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Rapid Change in Kyrgyzstan May Escalate Belarusian Protest Tactics

Jamie Dettmer

   The effort to unseat autocratic Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko
   may be heading for a new phase.
   Belarusian activists, impressed by the success of protests in
   Kyrgyzstan, where protesters managed to pull off a "revolution in one
   day," are now debating whether to copy the Kyrgyz tactics and storm key
   government buildings in Minsk.
   On Telegram, the messaging app used by Belarusian protesters to share
   uncensored information and discuss strategy, Kyrgyzstan is being cited
   as a possible model of how to proceed in their weeks-long bid to oust
   the country's president, following a disputed August election in which
   he claims to have won a sixth term in power.
   Some analysts worry that an escalation in protest tactics in Belarus
   will fan Kremlin alarm about a new wave of "color revolutions," in turn
   prompting Russian leader Vladimir Putin to dispatch Russian forces to
   Belarus.
   Putin has already said he has created a police reserve for Lukashenko
   to use, if events get "out of control" in Belarus.
   So far the Russian leader has held back from ordering a military
   intervention, but Russian security advisers and senior Kremlin
   personnel are suspected by Western diplomats of helping to coordinate
   the suppression of the pro-democracy opposition in Belarus.
   Putin and Lukashenko discussed developments in Kyrgyzstan in a phone
   call midweek, according to the beleaguered Belarusian leader. Midweek,
   Russia acknowledged it had issued an arrest warrant for Belarusian
   opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who left Belarus for
   Lithuania after the election, following threats to her family.
   Kyrgyz protesters, outraged by what they saw as rigged parliamentary
   elections on October 4, overran the parliament and ransacked the office
   of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov. The action forced election officials
   to annul the results of the vote and to announce plans for re-running
   the poll.
   But political chaos has now unfolded. Jeenbekov declared a state of
   emergency Friday in the capital, Bishkek, ordering troops to deploy, as
   supporters of rival political groups took to the streets after days of
   unrest following the overturned election.
   Video of the Kyrgyz protests has been reposted on Nexta, a Telegram
   channel that's served as a key communication platform for the
   anti-Lukashenko protesters. Nexta praised the way their Kyrgyz
   counterparts achieved "revolution in one day," according to George
   Barros, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a
   Washington-based research group.

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