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Why Fellow Southeast Asian Nations Can't Censure Myanmar over Human Rights

Ralph Jennings

   TAIPEI - Southeast Asia's powerful negotiating bloc has ignored
   pressure to chase Myanmar over violence and suspected human rights
   problems, ensuring that a negative spotlightdoes notturn on other
   members or threaten the group's prized neutrality, analysts believe.

   They say any public condemnation of Myanmar's junta government, which
   took power in a February 1 coup, or the threat of action against it
   would expose at least five other Association of Southeast Asian Nations
   (ASEAN) members to scrutiny over human rights issues as perceived by
   critics in the West.

   "If ASEAN violates and crosses the line by passing judgments oneach
   other'sinternal affairs, this would be slippery because most ASEAN
   governments have skeletons in the closet," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak,
   a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

   Bloc members Cambodia, Laos, Thailand,Vietnamand the Philippines have
   been accused of mishandling human rights and civil liberties over the
   years.

   As of Tuesday, 841 civilians havebeen killed and 5,576 arrested in
   Myanmar since the February 1 coup, the advocacy group Assistance
   Association for Political Prisoners says. The junta took over after
   popular elections in November signaled consolidation of the country's
   decade-old, pro-democracy reforms. The military ruled Myanmar, also
   known as Burma, before 2011.

   Myanmar border nations Bangladesh and China have urged ASEAN to act,
   while the United Nations has proposed an embargo on arms sold to
   Myanmar despite protests from ASEAN member countries.

   ASEAN's Jakarta-based secretariat did not answer a request this week
   for comment on the Myanmar issue.However,leadersfrom the bloc are
   expected to [1]visit the country this week to discussdevelopments,
   according to reports. ASEANmembership, which includes Myanmar, has a
   non-interferencepolicy amongst memberstates.

   Non-intervention outlook

   ASEAN, with 10 members spanning a population of about 660 million,
   traditionally avoids interfering in the domestic affairs of any single
   country and prides itself as a bloc focused on helping all members get
   ahead via trade, cross-bordertraveland anti-COVID-19 measures. Many of
   the 10member nationshave deep disagreements with one another thatdo
   notsurface at formal ASEAN events.

   The Southeast Asian group lacks the power of other regional blocs, such
   as the Economic Community of West African States, said Oh Ei Sun,
   senior fellow with the Singapore Institute of International
   Affairs.ECOWAS responds tocoups by suspending member countries and
   imposing sanctions.

   Country by country

   Democratic nations in the bloc, particularly Indonesia, have put
   pressure on Myanmar individually, especially as more problems there
   could spark an outflow of refugees. Some among the Muslim Rohingya
   population that has sparred with Myanmar's government for decades have
   already fled to Malaysia and Indonesia.

   "I think Indonesia as the largest, most powerful, most populous country
   in Southeast Asia, it is in a sense trying to play a
   morecommensuraterole to its size and power," Oh said.

   Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan in March called
   Myanmar's unrest"an unfolding tragedy" and said other Southeast Asian
   countries need to develop a response.

   Refugee crisisfeared

   If Myanmar "sinks into a civil war-like situation" and violence
   escalates, ASEAN will feel more pressured to act so the region avoids a
   refugee crisis, said AlexanderVuving, a professor at the Daniel K.
   Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii.

   ASEAN's strength--and onlyoption--would be talks, experts say. The bloc
   regularly pulls in China,Japanand the United States for talks on other
   issues. "If violence stays high or increases, ASEAN will be less
   patient, but ASEAN,because it's working on the principle of
   consensus,doesn't have a better alternative than just
   dialogue,"Vuvingsaid.

   ASEAN could draw on its strength in "convening" countries in pairs or
   in bigger groups including non-members, said Priscilla Clapp, former
   permanent charged'affairesat the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar.

   Myanmar unfazed

   Myanmar for its part could seek support from Asia's most powerful
   nation China if it came under too much criticism, Thitinan said. China
   is not an ASEAN member and some existing members, such as Vietnam and
   the Philippines, have their own disputes with Beijing. China and
   Myanmar historically have close ties despite friction over Chinese
   investments in the Southeast Asian country.

   Myanmar's coup leaders areprobably payinglittle attention to ASEAN's
   dilemma, Clapp said. They are "wrapped up in an alternative
   universe,"she said, and the military leader Min Aung Hlaing has
   "surrounded himself with yes men."

   "He's confident in no intervention by ASEAN," Clapp said.

References

   1. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-amid-divisions-asean-leaders-plan-myanmar-visit-this-week-2021-06-01/

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