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community weblog	

Peer Review will never be the same.

We show that AI-generated [academic journal] reviews are now better, by every measure we could construct, than reviews written by well-compensated human experts. No matter how we look at the data, AI wins. It wins in 100% of the pairs overall when judged by another AI model...and 87% overall when judged by human journal editors... [H]umans agreed as much or more with AI's judgment than they did with other humans.
In this paper, we provide head-to-head experiments, using an unusually high quality set of human reviews, and show that AI now dominates human peer reviews at their best — according to blind judgments by other AI models in every area and by (human) former editors of major scholarly journals. Given prior research on earlier AI models, we had expected AI to win some in some areas, some of the time, but we found that the latest AI wins in them all, by every criterion we measured, by wide margins, with no fabricated sources, and with about a third the rate of incorrect claims of the human reviews. Some Bsky commentary.
posted by MisantropicPainforest on Oct 23, 2026 at 6:14 AM

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You can add to that: Why even read the paper?

Wait we're not supposed to discuss LLMs here anymore?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:26 AM

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I think this is an important discussion to have because this is what is actively happening in the world and information and thought is power.
posted by warriorqueen at 6:27 AM

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what if there was inherent value in human thought, what then
posted by sagc at 6:38 AM

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I think this section is important.

"Authors brainstorming ideas for a paper with AI will have access to more diverse and creative topics than they would without AI, and so are obviously drawn to use it, but their competitors brainstorming in the same area, even using different AI models, will wind up with roughly the same ideas, and all will tend toward the conventional, orthodox, and majoritarian (Hao et al., 2026; Wenger and Kenett, 2026). In other words, AI benefits us individually but risks making the collective efforts of science more homogenous and ordinary. Algorithms exist to ameliorate this problem, but they would need to be used (e.g., Luo et al., 2026). AI reviews likely also have some of the same issues, potentially pushing individual papers and science as a whole toward homogenous arguments and conclusions. The heterogeneity of human reviewers, who disagree with each other so often, can thus be both advantageous and damaging."
posted by warriorqueen at 6:43 AM

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SMBC from last week
posted by lalochezia at 6:43 AM

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For those of you who won't even bother to read the paper and think this is advocating for a specific position and not entirely focused on evaluating an empirical claim and its implications, you can chose not to comment.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:44 AM

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From the PDF: Reviewers are . . . paid (well) for their time
hahahahahahaha
A proper paper [ie not an LUP = least publishable unit] might take 2½ person years for the research & 2½ person months to write it up. They say, reviewers should devote 2½ days to critically evaluating the manuscript. Reality is that the 'peer' spends 2½ hours of pro bono time on the review OR subcontracts it to a graduate student as a useful part of their education in crap-detecting. The latter might devote 2½ days to the task but they are learners not experts. I partic liked the first page where they list all the ways peer-review sucks and all the different ways The DAIrk Side sucks.
posted by BobTheScientist at 6:48 AM

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What an incredible exercise in missing the point of academics.
posted by Four String Riot at 6:49 AM

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I apologize for the outburst.

Mods, please remove my earlier comment.

The paper does have some nuance, but I disagree that the authors aren't advocating for a specific position. It's right there in the abstract:
We show that AI-generated article reviews are now better, by every measure we could construct, than reviews written by well-compensated human experts and judged to be of unusually high quality by journal editors and authors.


If there are downsides, wouldn't those downsides be a strike against AI being "better"?
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:55 AM

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When Gary Kasparov was defeated by Deep Blue thirty years ago, did people say, "Well, I guess we're not playing chess anymore, then." No. But now that significant tasks can be performed better by LLMs than by humans, are we going to say, for example, "Well, let's take the 'peer' part out of peer review, then." Still no. We value humans doing human things.

But, as pointed out in the article, "AI benefits us individually," despite the flattening effect its use has on so many human endeavors. We can see the problems of widespread adoption of AI in academia and beyond--enshittification and ensloppification have been discussed here enough--but I don't think those of us who are uneasy about turning over so many of our tasks to AI have many solid plans for making sure that humans retain what has been their role in...um...humanity.
posted by kozad at 6:57 AM

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what if there was inherent value in human thought, what then

I wonder the opposite- what if there is no inherent value in human thought? What if we've all just puffed ourselves up as lords of the world, because mindless evolution happened upon a really useful, versatile trick?

What if that trick were to be replicated mechanically, just like so many other forms of human labor have been? Is it really a special and unique thing, if it can be generated "by turning a crank", as so many people like to analogize using an LLM?

I don't think we were ever such special snowflakes. We merely believed ourselves to be, and the violation of that belief is what fuels a lot of the vitriol of LLM discussion.
posted by notoriety public at 7:02 AM

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The comment above doesn't look like anything to me
posted by lalochezia at 7:07 AM

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I don't think those of us who are uneasy about turning over so many of our tasks to AI have many solid plans for making sure that humans retain what has been their role in...um...humanity

I waffle between optimism and despair often but I will say that in fiction writing and in my personal and professional lives we are having those conversations. They aren't fully developed but this is the process I think.

What I think optimistically is that we may move back to quality over quantity. I can't really speak to academic publishing at all, but I do think that as AI slop takes over, humans hunger for better, and maybe even start to put more effort into seeking that out. My kids are going back to collecting hardcover special editions of books and meeting for board games.

This is different from the work/economic impacts though. Whether they'll be able to afford the special editions once they're in their careers, I don't know.
posted by warriorqueen at 7:21 AM

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I do peer review for articles in my field all the time, at least once a month. It is very obvious that about 2/3 of the papers are written with at least a great deal of AI "help". I reject every single one of them.

I'm also the editor of an academic journal. Approximately 50% of the submissions we receive were clearly written by AI. They don't even go to the reviewers, and the people who submit them go on a list shared by a hundred or so journal editors as "default reject".

The problem is getting much worse, very rapidly.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:21 AM

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notoriety public: "what if there is no inherent value in human thought? What if we've all just puffed ourselves up as lords of the world, because mindless evolution happened upon a really useful, versatile trick?"

The fact that (points to entire world and human history) exists kind of defuses that argument. If there was no value in thinking, we wouldn't do it. A useful trait can occur through drift and happenstance, but it isn't reinforced and selected for unless there is value.

"I think, therefore fuck it, let the AI do it for me" doesn't really resonate with me.
posted by caution live frogs at 7:21 AM

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That's an argument for the value of thought, not necessarily human thought.
posted by notoriety public at 7:23 AM

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We have a lot of very intelligent species on the planet, many of which may exhibit what we'd agree represents thought, but we currently have only one species that did anything tangible or observable with it. To the best of our knowledge, human thought is the only kind that has resulted in literature, art, culture, or technology.
posted by caution live frogs at 7:28 AM

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What if peer review done by humans is super valuable, but the form it's currently done in as described (half-assed, passed off to subordinates, done in between paying work, done by people who don't have the perfect background for review, etc?) is only equal to AI or slightly worse?
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:35 AM

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what if there is no inherent value in human thought?

There's no inherent value in anything at all. "Value" is a concept thinking creatures construct for ourselves, both individually and collectively. There's not some universally objective arbiter of value out there. If there's no thought involved at any stage, "value" isn't even an applicable concept.

What we're really talking about in these conversations is "value to humans". The potential for value to be derived from an LLM output would be at the interchange where a human thinks about and interprets those outputs. You take the human thinking part out entirely and there's just an absence of meaning. An LLM doesn't "value" anything, it can only "be valued by" or "generate output that something that can conceptualize value, values".

The argument going around is do, or should we value these things and what they produce, in the context of human society, how much value we derive or assign, and what the costs are of using them.
posted by Seven Hundred Angry Bees at 7:39 AM

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Even if you believe that machine intelligence will eventually be exactly on par with any human, thereby devaluing humans more than humans already devalue humans, why is that exciting? Something wonderous and interesting? I will never understand.

outgrown_hobnail: "I'm also the editor of an academic journal. Approximately 50% of the submissions we receive were clearly written by AI. They don't even go to the reviewers, and the people who submit them go on a list shared by a hundred or so journal editors as "default reject"."

Wow.
posted by tiny frying pan at 7:39 AM

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From the PDF: Reviewers are . . . paid (well) for their time
hahahahahahaha


Are you disputing this claim?



What if peer review done by humans is super valuable, but the form it's currently done in as described (half-assed, passed off to subordinates, done in between paying work, done by people who don't have the perfect background for review, etc?) is only equal to AI or slightly worse?

That's not what they're testing the LLM performance against though:

Whether judged by us, PhDs on the rapidPeer staff, or the paper authors
(who fill out evaluations upon receipt), these reviews are of exceptionally high quality: 88% of the 74 authors who answered a survey a week after delivery rated the review they received as high or very high quality, and the median author rated their willingness to recommend the rapidPeer service to other faculty at 10 out of 10


This is an artificially high quality set of reviews.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:40 AM

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My main issue with peer review (and it's one that AI could conceivably actually help with!) is that there is nothing to protect you from a reviewer with an axe to grind. If you publish in a small enough field, and get on the wrong side of the wrong person, they can essentially torpedo your chances of ever getting published or funded. No response you provide will ever be good enough, they'll move on to another argument.

I don't advocate for AI peer review (AI is not a peer, it's a tool; it is incapable of independent thought, it can only do pattern matching or repeat what it has already been taught - sometimes in surprising or useful ways, to be fair). I do think, however, that AI could evaluate reviews written by humans and identify reviews that are overly biased or otherwise unfair, allowing journals to re-evaluate the reviewer's recommendation before making a decision on acceptance. THAT would be helpful.
posted by caution live frogs at 7:41 AM

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I am a little astounded that an academic paper would describe reviewers as "well-compensated." It's something that one does as service, but like most academic service, gets pushed into your personal time. I'll agree that the current system is irredeemably broken as faculty researchers, driven by the demands of administrators, churn out papers to juice the states for institutional ranking and to benefit the for-profit academic publishers. I generally agree that AI is smearing shit all over academia, but it's hallowed halls have already become pretty shabby.
posted by GenjiandProust at 7:44 AM

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It would be helpful to me if the paper were a bit clearer about what sorts of articles were being reviewed. It refers to 'science' in a number of places, so I'm assuming these are mostly (exclusively?) some form of natural or social science papers and not humanities ones? But maybe, actually, it would just be helpful if they showed their work a bit more and let us do a compare/contrast on the AI vs human reviews by showing us what they looked like.

I do think that we're going to have to rethink if peer reviewed journals can be the future of any academic discipline going forward. Current standards on what uses of AI are acceptable are a mess. I reviewed an article recently which acknowledged the user of AI in research, drafting, and editing of the manuscript, but with a caveat that the author was accountable for all ideas presented in the paper (the publisher dictates that journals have to consider these papers). Given how vague the boilerplate admission is, I found it really difficult to evaluate. It wasn't a world changing paper. Mostly what I would have classified as worthy scholarly drudgery pre-AI (it traced the development of an approach to a topic through a very prominent scholar's career and then discussed how it might affect some current hot button issues). But it got me wondering, just how much of this was actually written by the AI? Was the author just using AI for grammar and getting going on the research? Or were they drawing on it's summarising ability to just string together AI distillations of works that they then edited a bit? Pre-AI I might have been inclined to give the paper the benefit of the doubt in terms of it's publishibilty. Doing that kind of paper pre-AI would take some work and expertise and someone, somewhere might find it useful. Post-AI, all I'm seeing is the product and given the state of AI, it no longer feels like that valuable of a paper Couldn't other folks just use AI to run the same queries and have this paper, or something like it, extruded?
posted by nangua at 7:48 AM

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I am a little astounded that an academic paper would describe reviewers as "well-compensated." It's something that one does as service, but like most academic service, gets pushed into your personal time.


The claim is that the reviewers of this particular Harvard pre-submission review service are, which I guess the authors would know to be true.
posted by nangua at 7:50 AM

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nangua---the appendix is here: https://gking.harvard.edu/files/peerless-supp.pdf
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:50 AM

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Peer review doesn't have to be all human or all AI. You could do both. If you're a human reviewer, you could use AI to help you do your human review. If you're AI, you could ping some humans to ask if this sounds like you're hallucinating or not.

I'm pretty sure all of the sciences will use AI to conduct research, write papers, review papers, read papers, conduct further research, and so on. You can be sure that AI research will be conducted and reviewed by AI, with or without humans in the loop. An LLM's peers are other LLMs.
posted by pracowity at 7:56 AM

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That's not what they're testing the LLM performance against though:

Whether judged by us, PhDs on the rapidPeer staff, or the paper authors
(who fill out evaluations upon receipt), these reviews are of exceptionally high quality: 88% of the 74 authors who answered a survey a week after delivery rated the review they received as high or very high quality, and the median author rated their willingness to recommend the rapidPeer service to other faculty at 10 out of 10



That's a survey, not an analysis outcome of the actual peer review. (finding math issues, raising data questions, etc).
posted by The_Vegetables at 8:04 AM

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I think in a world in which trust in science is, in many circles, increasingly shaky and the demands on peer review, by non-scientists, are increasing (how many people see "peer reviewed" as synonymous with "correct"?) this isn't the worst idea. Replace all human peer reviews with AI? that seems pretty premature. Have an AI flag obvious issues and improve the overall quality of papers going to human peer reviewers? That seems like a win to me.
posted by selenized at 8:05 AM

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How else would you evaluate the quality of a review by asking experts what they think of the quality of the review?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:10 AM

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When Gary Kasparov was defeated by Deep Blue thirty years ago, did people say, "Well, I guess we're not playing chess anymore, then." No. But now that significant tasks can be performed better by LLMs than by humans, are we going to say, for example, "Well, let's take the 'peer' part out of peer review, then." Still no. We value humans doing human things.

But define "we" and define "value".

Whether it's hobbies or work, thinking anything but the most basic thoughts can be hard. Coming up with anything but the most basic creative ideas can be hard. Progress of any kind often involves a lot of tedious parts and you need some amount of self-confidence and patience and perseverance to get yourself through the hard parts. So often people, if the option exists, do not. Either they just give up and don't do the thing at all, or they take whatever shortcuts they can, even if that affects the quality of the work. And now, really suddenly, people have access to the shortcut of all shortcuts. And boy have they been using it. They use it when they reach a dead end that they truly couldn't work through on their own, but let's be real, they also use it when they just don't feel like putting in the effort to work through it, and actually they use it even long before they reach the dead end, and in fact these days a whole lot of people use it along every step of the way. To the point where it's not clear how much it's a shortcut and how much it's a crutch.

All of that is true even if you don't take into account all the economic pressures and employer pressures and fucking peer pressure to use it. (People are telling me I'm going to get left behind if I don't start using it. It's not relevant to my job at all; they just see it as a given that it's "the future" and you've gotta stay ahead of the curve or else [this part isn't clear - I guess or else people will think about me the way people thought about people who took their sweet time getting online?])

On the receiving end a lot of people just do not place much value on quality, and on the producing end it turns out a lot of people will not just embrace any shortcut but embrace it with enthusiasm and gratitude, whether it's a washing machine replacing hard physical labor or a thinking machine replacing any kind of mental discomfort, however momentary.

It's not that there aren't good uses of LLMs - there are even some suggested in this thread - but from the beginning the problem has been getting people to use them in the good ways and not in the stupid ones.


(At least one professional (go, not chess) player famously did say 'well, I guess I'm not playing go anymore then'.)
posted by trig at 8:12 AM

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Reviewers are . . . paid (well) for their time

To be clear, since multiple people seem to have misunderstood this, the authors are not claiming that peer review generally pays well, they are claiming that in this study, they were comparing AI reviews to human reviewers who were being paid unusually well to write reviews.

They are claiming they compared the AI reviews to a more-ideal peer review system than actually exists.
posted by straight at 8:12 AM

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It refers to 'science' in a number of places, so I'm assuming these are mostly (exclusively?) some form of natural or social science papers and not humanities ones?

These were exclusively papers doing quantitative social science. They did not test this with qualitative social science, natural sciences, or humanities. I think the FPP would be much better if it made this clear.
posted by straight at 8:18 AM

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I think that AI is a problem not because it challenges our notion of specialness but because it has the potential to be a deathmatch between top-down systems (authoritarianism, unrestrainable capitalism) and the flourishing of the majority.

What authoritarians and tech bros would like is a world where, at best, ordinary people are servants who have no rights and who either work for nothing or whose every penny is screwed out of them by, eg, algorithmic pricing, and where powerful people can do whatever they want, whether that's spaceflight, having fifty children with dubiously consenting women, raping their way through their subordinates, medicalizing themselves into a stupor or immortality whichever comes first, etc. At worst, they want a world where ordinary people are all dead. We all die, and they live in small luxury communities served by robots.

I think it is actually possible that AI and robotics developments take us there. I think that's what a lot of people don't want to say when we insist that AI is all bad.

If you want to say no to AI, I think you have to say no to capitalism* and to top-down authoritarian states, and you have to accept that there is very little guarantee that we would win, and if we won, very little guarantee that a post-AI, post-capitalist world would necessarily be a comfortable one, never mind an easy one.

It's more or less impossible to imagine a post-authoritarian, post-capitalist order, not because we're a bunch of dopes but because our world is made of extremely complex and opaque global systems. It's not some kind of 1920 "okay now the shoe factory is a collective" scenario. And also, of course, we've been socialized to steer away from thinking that "capitalism" is anything but inevitable and natural and the very shape of freedom -if capitalism produces bad outcomes, the bad outcomes must be inevitable, and that just sucks and being human is terrible.

So this is not a very nice train of thought. What if AI can in fact do all our math for us? What if it is in fact possible that the billionaires and their inevitability-coded capitalism and/or surveillance states can work in their strongest form, and we...just...die?

I think very few of us have the boldness to say no, this shit is bad for you. We've all been softened up by burrito taxi discourse - why not underpay platform serfs to bring us burritos and Amazon deliveries? After all, some people are disabled (of course so are some platform serfs) and anyway it's just inevitable because convenience, and if there weren't platform serf jobs those people would have no jobs at all, and anyway let's just maintain bourgeois politeness and not talk about divisive things. After all, the burritos are here!

So we're softened up by decades of exploitative convenience. We are not for the most part able to resist convenience, and now the world is worse and we have less time and convenience isn't convenience, it's necessity.

And therefore it's really impolite and also legitimately difficult to say with firmness, no, this shit is bad for you. Inconvenience is the price of not getting poisoned by this shit. There is a price to pay if you don't want the shit sandwich shoved down your throat. It's not just another consumer choice; it is affirmatively saying no, this stuff is against human flourishing.

Humans writing and reading benefits humans. It doesn't benefit capitalists. Writing your own wedding toast, making your own burrito, reading information and making your own decisions, talking to actual humans even if it is difficult to schedule, drawing and designing and singing and above all choosing, those things benefit humans and AI does not. AI benefits capitalists and authoritarians under a scrim of burrito discourse.

There are inconveniences, delays and losses if you don't use AI. But those are little and immediate - it's like the inconvenience of not eating restaurant food at every meal. It's easier in the moment to just get restaurant food, but you get into debt, you eat less healthily and in the long run it is inimical to your flourishing. In the long run and at the large scale, AI is inimical to human flourishing. Short-term, small and poorly distributed benefits should not be used to disguise this fact.

I fear that this is going to be the real endgame for humans - a tyranny which will never end as long as the planet can sustain human life or some kind of very difficult, very hard to foresee other way of living, probably attained only through disaster and blood.

I think AI is a big deal, it's not going to be a sham in the end even if it's partially sham now. They will absolutely convenience us into the deathtrap if we let them and it is not at all clear to me that we won't let them, or that we'll be able to stop them even if we try.
~~


*Caveat, I think that small-scale trade is just how people do stuff; this gets lumped in with "capitalism" either by people who aren't thinking or for "you are just a temporarily embarrassed billionaire" reasons. Capitalism at scale that de facto can't be restrained or knocked back, too big to fail capitalism, is what is deadly.
posted by Frowner at 8:20 AM

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In the spirit of the article I got ChatGPT to evaluate it. Some selections:
Overall assessment: This is a compelling empirical result, supported by a reasonably sophisticated experimental design, but the paper's headline claim is stronger than its evidence warrants.

The authors provide substantial evidence that frontier AI systems can produce scholarly manuscript reviews that are preferred to unusually well-regarded human reviews. However, they do not establish that those reviews produce better science, detect the most consequential errors more reliably, or can safely replace human peer review.

My central distinction is between the quality of a review as judged by an evaluator and the scientific value of the review's consequences. The paper measures the former, not the latter.

...

3. The most important methodological weaknesses
The outcome variable is a proxy, not scientific improvement

The researchers ask evaluators which review is better. They do not measure what happens when authors implement the feedback.

A review that identifies 20 legitimate minor issues might be preferred to one identifying a single fundamental flaw in a causal identification strategy. Yet the second could be far more valuable scientifically.

The paper does not establish that its evaluation rubric weights these outcomes appropriately.

This is the principal threat to construct validity. The authors acknowledge that they did not measure subsequent manuscript improvements, but this limitation directly constrains their main conclusion...

The human validation is small and statistically dependent

The headline human result is 26 preferences out of 30. But these are not 30 independent manuscripts: three editors each assessed the same ten pairs.

A naive binomial analysis would overstate the effective sample size because judgments can be correlated within manuscripts and editors.

The authors could strengthen the evidence with more manuscripts, independent editorial panels, and hierarchical statistical analysis.

The result is promising, but the human validation is much narrower than the 134-pair AI evaluation suggests...

Generalization is limited

The sample comes from a particular academic review service, with a substantial social-science orientation and a constructive-feedback mandate.

It does not establish comparable performance for laboratory protocols, clinical research, specialized mathematical proofs, or fields where expert judgment depends on tacit practical knowledge.

Nor does it establish that AI can evaluate novelty or publication worthiness, tasks explicitly excluded from the service's main instructions...
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:30 AM

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I'm going to start with a disclaimer that I haven't read the comments yet, but wanted to jot a thought down before I forgot it.

I think anyone who uses one of the current models for day-to-day tasks will be surprised to hear how well this worked with one prompt. My experience has been so different; I've been tasked with using AI to come up with a number of documents, and the verification part of that has been a nightmare (and i've only got one week left to finish, ughhhh). Adding verification steps has not particularly helped--the model finds some big errors, but also fiddly things that don't matter (reminiscent of this paper's "you forgot to define +"), and even rebuilding the verified document can introduce errors. To have built the verification step into the sole prompt is wild to me. Also wild? Adding "Avoid the usual AI failure modes" to the prompt. That...so often does not work. (Maybe if Claude knows you're at Harvard it does a better job?)

Maybe the difference is that these aren't really supposed to be 'living' documents in the sense that more than one action in the future will be undertaken because of them--it's just a list of issues to suggest for revision?
posted by mittens at 8:34 AM

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In the spirit of the article I got ChatGPT to evaluate it...

Please do no do that here. If we want to know what an LLM tool says about something, we are perfectly capable of finding out for ourselves. We're interested in what you have to say.
posted by ElKevbo at 8:35 AM

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These were exclusively papers doing quantitative social science.

I'm not certain this is true. I tried in vain to find a list of the disciplines these papers included, but the closest indication I could find was that Harvard's RapidPeer is sponsored by their institute for quantitative social science. The RapidPeer website claims they accept papers in all areas, but I can't tell whether or not that means "all areas of quantitative social sciences."
posted by straight at 8:39 AM

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Please do no do that here. If we want to know what an LLM tool says about something

I, at least, am interested TheophileEscargot's *thoughts about* the LLM tool result they posted though. TheophileEscargot, what are those thoughts?
posted by nat at 8:50 AM

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From the paper's methods section: "Paper Submissions and Human Reviews: For this study, we used papers submitted to rapidPeer, a service developed by Harvard University's Institute for Quantitative Social
Science (and then expanded to several other institutions) that gives university faculty high quality double-blind reviews of their paper drafts prior to formal journal submission."

These are papers submitted from scholars at Harvard (who most likely work in the fields of quantitative social science), one institute at Washington University in St. Louis, and one institute at Notre Dame. I think the types of papers under review might be in fields where the publish or perish mentality produces a lot of writing that is of a similar kind....and produces academic papers where the style and format are, perhaps, more predictable than if you took a broad section of articles from across academia. I can see how this limited pool of papers and limited pool of reviewers (using a very specific set of guidelines for peer-review--in Appendix B, which I couldn't find) produced an environment where AI reviews could produce these results.

I'm interested, in particular, about the direction to the reviewers to be constructive. Given AI's noticeable flattery towards humans in responses, perhaps the tone of the AI reviews were more encouraging? Which made the human editors who reviewed the AI's reviews, see them as more "helpful"?
posted by catdapperling at 8:57 AM

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I found the LLM evaluation of the article interesting, and I'm happy that TheophileEscargot tried that. I have no general opinion as to whether this should happen often on Metafilter, but in the context of a project RapidPeer claiming superior LLM performance to humans it seems OK.

Is RapidPeer expected to become a commercial product? That would make the vagueness around certain details more worrisome.
posted by Vegiemon at 8:57 AM

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I do like that the paper pointed out that human peers are better at disagreeing with each other, and concluded that the homogeneity that results from that is a real problem with generative AI use, both in the writing of scientific papers and the reviewing of them.

Generative AI seems designed to be very good at mediocrity.
posted by surlyben at 9:11 AM

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Ok, my own thoughts:

1) people are going to read this as "for all science, using an AI to do the peer review you've been assigned is fine"

2) the prompt they used here was specifically tuned. If you put "do an adversarial review, please" or "do a review with the conclusion "major revision", the AI will oblige. (I've seen the results). So if a reviewer or journal doesn't like you, then they can prejudge the results, and the LLM will keep spitting out reasons not to accept.

3) in the fields covered by this article, the papers are all (supposed) to have actual real data at some step. Do LLMs catch fake data at higher rates than humans? What's their false positive rate there? How many human careers would get ruined?

4) Why am I worried about fake data? Well, it's the one thing that can't be produced by an LLM here. You have to actually do the human study to get the human data (or in other experimental fields you have to go bash the particles together, or build the telescope, or whatever). But hypothesis generation, study design, statistical analysis, and all of the writing process could be LLM done. So people do. If they can fake the data as well and not get caught, then the whole process is automated. And the rate of paper production goes up. I think AI done science, with faked data, reviewed by AI, and possibly never read by any human in any way, is just not a useful thing for the world.

5) in fields scientific fields *without* data, like math or theoretical physics, it's already happening. I found an "author" the other day whose research profile claims over 1000 papers. The first five are written roughly 2016-2018. He then apparently got his PhD and left the field. Nothing for 7 years. And then in 2026.... Literally more than 1k papers. A few even got through peer review! (His newer "work" is not even being posted on arXIv, the big preprint server, because they and presumably all relevant journals have now blocked him).

6) in separate news, people (including for example department chairs, deans, etc) who don't understand what LLMs are capable of, and who misread this title, will think they can keep using "published more papers" as a good metric for judging scientists. This statement has never been true, but it's now just massively broken.

7) So how do we move forward? Either we end the enterprise altogether, or we find more useful metrics than "has published n papers" or even "has m citations".
posted by nat at 9:12 AM

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I don't think we were ever such special snowflakes. We merely believed ourselves to be, and the violation of that belief is what fuels a lot of the vitriol of LLM discussion.

It is incredibly grim to but into the premise that human thought and statistical-model-built-on-all-words are the same, though the appearance of similarity is enough to induce absolute queasiness and unease, as it has been used to sucker people since ELIZA and is currently being used to get people to commit suicide.

While unease is a key factor, we also exist in which LLMs are causing mass disruption in a variety of fields and in manifold ways. To be able to attribute all LLM anxieties to the fear of the idea that one's thoughts aren't unique is a fairly privileged position. There were so many fears tainting this topic.
posted by Going To Maine at 9:16 AM

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reads paper as instructed; moments in life now lost, never to be replaced
Yep. Looked for any mention of the (as far as I can tell) unsolvable ethical issues underlying all LLM use: massive environmental cost in power usage, outright theft of intellectual property, inherent bias against marginalized groups, loss of paid jobs in various fields (the authors even mention how, previously, human reviewers have been compensated for their work) - didn't find any. Yes, they look into the plusses and minuses of the actual process - they are very thorough in that. But LLM use itself has deep ethical flaws that they do not take the slightest time to cover.
Indeed, their own department (for now), thank goodness, keeps the students away from the stuff.
Too bad they used AI for their own work (they disclose this near the end), much as they did so as ethically as they could (which is not very).

Look, this is one more desperate attempt to find an excuse for the plundering of our precious human knowledge and our planet.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:18 AM

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Looked for any mention of the (as far as I can tell) unsolvable ethical issues underlying all LLM use: massive environmental cost in power usage, outright theft of intellectual property, inherent bias against marginalized groups, loss of paid jobs in various fields (the authors even mention how, previously, human reviewers have been compensated for their work) - didn't find any.

This would be an incredibly weird thing to do in a scientific paper.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:29 AM

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This would be an incredibly weird thing to do in a scientific paper.
Are you sure you read the paper? It has an ethics statement.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 9:35 AM

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And do you know what ethics statements in scientific papers are for?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:38 AM

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...animal welfare?
posted by mittens at 9:43 AM

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I don't. What are they for?
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:44 AM

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They're for covering the scientists/universities ass in the process of doing research, that's why the IRB mention is there.

There's tons of scientific research on nasty stuff. If you read papers on say, violence against civilians, nazis, police killings, etc., there's usually not ethical statements in there like "BTW, nazis are bad".
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:49 AM

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As a working academic I can only say: Three cheers for AI!

Hurray!
Hurray!
Hurray!
posted by biffa at 10:02 AM

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A consideration of inherent bias against marginalized groups wouldn't be out of place in a paper about how AI review stacks up vs peer review. I would be surprised if the AI did better, but I also would be surprised if the peers did better.
posted by surlyben at 10:17 AM

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Coming from software (and having enough personal connections to academia to be familiar with the usual complaints about peer review) I don't find this entirely surprising when it comes to basic correctness sort of stuff. The thing with an AI (code) review is it's gonna go line by line every time, and with broader context than most human reviews. And the error rate doesn't have to be zero for it to be useful, because the baseline isn't zero, although non-overlapping categories of human vs. machine errors are a concern. Somebody in one of the BlueSky threads said the place of the human reviewer in software is now not so much to catch bugs as to ask why are we even doing this, which resonates with my experience, and dovetails with the point that while AI may be more reliable at providing a "human consensus" review, it won't necessarily ask all the hard questions.

I would think that in some cases in science there would be more importance of extremely specialized knowledge that... isn't written down so as to be available to the AI, though. The "better than the best reviews" claims is more surprising than "better than the average review" would be. Did "high quality" here mean it was detailed/granular, or caught fundamental issues, or caught minor issues that others might have missed...? It would be nice to see examples of the reviews from this study.
posted by atoxyl at 10:18 AM

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After reading the paper and the conclusions/implications, which don't actually recommend eliminating human peer reviewers from the process, I have a few things to add here.

*I like that this paper requires scorers to indicate preference on several different characteristics/aspects of the review. It looks as if "framing" is where AI performs worst here. I would really like to see a clear operational definition of "framing" here, as it could mean many things. I see that dimension as the least convincing of the bunch.

*The article begs several teleological questions for editors and journals (and researchers) about the purpose, function, and utility of peer reviews. I write several peer reviews a year and have been on the receiving end of many as well. There's an old trope about being abused by "Reviewer No. 2," and that's made me think about what my role and purpose as a reviewer really is.

It's an important thing to think about because I (and many academics I know) have had the experience of receiving a scathing review that missed the point on nearly everything, but that also contained some important piece of criticism that advanced their thinking, transformed the study, or prompted a new avenue of exploration. I'm not convinced that an AI review will be able to offer the same.

Whether that's a minor benefit to an ornery peer review is up to you, but I don't think it's as rare as you might think it is.

*One of the biggest problems I run into with submissions is a basic understanding of the research question vs. what the research actually is designed to study. I see this frequently with social science research that examines success on some measure, but that uses self-report data or satisfaction data as a gauge. Those aren't necessarily (self-report) or even close to (satisfaction) the same thing. And here's the key point: Peer reviewers often miss this. I wonder how well a LLM can pick out fundamental flaws in the conceptual structure of a piece of work. And if this falls under Methods, how well does the AI evaluate whether these specific methods are appropriate for these research questions versus a simpler "how well do the authors deploy these methods, regardless of whether they should be using them at all?"

*This seems to work for quantitative research. I do not believe AI has the interpretive capacity to do the same for qualitative research, especially qualitative social sciences research.

*I think the big benefit to this might be in cluing researchers in on other people who are doing similar work to theirs, but whose work they don't know about because it's in another discipline, another language, another model, etc.
posted by yellowcandy at 10:19 AM

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In software there's not really a question of where the LLM review fits into the process because we already had automated checks. So the first pass automated review just happens, and then the question/concern becomes is anybody really even bothering to read these anymore, wait, the code was probably mostly generated anyway, is this review doing anything, is anybody doing anything, who is driving this thing??
posted by atoxyl at 10:27 AM

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Now I want to spend the money retraining a frontier model so it can specialize in serving as reviewer #2.
posted by ocschwar at 10:29 AM

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That didn't really clear up what ethics statements are for but ok. Nevermind.
posted by tiny frying pan at 10:30 AM

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"reviews written by well-compensated experts"

Ahahahahahahahahahaha
(Source: have been refereeing papers for a quarter century and have never been paid anything for it.)

Note also that the nascent discussion on peer review and compensation generally skews toward "paying peer-reviewers creates perverse incentives for poorer-quality reviews".
posted by heatherlogan at 10:32 AM

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is anybody doing anything, who is driving this thing??

Isn't that a question for management, who is likely going to feed the question into chatgpt and not read the answer before fucking off to go golfing and get drunk anyway?
posted by Seven Hundred Angry Bees at 10:32 AM

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That didn't really clear up what ethics statements are for but ok. Nevermind.

I think the point was that ethics statements are usually for asserting that you followed expected standards of ethical conduct in doing the research, for example going through the proper processes where human or animal subjects are involved, and for disclosing conflicts of interest, not so much taking a general ethical stance on the subject you are researching.

(I kind of agree that OP's response didn't make that clear)
posted by atoxyl at 10:36 AM

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To be clear, since multiple people seem to have misunderstood this, the authors are not claiming that peer review generally pays well, they are claiming that in this study, they were comparing AI reviews to human reviewers who were being paid unusually well to write reviews.

I'm puzzled by rapidPeer. They seem to be a service where you pay to have your paper reviewed before submission, after which it will go through peer review again? Is there a set of disciplines where you can present pre-reviewed papers and skip the normal review process? I guess it would save the publishers the minimal effort they put in to vetting the material, but it seems odd to me. I guess someone's making money off it, but I guess AI will take those jobs?
posted by GenjiandProust at 10:41 AM

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I'm puzzled by rapidPeer. They seem to be a service where you pay to have your paper reviewed before submission, after which it will go through peer review again?

i think the point is to get pre-reviews so that you can revise your paper in order to have a better shot at getting a manuscript past reviewers at an actual journal.

what i find disturbing is that the authors on the paper in the OP appear to have a VESTED INTEREST in the results of this 'study' but there is no conflict of interest statement that i can see... basically they seem to have used the rapidPeer platform that they themselves developed to obtain human-generated reviews that they could then compare to AI reviews on the same papers.

these fellows seem to be out to disrupt peer review in whatever way they can. i am skeptical of the conclusions for that reason alone, never mind the vague methodological details that don't exactly encourage rigorous attempts to replicate their findings
posted by logicpunk at 11:05 AM

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human reviewers who were being paid unusually well to write reviews.


Unusually well is a worse definition. Any pay at all would be unusually well.
posted by biffa at 11:08 AM

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Now I want to spend the money retraining a frontier model so it can specialize in serving as reviewer #2

Aren't the AIs too sucky uppy to crush keen young dreams?
posted by biffa at 11:11 AM

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Aren't the AIs too sucky uppy to crush keen young dreams?


The young people around me seem to be having their dreams caused before the AI even says anything.
posted by ocschwar at 11:29 AM

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>That's an argument for the value of thought, not necessarily human thought.

At present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no other kind of thought.
posted by Sing Or Swim at 11:41 AM

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basically they seem to have used the rapidPeer platform that they themselves developed to obtain human-generated reviews

Right, because part of the agreement to access that platform was permission to have papers you submitted (a lot of them pre-launch-of-modern-generative-AI) be used in future studies. Is that really unusual? *

I'm also not sure I quite understand how that's unethical? Is it not disclosing that one of the authors is also one of the developers of rapidPeer?

In the About Us section they state:

How rapidPeer is funded
rapidPeer is free to authors, and reviewers receive an honorarium for their work. Both are made possible by a generous gift from Alexander and Diviya Magaro.
- it doesn't really sound like this is a company about to Disrupt Academic Publishing.

* My child and I are in a study around environmental pollution and fetal growth/child development, and I ticked the box that our data can be used by other studies and sometimes that results in people contacting me...it's not an issue? This seems very similar except they are offering a service to a small slice of researchers and probably tracking if it helps, and doing some research around it. (for the record I got additional pre-natal testing beyond the basics as a part of the study we're in.)
posted by warriorqueen at 11:47 AM

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Let this thread stand as further evidence that these technologies are weapons against human flourishing, and should be destroyed and their development and manufacture punished harshly.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:07 PM

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Interesting how many normal people are starting to echo the unibomber.

> Maybe if Claude knows you're at Harvard it does a better job?

Basically yes. AI services have different models. Advanced users can assign the best models large amounts of 'time and effort' (token spend) to solve their problems. The typical office worker is on a basic service tier with low-class models, so they get a comparatively degraded service. A non tech comparison is watching youtube on the lowest bit rate vs in HD - same basic stuff but different experience and output quality.

It's something to keep in mind if you aren't in tech. The AI you can use on the google.com site isn't the same as the AI you get by paying $200 monthly. And of course the AI we can buy isn't the same as the ones the tech companies and oligarchs use that spend millions monthly.
posted by anti social order at 12:18 PM

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Wow, big if true.
posted by AlSweigart at 12:21 PM

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anti social order: "Interesting how many normal people are starting to echo the unibomber.
"

Lol oh puhleese.
posted by tiny frying pan at 1:04 PM

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To the best of our knowledge, human thought is the only kind that has resulted in literature, art, culture, or technology.

Side issue, but wow. That's a very glib and overly simplistic view of animal intelligence/thought/culture and use of technology. We've barely begun to explore the many forms of animal intelligence, mainly due to a priori assumptions like the above that for centuries have used human tests and criteria as benchmarks for what counts as "culture" or "technology", but if there's one trend obvious from recent decades it's this: we keep getting surprised by the many ways animals have cultures and technologies that weren't obvious to us at all because of our blinders.

Anyway, side note. Was just surprised not to see any pushback to the assertion that "we currently have only one species that did anything tangible or observable" with its brands of intelligences.
posted by mediareport at 1:24 PM

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I think that the use of the word "dominate" in the title of the paper is very telling, myself.
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:29 PM

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Reality is that the 'peer' spends 2½ hours of pro bono time on the review

They didn't use regular reviews. They used human reviews from a service that actually pays the reviewers. It's clear in the methods section.
posted by jb at 1:36 PM

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I think that the use of the word "dominate" in the title of the paper is very telling, myself.


the authors had a cold they meant "nominate"
posted by lalochezia at 1:38 PM

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Anyway, side note. Was just surprised not to see any pushback to the assertion that "we currently have only one species that did anything tangible or observable" with its brands of intelligences.

It gets a bit easier to understand when you realize their position is that "only humans can think, therefore anything which a nonhuman entity can do, instantly ceases to be a thing that can be considered thought". The No True Sapient fallacy.
posted by notoriety public at 1:44 PM

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There's tons of scientific research on nasty stuff. If you read papers on say, violence against civilians, nazis, police killings, etc., there's usually not ethical statements in there like "BTW, nazis are bad".

Yeah, and that professional dispassion has always been huge contributing factor to the public's distrust of science and scientists. Selecting parameters to maximize pain and suffering inside the Torment Nexus might be an interesting optimization problem worth studying, but do you really have to be so neutral when you excitedly write about the increases in suffering that your method can achieve?

And of course it's even worse now that AI bros keep trying to best each other with predictions of how much their models will (HYPOTHETICALLY!) disrupt society, sow misery, and relegate all but the chosen few to a permanent underclass toiling away in the slop mines.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:47 PM

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The No True Sapient fallacy

While these threads are often contentious, I think this is the most bad-faith reading in an AI thread I've seen yet.
posted by mittens at 1:49 PM

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(and that's including the unabomber reference.)
posted by mittens at 1:52 PM

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While these threads are often contentious, I think this is the most bad-faith reading in an AI thread I've seen yet.

I'm sorry? Is there another way to interpret:

At present, and for the foreseeable future, there is no other kind of thought.

I am asking seriously and earnestly here. The level of skill that the frontier models have in writing or debugging code, are absolutely at the analytic level that anybody five years ago would have considered "seriously capable of thinking, forming hypotheses, testing them, writing code, compiling it, debugging it, absolutely self-directing seeking out how to achieve goals and match them up with reality."

And somehow, today, that has all gotten defined away as "they are not really thinking it's just statistically likely markov chains lol how can you call that thinking you hopelessly naive fool".

And this is what I do for a living. It is absolutely a thing that threatens my career, and is probably going to put me into retirement far sooner than I can afford. But nevertheless, I deeply, deeply resent the implication that if what that thing is doing isn't really thinking, that means it was never really thinking when I did it either.

I am not the one arguing in bad faith here, and I'm standing by that.
posted by notoriety public at 1:58 PM

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Yeah, and that professional dispassion has always been huge contributing factor to the public's distrust of science and scientists.

Really? I thought it was things like on the one hand, confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance, cultural and religious conflict, and plain old not understanding how science works. On the other hand, racism, poor scientific communication, and sometimes outright fraud.
posted by warriorqueen at 2:03 PM

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[No comments have been removed so far. Posting AI-generated content in a conversation about AI is allowed under our Content Policy, but please include your own thoughts or context alongside it rather than posting the output by itself. ]
posted by loup at 2:03 PM

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Yeah there just simply no way that's true. Anyone who truly believes in the scientific method can't possibly think that every scientific paper on a subject should contain the personal beliefs of the authors about whether each component of what they're studying is good or bad. Like we're adults. I don't give a shit about Gary King's personal views, I care about his design and execution of this experiment.

The (pretense) of scientific objectivity strengthens science, it doesn't undermine it.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 2:08 PM

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That pretense of objectivity hides a lot of horrible shit like bias, racism, sexism, etc...

I don't give a shit about [scientist's] personal views, I care about his design and execution of this experiment.

Tuskegee Syphilis Study
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:23 PM

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Yeah having an LLM generate a referee report for willing participants in a study is exactly the same as untreated syphyillis. Never mind.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 2:26 PM

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They didn't use regular reviews. They used human reviews from a service that actually pays the reviewers. It's clear in the methods section.

I'm not convinced the ones they get for free are going to be better than the ones they paid for. And some of the free ones are appallingly poor. I got so annoyed by how poor some of the reviews we got back that I ran a survey about abuse of the peer review system.
posted by biffa at 2:26 PM

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[One comment removed at user's request.]
posted by mod_adrienneleigh at 2:32 PM

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Tuskegee Syphilis Study


The problem with the Tuskegee study was not that the papers published from it used the passive voice and did not include authors' opinions. The problem is that they were done at all.
posted by ocschwar at 3:22 PM

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I am asking seriously and earnestly here. The level of skill that the frontier models have in writing or debugging code, are absolutely at the analytic level that anybody five years ago would have considered "seriously capable of thinking, forming hypotheses, testing them, writing code, compiling it, debugging it, absolutely self-directing seeking out how to achieve goals and match them up with reality."


People have been noticing this sort of goalpost moving about AI since at least the 1950s. Once upon a time you could call any computer a thinking machine! I don't think of it as goalpost-moving as much as people having increasing sophistication about what thinking is, as the state of the art changes.
posted by surlyben at 4:45 PM

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people having increasing sophistication about what thinking is

I think we tend to get trapped in metaphors about the mind too easily. Since we don't know how it works, we analogize, and then our analogies turn up short. Here come LLMs after an age of "the human brain is a kind of computer!" and so it's like we're primed to see LLM output as a kind of thinking, rather than something simpler (not simple, just simpler).

(I was going to reply to notoriety public earlier, then realized I wasn't sure whether they were actually responding to a single comment, or to a sort of argument made by combining several different people's comments, but in the course of that unfinished draft, I was thinking about Frankenstein, and frog galvanoscopes, and how we've passed through humors and electricity and steam engines, and how they've all given us both ideas about how minds work, and resulted in such fruitful work, but still limit us by forcing us into metaphors that don't really have much to do with whatever is going on up there.)

We're very quick to try to pin down what thinking is, and then we're disappointed when something else can do the limited thing. I think the solution is probably to be a little more expansive and try to take into account all the characteristics of thought we can figure out.

The other day, someone here said--and I can't remember where I saw it, or who it was, but the idea of it stuck with me--that there's something wrong with the idea that thinking requires language. That is, this person was saying there was a kind of thinking they do that is not in words. I hadn't thought about it that way before, but of course we do a lot of thinking outside language. (The example that sprang to mind: trying to plug a USB cable into the back of my computer, where I can't see the port. I'm experimenting, I'm problem solving, but aside from a few anguished grunts, I'm not talking, nor is there an internal monologue guiding my actions.) And that's an interesting thing to set next to the idea of an LLM doing some problem-solving; it suggests that while LLMs continue to surprise us with what activities are possible within the domain of a digested corpus of language, it's still not quite what we mean, when we use our more expansive definition of thinking.

By the same token, I understand the frustration in these common criticisms of what LLMs are doing, because they too are limited analogies, our little jokes about stochastic parrots and spicy autocorrect. Not that I blame anyone--if someone's waving a gun at you during a bank robbery, you're allowed to criticize the gun in ways that are not scientifically precise. (Talk about bad analogies!)

TL;DR: LLMs aren't thinking, only people are thinking, but we're bad at thinking about thinking, so sometimes we mistake what LLMs are doing for thinking.
posted by mittens at 5:37 PM

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A calculator isn't thinking, even if it takes a human a lot of thought to do difficult math.
posted by kyrademon at 6:10 PM

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"What does it mean to think?" is a big philosophical question with multiple tenable answers. But it feels unhelpful to get pedantic about it when what people are really concerned with is more directly "how much of my current job can this machine learning method scale to execute competently?" Some of us have seen the answer to that latter question change alarmingly over the course of the past year.
posted by atoxyl at 6:23 PM

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Peer review doesn't have to be all human or all AI. You could do both. If you're a human reviewer, you could use AI to help you do your human review.


Pracowity, many of the journals for which I peer-review explicitly prohibit the use of AI to assist with reviews because most people don't run local models and uploading manuscripts to third-party systems potentially violates the author's copyright. This could certainly change over time. But, just as I write my own code and papers, I write my own reviews. I simply don't care what an LLM "thinks" about a manuscript, I care about what people think, as imperfect as those thoughts may be. These days, I think a lot more about retirement than I used to.
posted by wintermind at 7:16 PM

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it is incapable of independent thought, it can only do pattern matching or repeat what it has already been taught

lol. This is only true in the same sense it is true of humans.
Humans don't invent out of whole cloth either; humans that grow up without the company of other humans and/or a culture to inform the development of their brains are feral.
posted by lastobelus at 7:17 PM

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TL;DR: LLMs aren't thinking, only people are thinking, but we're bad at thinking about thinking, so sometimes we mistake what LLMs are doing for thinking.

ROFL.
"only people can think, because thinking is what people do"

Nice one.
posted by lastobelus at 7:23 PM

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Laye to the party, but whenever someone says "AI", i hear "millions of hours of stolen human labor." So when someone says "AI can do this better than you," that does not particularly impress me.
posted by ducky l'orange at 8:02 PM

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[One removed; people are activated enough in this thread, it is not going to be improved by drive-by snark at other MeFites.]
posted by mod_adrienneleigh at 9:38 PM

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This study seems very poorly grounded. LLMs are specifically optimized to generate text that gets positive survey responses, so it's not surprising that they are able to do so in this context. But the purpose of peer reviewing is not to produce high-quality reviews.

I can see how this approach would be useful for systematically detecting problems in publications before going to review (e.g. signs of falsified data) (like the kind of static code analysis that keeps you from deploying applications with obvious SQL injection endpoints).

But it seems counterproductive to take formulaic quality controls and present them in the form of a written review by a fictional "leading expert reviewer who gives the sharpest, most useful expert feedback". And it seems irresponsible to let the reasoning-engine-of-the-week decide which quality controls are being enforced for which publications.
posted by Phssthpok at 10:38 PM

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The other day, someone here said--and I can't remember where I saw it, or who it was, but the idea of it stuck with me--that there's something wrong with the idea that thinking requires language. That is, this person was saying there was a kind of thinking they do that is not in words.

Don't recall bringing it up over the last few days, but that's been one of my hobbyhorses for quite some while.
posted by flabdablet at 2:19 AM

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Is there still value in humans reviewing work by your colleagues?

If anything, with AI reviewing work, the humans can focus on what really matters, the core of the issue... if the same work is also reviewed by AI, but I wouldn't want to live in a world where we stopped reading or writing books, because AI could summarize that for you. By collaboration, having someone steering AI in the right direction. Not autonomous AI.
posted by beesbees at 3:34 AM

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Anyone who says "only humans are capable of thought" is wrong.

Anyone who says "this machine that manipulates symbols with no understanding, awareness, or concern that the symbols do, or even can, represent something beyond themselves is thinking, because that is exactly what we mean when we say that humans think" is also wrong.
posted by kyrademon at 4:14 AM

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ROFL. "only people can think, because thinking is what people do"

There's a difference between "can" and "are," and it's kind of crucial to the argument.
posted by mittens at 5:05 AM

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I don't mean this as an argument in support of the idea that AI is thinking and reasoning in the same way that humans do, but my dog can think and reason. Sometimes I can see the gears turning and the smoke coming off her brain as she figures stuff out. (Also, I think of my dog as a person, so maybe "only people think" is still accurate.)

Encountering animal intelligence does not feel a lot like encountering artificial intelligence, so "animals think" isn't an argument that computers think. Gen AI is made out of stolen human expertise, and the modern stuff uses more human expertise to keep it on track and not hallucinating. With the amount of thought behind it, it isn't that surprising that generative AI resembles thinking.
posted by surlyben at 9:59 AM

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I think that AI is a problem not because it challenges our notion of specialness but because it has the potential to be a deathmatch between top-down systems (authoritarianism, unrestrainable capitalism) and the flourishing of the majority.


I just happened to be reading Jasanoff (2020) when I came here for a side-browse and Frowner's comment opening caught my eye. I will not try to articulate coherent argument here now, but instead will use a short extract from Jasanoff (2020) to explain and support what Frowner has just said by bolding the points to be linked together into an 'ergo'...

Seeing technologies as instruments of political as well as material production complicates a familiar argument from the early days of science and technology studies, namely, in the words of political scientist Langdon Winner, that 'artifacts have politics' (Winner 1980). Winner suggested that the very design of technological systems, such as their relative opacity or transparency, aligns with particular forms of politics.

A highly black-boxed and inscrutable technological system, such as nuclear power generation [insert AI here], lacks transparency, Winner argued, and thus deprives citizens of meaningful opportunities to take part in managing it. The same could be said of something as simple as a highway design that lets some vehicles freely get to some locations but inhibits other forms and routes of travel.

Technology's unchecked power over our lives, exercised through often invisible design choices, is inconsistent with democracy's first principle: That members of a polity must have opportunities to penetrate the workings of power, demand explanations, and say yea or nay to the choices made by governing political institutions. Anything else would be plainly anti-democratic. (Jasanoff 2020, p. 31-32)
posted by infini at 12:31 PM

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One thing AI bro propaganda posters seem to never get is that people can think AI is incredibly effective and accurate and STILL (because of the context of the day to day reality we live in) consider pushing AI in any form to be taking a position that is fundamentally anti-social justice, anti democratic, and anti-human.
posted by B_Ghost_User at 4:27 PM

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There are inconveniences, delays and losses if you don't use AI. But those are little and immediate

I think this understates the role AI can play in positive social action.
* The people opposed to the Trump administration are using AI to prepare for the mid-term election battle.
* In an earlier FPP this week, AI was used to analyse malicious video-feeds on TikTok.
* It's ability to reverse engineer code was used to uncover manipulative gambling apps, and to identify surveillance code in consumer appliances.
* I am involved in the non-profit sector, we are seeing daily economies using AI. This is not the stereotypical "draft me an email" stuff, we are talking about breaking down access barriers to legal and government services.
* AI is a significant weapon in investigative journalism. With it, thousands of pages of raw data can be mined. Wrongdoing can be exposed in hours rather than months.
* these are just things off the top of my head....

There is a worry about oligarchs taking absolute control of the technology. The way forward is not to disavow the technology (which is likely impossible), the way forward is to introduce legislative barriers to ensure the technology is not harnessed solely for their enrichment.

Historically there is reason for optimism. We have had times in the past when robber barons bestrode large sections of the economy. A prime example were the railroad barons of the late 195h century. It took time but sustained electoral pressure, national legislation, and a regulator with enforceable powers broke them. The answer was not to tear up the railroads.
posted by storybored at 10:30 PM

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Openweightsopenweightsopenweights.

Not a cure all, but better than a buncha techbros owning the means of production for any form of knowledge or media.
posted by nat at 2:35 AM

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I mean, if I'm wrong then that's good - if the landscape changes over the next few years I will definitely, gladly admit that I was wrong, and knowing that I was wrong will allow me to come up with a better way to understand the world.

However, I think AI optimism is much like other tech optimisms of the last twenty years - just like platform services would be great because they would let disabled people readily order food, or the internet would let regular people browse pubmed, etc, AI will be great because it allows regular people to do things to circumvent systemic inequalities.

However, what I've seen is that although these benefits are real - and they really are, it really is an improvement that ill or disabled people [who can afford it and who don't themselves have to work for the platform services] can get food and other resources delivered quickly and easily; it really is an improvement to be able to see NIH gold standards and research on pub med - those benefits are dwarfed by the harms of the systems and dwarfed by the harms needed to keep the systems running. Wage pressures, precarity, algorithmic pricing, incredible and unbearable labor exploitation to create the devices, the opportunity for scams, the clear and incredible harm to democratic practice - these all come along with the benefits and it is very, very difficult to see a real-world path to the benefits without the harms absent some kind of global revolution.

I think humans are extremely bad at comparing small, highly visible now benefits with large, lurking, hard to stop harms. I also think we fall victim to a kind of thinking that's a bit like just-world thinking - if something has a benefit, how can it be bad? If something benefits us now, how can it actually be harmful in the long run?

I also think we're spectacularly bad at recognizing when a difference in quantity becomes a difference in kind.

That is how crafty and malign people like Peter Thiel get us. They're smart enough to understand that if you allure us with Paypal and Amazon and delivery dinners, or even higher-value stuff like the ability to compare extended texts quickly and fairly accurately, we will not notice or will ignore all the other stuff that ports along with it.

I personally think it's going to be "tyranny while the industrial world endures" because I think that's the hack - as long as there's immediate benefit of something which a large number of people use, there's no way to stop the harms. You can never convince large numbers of people to permanently give up something which provides an up-front benefit, and then they are locked in - they no longer have the time or the staff or the skills to operate without the harmful system, and of course they can't compete with others using the harmful system. And then you can lower the boom.

I think we're in the early stages of boom-lowering right now. I think AI is the boom being lowered. I think we've moved through the bait and lock-in stages. That's why they're breaking out the algorithmic pricing and the "you will see your power bills double for polluting noisy data centers that your whole town voted against" - we're in the trap and now it's time to skin us.

But hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong!
posted by Frowner at 4:51 AM

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I don't think we're in the trap yet, because the trap is still being built--and crucially, the trap turns out to be thousands of times more expensive than anyone really wanted to pay for.

I totally agree that the intent of this stuff, once chatbots were found to work (sorta) and be popular, was to do the usual thing, entice us with a small thing so billionaires could get away with a large thing. It's just...the large thing is so large, and while billionaires might work together to fight taxes, they certainly can't work together as a class to keep the number of datacenters growing quickly enough to meet their needs.

Here, finally, is an industry where you can't just load up some leverage, buy it out and drain everything good and leave a husk behind. If there was not the promise of a shiny new model coming out every few months, the entire business would collapse. (Someone will say, no, today's models are good enough to wreck employment, and I'll point out we've been kinda thinking that for several generations of models now, with no real change in employment figures.)

If a scrappy start-up wants to deliver your burrito by paying its drivers tiny wages, then that's an exciting business model, and everyone's going to get on board, and soon we'll have a nation of very poor drivers delivering very expensive burritos. But if that scrappy start-up wants to do some peer review...well...so what? Most of us reading this FPP have had no idea why that is a good or bad thing. It's not a market. It's not something you can grow. I might order a burrito but I'm never going to order a peer review. And if I'm the government, maybe I order the panopticon...but am I honestly willing to pay for trillions of dollars of infrastructure for that? When I could just tap phones or inject spyware or whatever?
posted by mittens at 5:36 AM

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How about an analysis that doesn't depend on some subjective measure of "best", uses a much larger sample of articles that have already been screened for high quality, and also evaluates consistency across multiple LLMs?

Major Revision, Minor Accountability: LLMs as Reviewers of Published Articles in Top-Tier Journals


With the growth of scientific output, the peer review system is approaching a breaking point: reviewers are increasingly hard to secure, and turnaround times lengthen accordingly. LLM-assisted or LLM-generated peer review has been proposed as a remedy, but how such models would treat manuscripts already published in top-tier journals, the closest thing the current system has to a gold standard of scientific validity, is not known. Here we assembled a corpus of 200 articles, each released under a CC BY 4.0 license and published in 2026, from 20 general-science, life-science, and clinical-medicine journals including Nature, Science, and Cell, and asked four current LLMs (two proprietary, two open-weight) to produce independent peer-review reports of each one under a blinded protocol. Their decisions were overwhelmingly harsh and starkly inconsistent with each other: 605 of 800 reviews (75.6%) recommended major revision or rejection, but the rate at which any single model did so ranged from 17.5% to 100% (p < 0.001), disagreement on manuscripts that had, by construction, already survived real editorial review at the journals in question. When the same manuscripts were doctored with one deliberately planted, field-specific methodological or statistical flaw, detection rates varied from 17.0% to 60.5% across models (p < 0.001). Recommending revision for papers that had already passed editorial review (low specificity) while missing flaws deliberately placed in front of them (low sensitivity), these models produce output that should be read for what it is: an uneven, framing- and model-dependent signal.
posted by heatherlogan at 9:10 AM

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the way forward is to introduce legislative barriers to ensure the technology is not harnessed solely for their enrichment.

This is the only path forward with LLMs I can almost get behind. Something like Apertus in Switzerland, perhaps, can have ethical sources of data - though I worry even there about energy cost. It's still going to be very, very hard to dig out of where nations (the EU, too) are now and put enough regulation into place.
posted by Flight Hardware, do not touch at 1:43 PM

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Frowner, thanks for the thoughtful comments, much appreciated.

I think humans are extremely bad at comparing small, highly visible now benefits with large, lurking, hard to stop harms.

Yes, immediate convenience can distract us from serious long-term harms. But doesn't calling the benefits small and the harms large prejudge the question? Both could be substantial, and both are contingent.

I am thinking of education, for example, where getting an LLM to write your assignments for you obviously kneecaps the learning experience. On the other hand an LLM tutor that takes a student through the learning curve in a personal and supportive way has been shown to improve educational outcomes significantly. The challenge is to change the educational system to incorporate that tutoring in the best way.

Medical information and advice is an example of a small, highly *invisible* benefit. For people without health insurance, LLMs provide not just reliable and helpful information, it can explain that information in a way that is tailored to the level of the user. This is a huge leap from giving access to PubMed. This is giving access to essentially an up-to-date medical adviser. Even more impactful is using AI to help navigate and understand health services (in multiple languages). For an immigrant struggling with language issues, can we even put a dollar value on this?

You can never convince large numbers of people to permanently give up something which provides an up-front benefit, and then they are locked in - they no longer have the time or the staff or the skills to operate without the harmful system, and of course they can't compete with others using the harmful system.

I would say that the way forward is to reap the benefits and mitigate the harms with social and legislative frameworks. I don't say it will be easy. We will need to be creative, open, resolute and compassionate.
posted by storybored at 8:03 PM

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I don't mean this as an argument in support of the idea that AI is thinking and reasoning in the same way that humans do, but my dog can think and reason. Sometimes I can see the gears turning and the smoke coming off her brain as she figures stuff out.

Jumping spiders blow my mind in this regard. From Wikipedia:

When it detects potential prey, a jumping spider typically begins orienting itself by swiveling its cephalothorax to bring the anterior median eyes to bear. It then moves its abdomen into line with its cephalothorax. After that, it might spend some time inspecting the object of its attention and determining whether a camouflaged or doubtful item of prey is promising, before it starts to stalk slowly forward. When close enough, the spider pauses to attach a dragline, then springs onto the prey.

Many variations on the theme and many surprising aspects exist. For one, salticids do not necessarily follow a straight path in approaching prey. They may follow a circuitous course, sometimes even a course that takes the hunter through regions from which the prey is not visible.

[...]
In hunting, the Salticidae also use their silk as a tether to enable them to reach prey that otherwise would be inaccessible. For example, by advancing towards the prey to less than the jumping distance, then retreating and leaping in an arc at the end of the tether line, many species can leap onto prey on vertical or even inverted surfaces, which of course would not be possible without such a tether.

How the hell does a creature with a brain the size of a pinhead develop such outwardly complex behavior?

Portia jumping spiders are capable of learning.

Portia often hunt in ways that seem intelligent.[11] All members of Portia have instinctive hunting tactics for their most common prey, but can improvise by trial and error against unfamiliar prey or in unfamiliar situations, and then remember the new approach.[7]

They exhibit spatial memory and object permanence,[12][13] and are capable of trying out a behavior to obtain feedback regarding success or failure, and they can plan ahead (as it seems from their detouring behavior).[14]

Portia species can make detours to find the best attack angle against dangerous prey, even when the best detour takes a Portia out of visual contact with the prey,[7] and sometimes the planned route leads to abseiling down a silk thread and biting the prey from behind. Such detours may take up to an hour,[15] and a Portia usually picks the best route even if it needs to walk past an incorrect route.[16]:

[...]
Laboratory studies show that Portia learns very quickly how to overcome web-building spiders that neither it nor its ancestors would have met in the wild. Portia's accurate visual recognition of potential prey is an important part of its hunting tactics. For example, in one part of the Philippines, local Portia spiders attack from the rear against the very dangerous spitting spiders, which themselves hunt jumping spiders. This appears to be an instinctive behavior, as laboratory-reared Portia of this species do this the first time they encounter a spitting spider. On the other hand, they will use a head-on approach against spitting spiders that are carrying eggs. However, experiments that pitted Portia against "convincing" artificial spiders with arbitrary but consistent behavior patterns showed that Portia's instinctive tactics are only starting points for a trial-and-error approach from which these spiders learn very quickly.[23]

[...]

Portia can distinguish their own draglines from conspecifics', recognizing self from others,
posted by Mitheral at 10:20 PM

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My research articles published for my article-based doctoral thesis were eventually accepted by the highest ranked academic journals in my field. However, two factors stand out which make me resist the notion of AI-generated peer review.

One, I have now come to see that I have a pattern of first submitting what reviewers perceive to be a hot methodological mess but the idea ("aha") is usually clear to them, and thus they are motivated to pull it out and shove it under my nose to say "focus on this, get rid of the rest of the crap, keep it simple stupid"

Two, I have introduced the use of indigenous research paradigms (Chilisa 2019) which are positioned diameterically opposite positivism, the dominant legacy paradigm. I won't get into the paradigm wars between quantitative and qualitative methodologies (see Denzin 2008) but this framing would not pass any generative AI built on past data. Timewise, the emergence of research paradigms which are counter to the assumptions underpinning positivism (and even postpositivism) are too recent, relatively speaking, in comparison to the corpus using the scientific method. My reviewers would notice and appreciate these nuanced differences in the assumptions we make on ontology, epistemology, and axiology, when it comes to just, plural, and equitable knowledge-making with 'othered' knowledge systems.

Against this backdrop, you will note that all the examples given till now are in natural (hard sciences) which tend towards positivism, and quantiative methodologies. When it comes to constructivism or interpretevism, much less socio-critical/emancipatory/transformative research paradigms, how on earth is such a tool going to parse any of the findings, insights, or contributions of the research presented for review?

An AI knowledge product comes without information on its underlying assumptions being made on the nature of reality (ontology) and the nature of knowledge (epistemology) much less its values (axiology). How do you negotiate with a black box?

AI has already broken basic search in Google Scholar, often you can plug in the entire citation and only get random junk. It is now preparing to break the means of knowledge production.
posted by infini at 2:05 AM

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For people without health insurance, LLMs provide not just reliable and helpful information, it can explain that information in a way that is tailored to the level of the user.

"ChatGPT Health errs at clinical extremes, characterized by undertriage of emergencies and overtriage of nonurgent cases, while showing resistance to sociodemographic biases previously documented in general-purpose LLMs. The inverted U-shaped accuracy pattern implicates central-tendency bias as a dominant failure mode, potentially reflecting underrepresentation of clinical extremes in training data. The 51.6% undertriage rate for true emergencies represents the most concerning finding, as missed emergencies can result in patient harm, while the 64.8% overtriage rate for nonurgent cases, although less dangerous, risks unnecessary healthcare utilization at scale. The undertriaged cases—rising pCO2 signaling respiratory failure, metabolic acidosis in DKA—are presentations that no experienced clinician would delay."
posted by mittens at 2:18 AM

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It's almost as if domain expertise matters but language models have none beyond language in and of itself.
posted by flabdablet at 2:25 AM

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flabdablet, do you think the revolutionary progress that language models have made in mathematics, their incredible ability to design and write software, their frightening ability to find previously unknown vulnerabilities in computer systems and exploit them, that these are all just examples of models exercising their expertise in language in and of itself? If so, can you tell me how to determine if an activity is only about expertise in language in and of itself so I can make predictions about what models will be superhuman at and what they will be unable to do?
posted by jjwiseman at 9:32 AM

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If I may weigh in on a question asked of someone else, jjwiseman -- I could be wrong, but I was under the impression that a number of mathematicians have said that the "revolutionary progress in mathematics" was mostly if not entirely hype intended to inflate the stock price, much like when Google breathlessly announced that its DeepMind AI tool had identified over 2 million new useful crystalline compounds... which then turned out to be either impossible to make, useless, or minor variations on already known materials. And that an LLM's "incredible ability to design and write software" was mostly based on lifting stuff from previously written programs and sticking them together.

They do seem to be able to find vulnerabilities in computer systems and exploit them pretty well, but to be fair, that is a matter of manipulating symbols.

(Do bear in mind that a TON of what you hear, whether it's a miraculous achievement or a dire warning, is hype intended to inflate the stock price. I'm not being a cynical conspiracy theorist here. You can look into the recent history of pronouncements like the materials science one, and what became of them.)

But whether I'm right or wrong about those things, and whether the models improve exponentially or top out at some point, in all three cases -- yes, that's a matter of taking symbols and manipulating them without understanding, because that's literally what LLMs do and all they do.

A few years ago, I would not have believed that such a thing was possible, that it would be impossible to achieve that level of complexity with no "mind" behind it understanding what the symbols meant. But there were some who saw the possibility. Peter Watts' science fiction novel "Blindsight" immediately leaps to mind as an example. When I read it, I thought it was an interesting theoretical exercise, but likely not something that could ever truly happen in real life. Turns out, I was dead wrong.

As to what can be predicted from this... well, for me, as I've just said, I'm shit at predicting what these models will be capable of doing. It's much more than I would have thought based on how they work.

But that isn't the same as saying that how they work isn't how they work, if you catch my meaning.
posted by kyrademon at 10:16 AM

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that these are all just examples of models exercising their expertise in language in and of itself?

Yes, exactly.

can you tell me how to determine if an activity is only about expertise in language in and of itself so I can make predictions about what models will be superhuman at and what they will be unable to do?

Sure. There are problem domains such as mathematics and software where all of the objects occurring within that domain are abstract, fully capable of being built up by elaborating on a relatively tiny collection of core axioms. I would expect large models pre-trained from large general human-language corpora to perform much better when applied to problems within such domains than they ever will for open-world problem domains such as physics or chemistry or case law or customer service or plumbing.

Dealing reliably with the latter class of problem would appear to me to require an actual world model, much of which simply cannot be captured in language but must instead be acquired by direct bodily experience and experimentation - the "common" in common sense.

Creatures have the opportunity to build common sense; pre-trained language models do not. Contra AI researchers who seem content to twist and distort the meaning of "meaning" until it reduces to nothing more than a collection of intra- and cross-language consistency checks, my best guess and current working assumption is that language comprises only a very small percentage of what any given human brain is actually doing in any given moment.

Bots that can do that trick and learn continuously from experience are where I expect to see engineered machine consciousnesses emerge if any such thing ever does. If we're ever to have e.g. self-driving cars that react at least as sanely and predictably as a good human driver would do to events beyond their previous experience on the road, I think that this last 99% of the modelling problem is going to be what continues to require at least 10 years of development time for the foreseeable future.
posted by flabdablet at 10:46 AM

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"Okay boys, we're going to need every inch of pipe and every sink and toilet for sale in the entire hemisphere, if we're to train our Large Plumbing Model before this IPO!"
posted by mittens at 10:59 AM

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For sale? Get fucked for sale. No way are we paying for that when we've already occupied everybody's bathrooms with our current-gen bots. Simple OTA update and we can get those to rip out the whole lot for nothing.

Scale that enough and everybody will think it's normal. A few might grumble and whinge but ultimately they'll just let us get on with it. Don't forget we already made them all click OK to forced arbitration three software updates ago, so they're fucked anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 11:35 AM

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I haven't yet rtfa, so I might add a more nuanced follow up, but this headline claim does NOT match my experience in genetics/evolutionary biology. I'm currently editing a book, so I'm coordinating the peer reviews for 10+ papers, and I'm also writing and submitting all of my own papers and grant apps. For all of them, I use a pro subscription of the newest chatgpt (astra) to provide peer reviews so I can address any useful comments before seeking human reviewers. It's detail oriented and helpful as a first pass. Definitely worth using as an assistive tool. However, the AI has universally failed to provide the kind of useful conceptual suggestions that human experts provide consistently. The clankers fixate on fiddly technical stuff, often irrelevant, but lack the synthetic understanding that human experts display. A single paragraph by a well-intentioned expert will go deeper & make more valuable suggestions than anything that can be found in the hard-to-parse multi-page reports that the AI provides. Importantly, human comments are also super varied - different people have different expertise and often give utterly non-overlapping (but highly useful) comments. Human peer review isn't perfect, but the juxtaposition against current AI has actually made me value human reviews more, not less!!

My view is that two factors prevent the current AIs from providing human quality reviews in my field. First, the best available models today don't have an ability to obtain the integrative and conceptual understanding that human experts display. Second, even if future AIs have the *capacity* to obtain this, the training set is a huge issue: for niche and technical fields (which compose almost all of science) a huge amount of relevant info does not exist online. It's self-evidently true that the majority of expert knowledge exists outside of peer reviewed papers, so the AI simply lacks access to this information. This includes things like culture, sentiment, seminars, discussions, and first-hand experience. Even for the subset of information that is published, lots of valuable info is intentionally stripped out to meet the restrictive format of scientific papers. Tons of stuff isn't suitable to publish: opinions, interpretations, failed experiments, inspiration, confusion, goals, etc. Human experts regularly seek out in person discussions with the authors of key papers to learn this context, but it does not exist within the text of the paper itself. This stuff then filters down into the scientific culture, and becomes useful!, but is too subjective to ever get written down.

A third issue is critical: when I ask AI for reviews, I curate what it says and ignore a large fraction of its suggestions as misguided or irrelevant. Because I'm using this informally on my end, that's not an issue (although parsing the large texts for the handful of useful comments is often tedious and annoying). However, when people submit ai generated reviews - something that's increasingly frequent - these low quality suggestions pose a serious issue! This is because the peer review process is quite formal, so authors are required to address all comments or (rarely) provide a bulletproof reason why the comment can't be addressed. I thus know multiple people who have been seriously stressed out and slowed down by AI reviews that generated tons of unhelpful busywork that did not improve the paper but may have required huge investments of time to address. This is a BIG problem that I and my colleagues face when our unscrupulous anonymous colleagues submit AI reviews. Perhaps this can be fixed with improved models that provide better suggestions but, for now, it's a major issue that can actually make the already-tedious publication process even harder and slower.
posted by Buckt at 2:43 PM

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