 22, | for | Pline | read | Pliny |
| " | 102, | lines 14, 16, | " | minutes | " | days |
| " | 143, | line 25, | " | sun | " | soil |
| " | 177, | lines 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, 24, for primary read prime | ||||
| " | 182, | line 5, | for | conjunctions | read | being binary |