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Poll: Sinn Fein Would Easily Win Repeat Irish Election

Reuters

   DUBLIN - The pro-Irish unity Sinn Fein party would easily win a repeat
   Irish election if ongoing government talks fail, with an opinion poll
   on Saturday showing it has almost twice as much support as its two
   nearest rivals.

   The left-wing party's support jumped to 35%, ahead of Fianna Failat20%
   and acting Prime Minister Leo Varadkar's Fine Gaelat18% in a Sunday
   Times/Behaviour& Attitudes poll that may influence early talks between
   the two center-right rivals.

   Sinn Fein shocked the political establishment in an election earlier
   this month by securing more votes than any other party for the first
   time, almost doubling its vote to 24.5%, ahead of Fianna Failat22.2%
   and Fine Gaelat20.9%.

   But it has been frozen out of government talks by its two rivals, who
   refuse to contemplate sharing powerbecauseofpolicy differences and Sinn
   Fein's history as the political wing of the Irish Republican Army, the
   militant group that fought against British rule in Northern Ireland.
   The conflict,in which 3,600 people were killed, was resolved in a1998
   peace deal.

   Too few candidates

   Caught by surprise themselves, Sinn Fein ran too few candidates to
   emerge with the most seats--a mistake it will not make next time
   around. It has already begun a series of packed national rallies to
   shore up its support.

   Both Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail have 37 seats in the fractured 160-seat
   parliament, with Fine Gaelat35, meaning some sort of combination of two
   of the three largest partiesisrequired to form a government.

   Bruised by its election defeat, Fine Gael will reluctantly hold a
   "one-day policy exchange" with Fianna Fail next week as well as similar
   talks with the Green Party, whose 12 seats would be needed for the two
   historic rivals to reach a majority.

   If Ireland's two dominant parties cannot agree to lead the next
   government while also maintaining their steadfast opposition to
   governing with Sinn Fein, a second election would be the only way to
   break the deadlock.

   All sides predict talks will takeseveralweeks before such a choice has
   to be made.

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