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Laos Bids to Shed Least Developed Country Label

Zsombor Peter

   KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Laos has a good chance of climbing out of
   Least Developed Country status after the United Nations reviews its
   social and economic progress next year but may yet be held back by
   thecoronaviruspandemic and ballooning debt to China, economists and
   analysts say.

   The tiny communist country of 7.2 million people on China's southern
   border is one of 47 nations that still bear the U.N.'s LDC label, which
   comes with international aid and free-trade privileges.InFebruary a
   special U.N. committee that vets the countries' progress every three
   years may decide that Laos is ready to graduate, sappingtheaid and
   trade benefitsprovided to LDC nationsbut boosting its odds of
   attracting more foreign investment and versatilelow-interestloansthat
   would sustain economic growth and viability.

   Laos has made graduating a key policy goal for years. It passed its
   first of two requisite consecutive reviews in 2018 by meeting two of
   the three criteria the committee gauges progress by -- gross national
   income per capita, whichwas thenset at exceeding$1,242,and human
   assets, a measure ofthe increase inhealth,educationand literacyof the
   population. It failed to meet the third, economicvulnerability,a
   measure ofhow susceptible a country is toeconomic and environmental
   shocks that couldaffectsustained economic growth.

   The X factors

   Ananalyst and twoeconomistswho watch Laos closely told VOA recently the
   country was very likely to meet the same two criteria it met in 2018 at
   its second review in February. If it does, Laos could officially shed
   its LDC status by 2024, after the standard three years to prepare.

   It helps that the data the committee will be using in February for the
   three core criteriaonlygo up to 2019,before the COVID-19
   pandemic.However,the committee will also be drawing on a flexible set
   of "supplemental graduation indicators and country-specific analysis"
   that will show the pandemic's social and economic tollonLaos.

   "Based purely on those three criteria I'd say it's very likely that
   Laoswill be above the line on at least two if not all three of the
   criteria. But then of course there'sall ofthe other things that would
   need to betaken into account, so I wouldn't want to prejudge the
   outcome of the review yet," said Matthew Johnson-Idan, senior economist
   for the U.N.residentcoordinator'soffice inLaos.

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