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Is Vietnam Safe as US Steps Back from the China Trade War?

VOA News

   China and the United States have just enacted an agreement this month
   that allows for a temporary truce in their two-year trade war. From the
   point of view of Vietnam, one of the main nations caught in the middle,
   is the truce good news or bad news?

   Many people worldwide are hoping for a permanent end to the trade war
   between the two biggest economies, which may have decreased world
   economic growth in 2019 to 3%, instead of 3.8%, according to the
   International Monetary Fund. Those hopeful people include the
   Vietnamese. However there are still some reasons that continuing the
   trade war could be good for Vietnam.

   First, most obviously, the U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports motivated
   companies to move from China next door to Vietnam to avoid the tariffs.
   As a result Vietnamese exports to the U.S. increased 28% in the first
   three quarters of 2019.

   Second, the U.S. may be distracted by the trade war, which is a
   possible benefit for Vietnam that has not often been discussed.

   "Vietnam hopes China will drag out U.S. talks," said Fred Burke,
   managing partner of Baker & McKenzie Vietnam, a law firm, late last
   year.

   If Washington is too busy negotiating with Beijing, in other words, it
   has less time and manpower to deal with Hanoi. U.S. President Donald
   Trump, who called himself the "Tariff Man," has expressed interest in
   issuing more duties on Vietnamese exports, but most of his
   trade-related attention has been taken up by China instead.

   Trump's main complaint about Vietnam is that it has a large trade
   surplus with the U.S. That may simply be a result of U.S. customers
   preferring to purchase Vietnamese exports, but nevertheless Trump's
   preferred response is to issue tariffs.

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