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Special Envoy to Restive Myanmar Draws Mixed Reception

Zsombor Peter

   BANGKOK - Myanmar's shadow government says it welcomes the Association
   of Southeast Asian Nations' appointment of a special envoy to
   helpresolve the country's post-coup crisis even assome rights groups
   reject the choice and regional lawmakers raiseconcerns.

   ASEAN, a 10-nation blocthat includesMyanmar,or Burma,named
   Brunei'sSecondMinisterofForeignAffairsErywanYusofto the envoy role last
   week. The appointmentcomessix months afterMyanmar's military toppled
   the country's democratically elected government, touching off mass
   proteststhe junta has met with a bloody crackdown and hobbling efforts
   to beat back a raging COVD-19 outbreak.

   Ousted lawmakers, ethnic minority groupsand leaders of a grassroots
   civil disobedience movement have joined forces under the banner of a
   National Unity Governmentto trytowrest control from the junta. The
   NUG'sspokesman andminister of international cooperation,Sasa, who goes
   by one name, welcomedErywan'sappointment.

   "I would definitely like to see his success as much as possible, and we
   are here and stand by ready to engage with our special envoy," he told
   VOA. "At the end of the day he is in the best position[to help]."

   All parties concerned

   Sasasaid he has spoken withErywansince the coup and established an open
   channel of communication with the diplomat from Brunei, which has been
   leading ASEAN's efforts to deal with the crisis as this year's chair of
   the bloc.

   The ad hoc role of ASEAN special envoy to Myanmar is part of a
   five-point plan the bloc's leaders agreed toonApril 24 at anemergency
   meetingto addressthe post-coupcrisisin the country. The plan tasksthe
   envoy with visiting Myanmar to meet with "all parties concerned" and
   mediating talks between them.

   The military regime running the country declared itself a caretaker
   government on August 1 and named senior general Min Aung Hlaing, who
   led the coup, prime minister. It hadpreviously declared the NUG a
   terrorist organization.

   SasasaidErywan'smissionwouldbear fruit only if the juntaletshim engage
   "freely and openly and honestly" with all groups, including the NUG,
   and if he draws up and sticks to a time-boundaction planthat includes
   the release of political prisoners.

   "There needs to be a timetable for everything that needs to be done.
   The people of Myanmar are dying, and if there is no timetable then it's
   not going to work," he said.

   Major powers have delegated responsibility for finding a diplomatic
   solution to Myanmar's crisis to ASEAN. Yet the blochas come under fire
   forthe slowness ofputting its five-point plan into action--it
   tookleaders morethan three months to name an envoyamid reports of
   infighting over who to name.

   Speaking to reporters in Brunei over the weekend,Erywansaid he should
   be given full access to all groups when he visits Myanmar but gave no
   indication of when that would be.In a televised address days
   earlier,Min Aung Hlaing said he was ready to work with ASEAN's envoy.

   A crisisof faith

   Rights groups arewaryat best of the envoy's prospects of helping move
   Myanmar back onto a democratic path.

   In a joint statement on Friday,local civil societygroupsflatly
   rejectedErywan'sappointment because ASEAN gave the NUG no say in
   theselection process.The statement did not name the groups, fearing for
   their safety, but claimed support from more than 400 organizations.

   In a statement of its own immediately afterErywanwas named, ASEAN
   Parliamentarians for Human Rights, a caucus of past and present
   lawmakers from across the region,said it had "legitimate concerns"
   about him.

   The group criticizedErywanfor meeting only with junta leaders at the
   head of a diplomatic mission to Myanmar in June, before he was
   appointed special envoy, and "pushing their narrative" ofholdingnew
   elections rather than recognizing the results of a 2020 poll the
   generals' proxy party decisively lost.

   Kyaw Win, executive director of the Burma Human RightsNetwork, said
   many in Myanmar have little faith inASEAN's special envoy because they
   have little if any faith in ASEAN itself.

   "What the people of Burmaare seeing is a very doubtful view
   ofASEANbecause for the past 30 yearsASEANhas a verycosyrelationship
   with the military.'¦ This is the perception in people's minds inBurma,"
   he told VOA.

   The militaryfilled Myanmar'sASEANseat from 1997, when the country
   formally acceded to the bloc,until2011 whenthe generalsbegan ceding
   some controlto a quasi-civilian government.The juntahas been allowed
   tofill the seatagain since February's coup.Itsopponents say
   thatdemonstratesthe bloc's bias for the junta and confersthe regimea
   degree of international legitimacy it has no right to.

   "There is no neutrality here, so howcan we'¦ trust that he [Erywan]
   could deliver what the people of Burma [are] fighting for?" Kyaw Win
   said."I don't think there is lots of hope."

   Step by step

   Any special envoy tapped by ASEANwill be bound by the bloc's
   tacitacceptance that the junta is now running Myanmar,saidMinZawOoofthe
   Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security, a local think tank.

   "So,it doesn'tmatterwhether it's him [Erywan] or another envoy in
   place.As long asthey are working within theASEANcharter
   andASEANframework, there will always be the limitation," he said.

   Working within those constraints, the envoywillbe hard pressed
   topersuadethe junta to sit down with the NUGany time soon, the analyst
   added. Buthe said there was still hopeErywancould get talks going
   between the military and other groups, namely the National League for
   Democracy, at least thosememberswho have not jointed the NUG.

   The NLDpartycame to power after a landslide election win in 2015 and
   easily secured a second term in last year's polls.Its topleaders
   wererounded up the morning of the coup andhave beenput on trial for
   sedition and other charges widely seen as trumped up, including the
   toppled government's de-facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

   "The envoy's efforts may jumpstart the dialogue among the stakeholders,
   so the military, some of the civil societies, political parties, the
   NLD,DawAung Sang Suu Kyi and ethnic group leaders. That could be partly
   successful. That means there could be a dialogue, or at least the envoy
   could talk to all the stakeholders to hear them out for the next step
   to move forward," said MinZawOo.

   Unless the envoy can eventuallypullthe NUG into the process, though, he
   doubts ASEANand its special envoycan ultimately bring Myanmar out of
   its crisis.

   "More or less we could not expect much; there will not be a total cure
   to the situation," he said. "The potential for possible dialogue, yes,
   but not likely a solution."

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