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Nagorno-Karabakh Fighting Raises Threat of Deadly Escalation

Associated Press

   MOSCOW - A Russian attempt to broker a cease-fire to end the worst
   outbreak of hostilities over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh in
   more than a quarter-century has failed to get any traction, with rivals
   Azerbaijan and Armenia trading blame for new attacks.

   The failure of the truce that was supposed to begin Saturday reflects
   the uncompromising positions of the two South Caucasus nations that
   have stymied decades of diplomatic efforts. The escalation of fighting
   raises the specter of a wider conflict that could draw in Russia and
   Turkey and threaten Caspian Sea energy exports.

   A look at some military and geopolitical aspects of the conflict and
   its potential fallout:

   Roots of the conflict

   Nagorno-Karabakh, populated mostly by Armenians, was an autonomous
   region inside Azerbaijan during the Soviet era. Historic tensions
   between Christian Armenians and mostly Muslim Azerbaijanis, fueled by
   memories of the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman
   Turks, exploded in the final years of the Soviet Union.

   In 1988, the region sought to join Armenia, triggering hostilities that
   morphed into an all-out war as the USSR collapsed in 1991. By the time
   a 1994 cease-fire ended the fighting, an estimated 30,000 people had
   been killed and up to 1 million were displaced. Armenian forces not
   only held Nagorno-Karabakh itself but also seized substantial chunks of
   land outside the territory's borders.

   Nagorno-Karabakh, a forested, mountainous territory that covers about
   4,400 square kilometers (1,700 square miles), the size of the U.S.
   state of Delaware, has run its own affairs ever since, relying on
   Armenia's support.

   Failed peace initiatives

   Ever since Armenian forces routed Azerbaijani troops in the war,
   international mediators have sought a political settlement.

   Russia, the United States and France, which co-sponsored the
   Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks under the aegis of the Organization for
   Security and Cooperation in Europe, have put forward numerous peace
   initiatives, but Armenia's stiff resistance to surrendering any land
   has been a key stumbling block.

   Azerbaijan, meanwhile, has relied on its oil wealth to modernize its
   military and now argues that it has the right to reclaim its land by
   force after nearly three decades of failed international mediation.

   Military disparity

   While separatist forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian
   military continue to rely mostly on aging Soviet-built weapons,
   Azerbaijan has completely revamped its arsenal with state-of-the-art
   attack drones and powerful long-range multiple rocket systems supplied
   by its neighbor and ally, Turkey.

   More than two weeks of fighting has shown that Azerbaijan has clearly
   outgunned the Nagorno-Karabakh forces and put them on the defensive.
   Azerbaijani troops have made significant advances in several areas
   around Nagorno-Karabakh and showered its towns with rockets and
   artillery shells.

   Armenian forces have countered with Soviet-built howitzers, antiquated
   BM-21 rocket launchers and obsolete Tochka-U missiles that lack the
   punch and precision of Azerbaijan's more modern weapons.

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