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Border Chaos, Food Shortages: Stark Warnings for Britain on No Deal Brexit

Henry Ridgwell

   LONDON - Britain will face severe disruptions at its ports and food
   shortages if it fails to strike a trade deal with the European Union
   before the end of the year, according to a [1]new report, which also
   warns that the economic impact of a no deal Brexit would be three times
   that of the coronavirus pandemic.

   Britain officially left the European Union on January 31, and the
   current transition period is due to end on December 31. The British
   government warned Wednesday that most businesses that trade with Europe
   had yet to prepare for the coming changes.
   The recent report from Kings College London's UK in a Changing Europe
   program warns that "the most immediate and visible impact of a no deal
   with the EU will be seen at the border, with risks of queues and
   shortages of food."

   That would be felt most acutely around the port of Dover, where some 4
   million trucks use the ferry and Eurotunnel rail crossings to and from
   Calais, France every year. Even with a trade deal, Britain will leave
   the EU's single market and customs union, meaning some new checks and
   trade barriers will be unavoidable. Without a trade deal, there will be
   much greater disruption, with Britain and the EU imposing tariffs on
   each other's goods.

   The British government warned Wednesday that up to 60 percent of heavy
   goods vehicles (HGVs) may not have the right paperwork.

   "They'd therefore be turned back by the French border authorities,
   clogging the Dover to Calais crossing," Cabinet Minister Michael Gove
   told lawmakers. "And in such circumstance, that could lead to queues of
   up to 7,000 HGVs."

   There will also be significant disruption for British travelers to the
   EU, says Kings College report co-author Jonathan Portes.

   "You'll need health insurance. It's unclear how international driving
   permits will work; if you apply to go for work you may well need a
   visa," Portes told VOA in an interview Thursday.

   Eighty percent of Britain's economy is made up of services. In London,
   Portes says banks and financial services are already prepared for no
   deal. "And so they've relocated legal entities, some staff and so on to
   deal with that."

   JP Morgan Chase is the latest bank to announce such a move this week --
   shifting $230 billion in assets from London to Germany.

   Britain's economy has already shrunk by a fifth this year owing to the
   coronavirus pandemic. The report warns the economic effects of a no
   deal Brexit could be much greater.

References

   1. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/What-would-no-deal-mean.pdf

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