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Q&A: Power Grab by Myanmar Military Changes'¯China Relations

Adrianna Zhang

   For insight into how China's relationship with Myanmar may change after
   the military seized power Monday, VOA Mandarin reporter Adrianna Zhang
   spoke with Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia
   program and director of the [1]China program at the Stimson Center.
   Here is their conversation, edited for clarity and concision.

   VOA: How did we get to the situation we are in today?

   Yun Sun: Well, I always argue that one of the central problems for
   Myanmar is the unsettled relationship between the civilian government
   and the Burmese military. That conflict has never disappeared, even
   with the democratic process over the past 10 years. We know that the
   ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) won 83%, a landslide victory
   in the election, and to the military's great disappointment, the USDP
   -- the Union Solidarity and Development Party that has military support
   -- only won a couple of seats, so they did not do very well in the
   election.

   I think the military has raised the issue of electoral fraud and the
   voting fraud as a tactic or a strategy to challenge the election
   results. So, I think what we are seeing is that the military had such a
   loss, expressed their grievances and demanded political concessions
   from the NLD government. And now, the government refused to accommodate
   or refused to be co-opted or to be coerced. And we know that over the
   weekend on Saturday and Sunday, negotiations between the military and
   the NLD did happen. And they were not able to achieve a consensus as to
   what kind of compromise either side is willing to accept. So, that's
   what has caused the military coup as we know it.

   Do you think this is a coup?

   YS: All the signs and all the evidence that we have seen so far points
   to the fact that this is a coup.

   So, it's not just the military seizing power in accordance with the
   constitution?

   YS: The question that you're asking is that if the military was acting
   according to the constitution, then it's not a coup. I think that's
   highly debatable. For example, the constitution says only the president
   has the power to announce the state of emergency in the country. In
   this case, I would say that the military did appoint the vice
   president, who is from the military, to be the interim president and
   then announced the state of emergency, which is not, strictly speaking,
   constitutional.

   What do you make of China's response, and what risks does the military
   seizing power pose to Beijing's interests?

   YS: I think the Chinese reaction is just as expected. We know that
   China does not take a position on the internal affairs of another
   country, so nobody should expect China to step in, to condemn the
   military or to express its support of the NLD government. And based on
   what we saw out of the statements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry,
   China wants the related parties to solve their differences properly,
   according to the constitution and within the legal framework, while
   maintaining peace and stability in the country. So, that is very
   classic or very typical of the Chinese position in the case of the
   internal turmoil of another sovereign country.

   Is it going to have an impact on Chinese national interests?

   YS: I think it does. Remember, State Counselor Wang Yi was just
   visiting Myanmar about three weeks ago. And during his visit, he
   expressed strong support for the NLD government and expressed a strong
   commitment that China wants to work with the NLD government during
   their second term.

References

   1. https://www.stimson.org/program/china/

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