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Afghan Truce Worry: One Militant Could Threaten Peace Process

Associated Press

   WASHINGTON - Hopes for ending America's longest war hinge on
   maintaining a weeklong fragile truce in Afghanistan that U.S. officials
   and experts agree will be difficult to assess and fraught with
   pitfalls.

   What if one militant with a suicide vest kills dozens in a Kabul
   market? Or, if a U.S. airstrike targeting Islamic State insurgents
   takes out Taliban members instead, does that destroy the deal?

   The agreement, which took effect Friday, calls for an end to attacks
   around the country, including roadside bombings, suicide attacks and
   rocket strikes bythe Taliban, Afghan and U.S. forces.

   But in a country that has been wracked by violence for more than 18
   years, determining if the agreement has been violated will be a tough
   task. And there areother groups and elements in the country that would
   love to see the deal fall through.

   "The reason this is a challenge is this is a very decentralized
   insurgency," said Seth Jones, a senior adviser at the Center for
   Strategic and International Studies and an Afghanistan expert. "There
   are going to be a lot of opportunities for any militia commander,
   element of the Taliban, the Haqqani network and other local forces who
   don't want to see a deal, to conduct violence."

   The Haqqani network is an insurgent group linked to the Taliban.

   Quick analysis is vital

   According to one defense official, any attack will be reviewed on a
   "case-by-case" basis. And much will depend on how well U.S. military
   and intelligence officials in Afghanistan can quickly determine two
   things:who was responsible for the attack andwhetherany blamecanbe
   traced to the Taliban, particularly the group's leaders who have been
   participating in thenegotiations.

   The Taliban issued a statement late Friday saying their military
   council hadinstructed commanders and governors to stop all attacks
   against foreign and Afghan forces. The council has a web of commanders
   and shadow governors across the country.

   U.S. officials have made it clear that "spoilers" -- such as militants
   associated with the Taliban who are not in favor of the peace talks --
   could launch an attack in a deliberate attempt to prevent them from
   happening.

   Jones said the U.S. military has tried to get a good layout of where
   all the insurgent groups are operating so it will be able to determine
   where any attack comes from and who likely was responsible. And U.S.
   military officials said they were prepared to make quick assessments.

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