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Will the Latest Iran Protests Spark a Popular Uprising?

Brian Padden

   WASHINGTON - Days of protests against Iranian leaders over the
   accidental downing of a Ukrainian airliner appear to indicate public
   anger has been redirected away from America's targeted killing of a top
   Iranian general. But foreign policy analysts say it is too early to
   tell if this is the beginning of a broader popular movement.

   "My expectation is that the demonstrations, however large they may be,
   are really not huge and are really not likely to metastasize a lot
   more," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings
   Institution.

   The demonstrations erupted Saturday in the capital and other cities
   after Iranian officials admitted the military shot down a civilian
   plane, a Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737, shortly after
   takeoff from Tehran that was bound for Kyiv on Jan. 8. All 176 people
   on board were killed. Most of the passengers were Iranian citizens or
   of Iranian descent. For three days, Iran insisted that mechanical
   problems likely caused the plane to crash before acknowledging the
   truth.

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