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No Sure Way to Predict Impact of Loosening COVID Restrictions

Steve Baragona

   As some states moved to open their economies from the pandemic lockdown
   this week, [1]The New York Times reported that a government model
   predicted a dramatic increase in the death toll from COVID-19.

   The estimate that nearly [2]3,000 people would die per day by June was
   disavowed by the modeler, who said the data was incomplete.

   But the report came the same day that another modeling group [3]sharply
   increased their forecast of how many would die of the disease.

   The new estimate of nearly 135,000 deaths by August is more than
   [4]double what the group was predicting just three weeks ago.

   The group, at the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics
   and Evaluation, is among those advising the White House on COVID-19
   policy.

   But it's by no means the only group modeling the pandemic's trajectory.
   Data analysis blog [5]FiveThirtyEight.com highlights six major groups
   whose ranges of death toll predictions vary by tens of thousands.
   Differences among their state-level forecasts are even more
   significant.

References

   1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-death-toll.html?smid=tw-share
   2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/government-report-predicts-covid-19-cases-will-reach-200000-a-day-by-june-1/2020/05/04/02fe743e-8e27-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html
   3. http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/new-ihme-forecast-projects-nearly-135000-covid-19-deaths-us
   4. http://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/files/Projects/COVID/Estimation_update_041720.pdf
   5. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/?ex_cid=story-twitter

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