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US-Brokers Nile Dam Deal Still Deadlocked

Patsy Widakuswara

   WASHINGTON - The latest round of talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and
   Sudan in Washington has stretched into its fourth day as the parties
   struggle to reach a comprehensive agreement on the Grand Ethiopia
   Renaissance Dam (GERD), a massive hydropower dam project on Ethiopia's
   Blue Nile River.

   The White House released a statement saying President Trump spoke with
   Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Friday, and "expressed optimism"
   that a deal was close.

   The tripartite meeting hosted by the U.S. Treasury is the parties'
   last-ditch attempt to resolve the question of the operation of the dam,
   particularly the filling of its reservoir, an issue that has triggered
   concerns of a "water war" between Egypt and Ethiopia.

   The meeting was scheduled to end Wednesday but continued until Friday
   without an agreement on filling the reservoir.

   The U.S. Treasury released a statement Friday that the parties will
   continue to work on the legal and technical aspects of the agreement
   for a signing by the end of February. The agreement would include a
   schedule for a stage-based filling plan of the reservoir, and a
   mitigation mechanism for filling and operations during periods of
   drought and prolonged drought.
   Ethiopia and Egypt have been negotiating for years, but several
   technical sticking points remain, including the duration and rate at
   which Ethiopia will draw water out of the Nile and the quantity of
   water that will be retained. Cairo fears Ethiopia's plans to rapidly
   fill the reservoir could threaten Egypt's source of fresh water.
   The technical details of how, when, and where the water will flow are a
   life-and-death matter for each party," said Bronwyn Bruton, deputy
   director of the Atlantic Council's Africa Center. Bruton added that the
   situation is complicated by "international organizations and mediating
   third party countries, which all come with their own interests and
   agendas."
   With the Trump administration's urging, last November the parties
   agreed to hold four technical governmental meetings at the level of
   water ministers with the World Bank and the United States attending as
   observers. They agreed to a deadline of January 15, 2020, for reaching
   an accord. When they failed to reach an agreement, the parties agreed
   to another round of talks this week.
   The main issue has been a lack of consensus, said Mirette Mabrouk,
   director of the Egypt Program at the Middle East Institute. "Ethiopia's
   priority has been to complete the dam and Egypt's priority has been to
   ensure that its near sole source of water is not decimated," Mabrouk
   said.
   A flexible treaty
   In previous statements, the ministers have recognized that flexibility
   in trans-boundary water management is essential considering the
   constantly changing levels of the Nile.
   They have agreed that guidelines for the filling and operation of the
   GERD "may be adjusted by the three countries, in accordance with the
   hydrological conditions in the given year."
   However, competing hydrological and political interests have hindered
   negotiations.
   The director of the Water Institute at the University of North
   Carolina, Aaron Salzberg said that parties are striving for an
   agreement that is "easily codified in terms of numbers" --how fast you
   can fill, how much water is released." At the same time, he says, the
   agreement must establish a joint decision-making process that allows
   flexibility in responding to changing conditions, but not one that may
   be "too open to interpretation and set the stage for conflict down the
   line."
   This is not something that should be forced, Salzberg added. "The
   parties themselves must drive the process. This is an agreement that
   will need to last multiple lifetimes," he said.

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