Originally posted by the Voice of America. Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America, a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in the public domain. Myanmar's Junta Cool on Commitment to ASEAN's Plan for Stabilizing Country Zsombor Peter The Myanmar junta'sequivocalreaction to a plan itagreedtowith its regional neighbors for pulling the country back from the brink of collapse is raising doubts aboutthe junta'scommitment to follow through anytime soon. Since Myanmar's military toppled the country's elected civilian governmentFebruary1, the junta has shot and killed hundreds of mostly peaceful and unarmed protesters andsent thousands fleeing to neighboring India and Thailandseekingrefuge.United Nationsofficials andenvoysare warning of a pending humanitarian crisis and all-out civilwar. In a bid to keep the crisis from spiraling out of control, leaders of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Myanmar, met in Jakarta, Indonesia, on April 24 with coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. A statement from the current chair of the bloc, Brunei, said the leaders reached a "five-point consensus" includinga call foran immediate end to the violence and talks "among all parties concerned." In the days that followed, though, Myanmar's junta issued statements of its own calling the points in the plan mere "suggestions," which it would consider only when Myanmar "returns to stability" as its priority was to "maintain law and order." The statements said the junta had also considered labeling a clandestine committee set up by the ousted lawmakers a terrorist organization under local laws. On Saturday, state-run TV reported that both the committee andthe oppositionNational Unity Government had been declared terrorist groups. "This is not what was in the spirit of what was agreed at Jakarta in the context of the five-point consensus. Senior GeneralMin Aung Hlaing did not providethose kinds of qualifying commentswhen he agreed to the five-point consensus in Jakarta," said Moe Thuzar, a fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies who co-leads the group's Myanmar studies program. She warnedthat the remarks couldportenda rocky road for the plan's future. "For the junta to make this kind of qualifier after the fact does not indicate that ASEAN's follow-up to the five-point consensus agreement is going to be in that constructive manner that ASEAN was emphasizing," Moe Thuzar said. "It's not an outright rejection, but clearly it shows that the junta wants to try toscope thingstheir way," she added. "It's either showing its reluctance to commit or it's trying to '¦ set conditions." Trainees take part in military exercises with the Karen National Union (KNU) Brigade 6, an armed rebel group in eastern Karen state on May 9, 2021, amid a heightened conflict with Myanmar's military following the February coup. In addition to ending the violence and holding talks, Brunei said the leaders agreed that the bloc would provide humanitarianassistanceand that Brunei would appoint a special envoy tofacilitatethe talks and to visit Myanmar to meet with "all parties concerned." The chair's statement offers no timeframe or details on when or how to put the plan into action. Analysts say that gives Myanmar's military, or Tatmadaw, plenty of room to decide how that happens. "It's exploiting thevaguenessof the deal and the lack of agreed timeframe to its own advantage,as opposed to rejecting the deal outright. And it will try to sort of delay this as much as it can and ensure that in the meantime the Tatmadaw's own kind of blueprint for how the country should run prevails," said HervĂ© Lemahieu, Myanmar and Southeast Asia analyst at Australia's LowyInstitute. The Tatmadaw has justified the coup by claiming, without evidence, that the 2020 general elections that delivered the ruling National League for Democracya second term wereriddled with fraud. It has promised to holdnewelectionssometimeafter a one-year state of emergency, though many expect it to delay and to disqualify the widely popularNLDfromrunning candidates. One of the key questions the five-point plan leaves unanswered is the precise meaning of "all parties concerned." Brunei's statement sets no boundaries, leaving many to wonder whether it includes the NLD, any of the many ethnic minority-based parties and associated armed groups in the country, or the National Unity Government,whichthey have forged since the coup to challenge the junta. "We don't know, and that will also be up to the Tatmadaw largely to determine," Lemahieu said. "The Tatmadaw really has control over the timing and then control over how you operationalize this plan." ManytopNLD leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung Sang Suu Kyi, have remained in custody since their arrests on the morning of the coup, while others are in hiding to keep from joining them. Fighting between the Tatmadaw and some ethnic armed groups has also spiked. "It's notvery clearwho [are the] stakeholders in the statement. Without a clear definitionandcommitment from the regime, it will still be difficult to implement," said Min Zaw Oo, who heads the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, a local think tank. He said that at some point an ASEAN envoy may visit and humanitarian aid might arrive.Given what the junta has said and done since the meeting in Jakarta,though,hesaid hedoes not expect the Tatmadaw to let the five-point plan blow it far off the course it has already set for the country. "I don't think there will be any radical change different from the course the regime is steering in Myanmar, which is the new election and probably changes [for a] new electoral system," he said. "The regime is forcing it through within one or twoyears, verylikely two years, so I don't think the ASEAN decision '¦ will have a major impact on the regime's major roadmap to where it is leading to." .