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Ethiopia's Tigray Region Conflict Raises Fears of Civil War

Mohammed Yusuf

   NAIROBI, KENYA - Ethiopia's military conflict with its
   independence-minded Tigray region has raised fears of civil war in
   Africa's second most populous nation. It also raises concerns about
   regional instability spreading if the conflict continues.

   The conflict between the Ethiopian government and fighters loyal to the
   Tigray People's Liberation Front is entering its second week. Some
   8,000 Ethiopians have crossed into Sudan for safety and aid agencies
   expect more in the coming days.

   The conflict started when Tigray fighters attacked a federal government
   position last week in what the government called an attempt to loot
   weapons and equipment. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed ordered military
   action to end the armed uprising.

   Comfort Ero is the International Crisis Group Africa Program director.

   "Right now what we see is more fighting, more entrenched positions by
   both sides. Even if the Tigray forces are squeezed and overpowered you
   may see a strong resistance attack, a guerilla type attack resistance
   and that's possible. We don't see the Tigrayans being governed anytime
   soon from Addis, and we could be looking at a long, protracted
   situation," said Ero.

   Tensions have been building since September, when Tigray region, one of
   Ethiopia's nine regional states, defiantly held a local election after
   Abiy postponed the polls due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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