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'Salmon for Stetsons': Britain Hopes US Trade Deal Will Pressure Europe

Henry Ridgwell

   LONDON - Britain and the European Union began crucial talks this week
   on their future trading relationship after the Brexit transition period
   ends December 31, leaving less than 10 months for the two sides to
   negotiate and ratify any deal. On the same day as the talks began,
   Britain published its negotiating position for a trade agreement with
   the United States. London hopes the parallel discussions will give it
   leverage in negotiations with Europe.

   Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised to 'drive a hard bargain' with
   the United States as Britain published its mandate, pledging a boost
   for both economies as Britain traded "salmon for Stetson hats."

   Beyond the stereotypes, Britain wants to open up markets in areas like
   car manufacturing, professional services such as law and architecture,
   artificial intelligence, big data and food processing. Formal
   negotiations are expected to begin later this month.

   The best-case scenario is a $19 billion boost for the British economy
   over the next 15 years or 0.16 per cent of GDP, according to government
   figures.

   "That's 0.1 or 0.2 percent you wouldn't otherwise have, so that's
   fine," says trade expert David Henig of the European Center for
   International Political Economy. "I think President Trump said it might
   double or triple U.S.-U.K. trade. That was unrealistic," he said.

   However, the government's forecast also suggests Brexit will cost the
   economy far more -- around $168 billion or 6.7 % of GDP growth, even
   with the type of trade deal envisaged by Boris Johnson.

   "For the UK, the EU is our largest market. It's approximately 50% of
   our trade and whilst deals with the U.S. or Australia can help a little
   bit, nothing will really replace that," said Henig.

   Britain has also ruled out opening up key areas of its economy to the
   United States.

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