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community weblog
The War Tehran Believes Is Coming
The U.S. and Israel are preparing to resume attacks on Iran, according to senior Iranian officials and a U.S. official, and may even launch operations before next week's Israeli elections. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is fighting for his political life, and the Israeli press is rife with reports that he is looking for a way to exploit the Iran standoff to his advantage. In the U.S., President Donald Trump's approval ratings are at historic lows, and the midterm elections are less than two weeks away.
Iran's top security official, Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and personal representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told Drop Site that, in the event of an attack, Iran still has capacity to continue launching missiles and drones at various U.S. assets across the region in retaliation and that it would expand its range of targets.
posted by subdee on Oct 22, 2026 at 4:07 AM
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Still working through your article, but NPR says after the midterms. Almost makes you wonder if this isn't a grift on the prediction gambling markets...
posted by Snowishberlin at 5:42 AM
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Regarding that grift-wonder, emphasis mine:
> The senior Iranian official said Trump's approach to Iran has been focused on short-term objectives that are often disconnected from geopolitical realities or core U.S. interests, likening him to a day trader. "The wartime secrecy surrounding military operations has given him and his family exclusive and extraordinary access to information regarding forthcoming actions and the state of the markets—access that benefits only those closest to him," he said.
posted by Rat Spatula at 5:58 AM
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2nd top comment in the nyt
"Iran poses such a danger and it is so important for our security that we must continue to attack Iran. But it can be delayed for months because it might negatively affect republicans in the midterms.
The Trump administration has absolutely no credibility on this subject or any other."
posted by lalochezia at 6:01 AM
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I have total faith Trump will end the current war with Iran.
After all, he's done it six times already just since March.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 6:28 AM
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Relevant:
The State Department is preparing to order some personnel and family members to evacuate American embassies in the Persian Gulf, according to a Wednesday report from Reuters.
Multiple U.S. officials told the outlet "the move was due to a possible resumption of hostilities, particularly with Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen."
And:
"The U.S. military has quietly been scaling back its troop presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days, and the State Department is ordering a further reduction in staff at multiple diplomatic posts in the region," NBC News reports.
"The reduction of American forces and diplomatic personnel is similar to drawdowns at bases and embassies that the Pentagon and State Department initiated around the start of the war with Iran in February, the sources said. They said the moves are in response to ongoing threats in the region, including from Iran."
So, yeah, they're going to start bombing again. The death drive in American politics is a real thing.
posted by Smedly, Butlerian jihadi at 6:38 AM
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Brent up to $112 as of posting, perhaps as a combination of Iran's continued demonstrations of power over the strait and the signs of the war imminently kicking off again into another hot phase.
Maybe Talarico will poll outside the margin of error if diesel hits $9/gallon as a national average.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:47 AM
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If this is what the Trump admin is like before the midterms... just think what it will be like after the midterms. When all the medicaid and SNAP cuts kick in and especially after bond markets and stock markets tank because trying to turn the USA into a dictatorship by undermining election results is bad for the markets.
posted by subdee at 7:12 AM
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So destructive, so unnecessary.
posted by tommasz at 7:27 AM
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Election day 2004 was November 2. On November 7 Bush II started the Second Battle of Fallujah, a major escalation.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:46 AM
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Just to make everyone's day better, what about if they're planning all out war with Iran before the midterms and then use that as an excuse to cancel them ("you can't have an election during war").
posted by blue shadows at 8:48 AM
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L-BJ was elected in November 1964. Beginning in January 1965, he greatly escalated the troop presence and North Vietnam bombing.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 8:51 AM
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you can't have an election during war
Not that they have any ethos, MO, consistency, or care, but wasn't TFG telling Zelenskyy to call for elections during a war (which is prohibited by Ukraine law afaik).
posted by Snowishberlin at 8:52 AM
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After 9/11 Giuliani tried to cancel the upcoming mayoral election and was laughed off.
posted by phooky at 9:04 AM
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Everything about this is peak US stupidity at cost of innocent life. I think the thing that kills me the most is listening to financial press who treats this like a game. This probably the most finacialized war in terms of insider trading and market manipulation. It's absolutely bonkers. Supposed conservatives sitting on their hands not doing a thing.
posted by roguewraith at 9:07 AM
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"Fish rot from the head" is the saying. We can't have Soviet social support structures but maybe we'll get a corrupt late Soviet-esque military from the culture of insider trading.
posted by Slackermagee at 9:46 AM
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I think my own personal schadenfreude shrine right now is built around the fact that Kristol and Frum and Applebaum and all the rest of them are now consigned to making shocked faces on YouTube thumbnails covered in IDIOT ALL-CAPS SANS SAFETY YELLOW IMPACT HEADLINE, just as if they were MrBeast or any other such useless ninny.
posted by Rat Spatula at 9:56 AM
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because trying to turn the USA into a dictatorship by undermining election results is bad for the markets
The market does not give two shits about preserving democracy. The dip after Trump was elected is long gone and the markets have adjusted for the new normal. Election subversion is so on brand it's either already priced in, or will just be an opportunity to "buy the dip".
posted by Dr. Twist at 10:38 AM
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One of the million things I despise about this Regime is their amazing ability to turn one of the worst, most evil governments on the planet into the fucking underdogs people are pulling for, when they really should be a ostracized Pariah. The Iranian theocracy is on a killing spree of the bravest, loveliest people that went out to protest early this year over that hideous theocracy. The Guardian has a period series on these people. Its so heartbreaking. That's how vile the Trumpist Regime is....
posted by WatTylerJr at 12:26 PM
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One of the million things I despise about this Regime is their amazing ability to turn one of the worst, most evil governments on the planet into the fucking underdogs people are pulling for, when they really should be a ostracized Pariah.
I hate to break this to you but MLs/campists/tankies have been all about "only the US can commit imperialism" looooooooooong before Trump. It's funny as fuck because all of a sudden what they see as the lesser of two evils is completely fucking fine with them.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:01 PM
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Alternatively they can look at US interventions over the last century and conclude that the best way for the Iranian regime to change is for it to be left the fuck alone.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:35 PM
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Alternatively they can look at US interventions over the last century and conclude that the best way for the Iranian regime to change is for it to be left the fuck alone.
China agrees the electoral college is trash and minorities are being mistreated in the US. The only solution is to bomb US cities and invade.
posted by The_Vegetables at 1:43 PM
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Slackermagee, I dont think I made my point clearly. The Iranian theocracy is torturing and executing young Iranians who demonstrated for a better life and government. This should result in serious humanitarian pressure on that theocracy to stop that hideous activity (whether successful or not in stopping those murders).
But the Trumpist Regime with its idiotic war has not only removed any pressure to stop executing people that the outside world might bring, but has entrenched those same theocrats into an even further controlling power position over the lives of Iranian people.
Of course US intervention has lurched from one massively harmful event to another (e.g., could've let Mossadegh be a good, left leader of Iran instead of destroying his government and replacing it with a compliant dictatorship; see also Jacobo Arbenz, Salvadore Allende and on and on). But that doesn't forgive the theocrats what they are doing right now under the cover of this idiotic war.
.
posted by WatTylerJr at 3:28 PM
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Interesting.
November, 26, 1941. The US again asks Japan to cease territorial expansion cutting off oil exports 3 months prior.
August 23, 1864. Lincoln writes in secret:
"This morning, as for some days past, it seems exceedingly probable that this Administration will not be re-elected. Then it will be my duty to so co-operate with the President elect, as to save the Union between the election and the inauguration; as he will have secured his election on such ground that he cannot possibly save it afterwards."
A week later Atlanta fell.
The wiki Iran/US relations is surprisingly accurate on most points.
Mossedegh is a great example of the US undercutting three powers on the second coup, Iran, Russia, and the British.
Tudeh Party of Iran.
'It is likely many hundreds Tudeh prisoners were killed during the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners when thousands of Mojahedin and leftist prisoners were killed" [ibid]
The 88' link..."Ebrahim Raisolsadati. Mostafa Pourmohammadi. ("He also was openly critical of the decision to continue to aid Russia in their invasion of Ukraine")
"Judges of Death" perhaps but the loop of whatabout ism does its circut, the historical finger point. Thats fine but seriously, this "war"soldifies the theocracy and the state which is in a rough state. A smart US president would realize a wider coalition is needed to deesculate. Obviously, the petrol crowd is not concerned about long term effects of the price now.
This being, the US warred alot to gain its place as exporter, to not have to worry about oil supply again, just high prices.
Juxtapose the rise even after Mossedegh of Iranian revenue, how it isolated the wests influence over time in Iran as by the 70s, Saudi Arabia broke the high price.
Historically, this artifical price hike led americans and others to war to lower it.
posted by clavdivs at 10:18 PM
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"you can't have an election during war"
Little-known fact. Lincoln, in his re-election, didn't run as a Republican. They renamed the party the National Union Party.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:48 AM
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Just to make everyone's day better, what about if they're planning all out war with Iran before the midterms and then use that as an excuse to cancel them ("you can't have an election during war").
Yeah this isn't a thing. The federal government does not run elections. The election is actually hundreds of elections, run by counties and states. And they will hold the elections. They are not just electing congresspeople, they're electing governors and state legislators and mayors and school boards and so on and so forth. All of these jurisdictions aren't going to go "welp, no election, Trump said so." A lot of these people want to be re-elected or try to get elected, people want their say in things, they aren't going to cancel the elections.
posted by azpenguin at 10:54 PM
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I never in my life thought I would find myself rooting for Iran, but here we are.
posted by snapsmack at 8:44 PM
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One of the million things I despise about this Regime is their amazing ability to turn one of the worst, most evil governments on the planet into the fucking underdogs people are pulling for, when they really should be a ostracized Pariah. The Iranian theocracy is on a killing spree of the bravest, loveliest people that went out to protest early this year over that hideous theocracy. The Guardian has a period series on these people. Its so heartbreaking. That's how vile the Trumpist Regime is....
Mo Husseini on Threads (4/7/26):
When your opponent is promising to end your civilization with three exclamation marks while signing off "Praise be to Allah" on Easter morning, you do not need to be good.
You do not need to be competent or kind or decent.
You just need to be less insane than the other guy.
The hanging-teenagers-from-cranes government is clearing that bar with room to spare, which should tell you everything you need to know about where the bar currently sits: underground, in a hole, and still sinking.
posted by non canadian guy at 1:49 PM
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