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Biden Presidency Could Be Watershed Moment in US-Turkey Relations, Analysts
Say

Dorian Jones

   ISTANBUL - Turkish analysts say Joe Biden'sprojectedpresidential
   election victory could prove to be a pivotalmoment in Turkey's
   relations with the United States--one that could see Ankara pivoting
   back to its traditionalWestern allies or furtherdeepening ties with
   Russia and China.'¯

   While many European leaders were quick to offer'¯congratulations'¯to
   Biden, Turkish PresidentRecepTayyipErdoganbelatedly issued a statement
   Wednesday acknowledging Biden's victory.'¯In it,Erdoganstressed the
   "strategic" nature of bilateral ties andsaid theyshould be further
   strengthened based on common interests.

   The Turkish leaderalso sent a message toPresident DonaldTrump,thanking
   him.'¯

   Under Trump, critics say,Erdoganpaid little price forconfrontingfellow
   NATO members andcozyingup to Moscow, with the U.S.president opposing
   calls in the U.S.Congress forsanctionsagainst Turkey.

   A Biden presidency, someanalysts are predicting, will bring very
   different things forErdogan.

   "The message from Biden will be to Turkey, do behave like an
   ally,"saidInternational relations teacher SoliOzelof Istanbul'sKadirHas
   University.Hetold VOA hebelieves Biden's victory could be a watershed
   moment in bilateral relations.

   "A Biden presidency gives you the opportunity to actually change
   tracks, not necessarily giving up on your interests but change your
   style. But if Turkey insists on defying everyone, I don't think we can
   get anywhere, and the key to that is the S-400,"Ozelsaid.

   TheS-400is an advanced missile system that Turkey bought from Russia
   despite Washington'swarningthatthe purchase violated U.S.law and that
   the missile's radar compromises NATO defense systems.

   A defiantAnkara test-fired the system lastmonth,despite awarning
   fromU.S.senatorsthat the move would trigger sanctions.'¯

   TurkishForeignMinisterMevlutCavusoglu,speaking ata Novembergathering of
   Turkish ambassadors, called on Washington to get over its objections to
   theS-400, declaring the issue was "done."

   Biden's challenge

   Among the first critical foreign policy decisions Biden could face is
   whether to sanction Turkey over the S-400.Erdogan'sdeepening ties with
   Russian President Vladimir Putin are raising concernswithin NATO.

   Under the so-calledCountering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions
   Act, CAATSA,Bidenhas a broadrangeof options when it comes to sanctions
   -from symbolic to severe financial measures.

   The U.S.couldtake actionagainstTurkey'sstate-ownedHalkbankforviolating
   U.S.sanctionson Iran. Despite a New Yorkcourt jailing of a
   seniorHalkbankofficial in 2018 forextensive violations of
   Iransanctions, the U.S.Treasury Department has so far held
   offonpenalizing Turkey.

   In early 2021,Halkbankfaces charges againina New York court
   forallegedsanction-busting.

   Analysts say thatuntilnow,Ankarahasbanked on its strategic importance
   to avoid sanctions. Turkey borders Iran, Iraq, Syria, hosts a
   U.S.radarbase, and allows the U.S.military to operate from
   itsIncirlikairbase, one of the region's largest.

   Observers warnTurkey could be overplaying its hand. "Plenty of people
   in the United States believe they can manage things without Turkey,"
   cautionsOzel, who says Washington'sneed forIncirlik"is being questioned
   more seriously today than before."

   Analysts sayAnkara's hardline stance towards Washington is perhapsa
   negotiating ploy.They say Mr.Erdoganis aware thatBiden will likelytake
   a more robust stance towards Moscow and that Turkeycan play a critical
   role in that strategy.

   "No doubt there is a lot of anger directed at
   Turkey,atPresidentErdoganhimself,"saidAsliAydintasbas, aseniorfellow of
   the European Council of Foreign Relations."There will be a tendency
   also to see if the U.S.can peel Turkey back from its reliance on
   Russia. And I thinkErdoganknows how to play this game; he knows how to
   play the U.S.against Russia and vice versa, and that will be an
   interesting dance to watch."

   Butsome warn of far-reaching consequencesifthatdanceshould endwith
   U.S.sanctions onTurkey.

   "Hostile actions against Turkey will eventually align Turkey with the
   Eurasian and Asia powers like Russia and China,"saidretired
   AdmiralCemGurdeniz. "This is going to be inevitable because they are
   threatening the very existence of Turkey."

   The legacy of Turkey's2016 failedcoup by disaffected military officers
   could also bea complicating factor for Biden.Suspicions in Ankararemain
   that theObama administration, which Biden served in, was involvedin the
   attempted military takeover, a chargeWashington has denied.'¯

   ButAydintasbassaysBiden's experience of working with Turkey could
   servethe relationship well.

   "The tail end of the Obama administration relations between Turkey and
   Washington was pretty bad. But Biden himself emerged as
   anErdoganwhisperer. It was Biden who was dispatched to Turkey after the
   failed coup attempt in 2016 to repair the
   relationship.Sotheone-on-onerelationship between the two may not be so
   bad,"he said.

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