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Philippine Move to Scrap US Military Deal Boosts China's Clout in Asia

Ralph Jennings

   TAIPEI - The Philippine president's proposed cancellation of a
   32-year-old military pact with the United States gives regional power
   China chances to strengthen its influence in Asia as U.S. military
   units would visit less often.

   Chinese naval ships, military aircraft and coast guard-escorted fishing
   vessels would find it easier to move around the disputed South China
   Sea, which lies west of the Philippines, analysts in Asia say. Naval
   ships also could more freely enter the Pacific Ocean east of the
   Philippines, Taiwan and Japan -- the first-island chain. Those waters
   are usually considered an American sphere of influence.

   China, a political rival of the United States since the Cold War,
   already gives billions in aid and investment to the fast-growing but
   impoverished Philippines. More may be on the way, consecrating Chinese
   influence there, scholars believe.

   "The Chinese are going to be happy about this, seeing a big hole poked
   in the first-island chain," said Fabrizio Bozzato, Taiwan Strategy
   Research Association fellow who specializes in Asia and the Pacific.
   "They may also seize the opportunity in the extra-military dimension in
   the sense that they will increase their financial commitment to the
   Philippines, start building some infrastructure."

   The Philippine foreign secretary sent notice to the United States
   February 11 that it would terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement with
   effect in 180 days. The U.S. defense sectary called the cancellation
   request "unfortunate."

   Philippines presidential office spokesman Salvador Panelo in Manila
   told a press briefing Thursday that "What is important to the president
   is, this is the time to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement to
   stress a point that...it is not advantageous to us because the more we
   rely on them, the more our position weakens and stagnate our defenses."

   The current agreement allows U.S. military aircraft and naval vessels
   free entry into the Philippines and eases immigration rules for
   American military personnel. The two sides will still uphold a Mutual
   Defense Treaty that was signed in 1951, after the United States ended
   colonization of the Asian archipelago.

   Duterte's cancellation falls in line with statements since he took
   office in 2016 about easing reliance on the United States and building
   ties with China. Most recently, the U.S. government revoked the visa of
   Philippine senator who as former police chief helped lead Duterte's
   deadly anti-drug campaign.

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