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World Populations May Shrink After Mid-Century

Steve Baragona

   WASHINGTON - The era of expanding human populations may beending,
   according to a new study, with major implications for societies,
   theeconomyand the environment.

   The world's population may top out at roughly 9.7 billion around 2064,
   up from about 7.8 billion today, before shrinking to 8.8 billion by the
   end of the century, according to estimates published in the journal
   [1]The Lancet.

   The IHME estimate contradicts the benchmark forecast from the United
   Nations Population Division, which expects the population in 2100 to be
   10.9 billion and rising.

   U.N. Population Division chief John Wilmoth calls the projection
   "extreme."

   If it proves to be correct, however, the consequences of a shrinking
   population would be far-reaching.

   "I think this is one of the more profound changes that's faced humanity
   ever," said study co-author Chris Murray, director of the Institute for
   Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

References

   1. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

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