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Can Fatal Moments Seal an Autocrat's Fate?

Jamie Dettmer

   Autocrats fall when people lose their fear -- and that moment can be
   signaled dramatically by a simple jeer. As it was last week when
   Europe's so-called "last dictator," Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko, was
   booed during a speech at a Minsk factory by workers who chanted for him
   to step down.

   "Until you kill me, there will be no other elections," Lukashenko told
   the sullen crowd. "Shoot yourself," one emboldened worker shouted at
   him as he left the stage -- a brazen statement no one would have dared
   utter to his face before the current turmoil rocking Belarus.

   The visit was meant to have demonstrated Lukashenko's strong support
   from a core group of Belarusians, say analysts. The factory, which
   makes tractor wheels, is one of the large Soviet-like state-run
   industrial plants that have in the past been pro-Lukashenko
   strongholds. For veteran observers and journalists, the debacle at the
   factory was reminiscent of the fall 32 years ago of another European
   autocrat -- Nicolae CeauÈescu, the longtime Communist leader of
   Romania.

   He similarly misjudged the mood of a crowd -- as well as the tide of
   events. In 1984, CeauÈescu had easily sidestepped a planned coup
   d'état, dispatching nimbly a key military unit to help with the maize
   harvest. But in December 1989, history caught him up with him as he
   tried to whip up support against growing anti-government protesters who
   had been undeterred by a violent state reaction.

   Eight minutes into a speech before a mass meeting in Bucharest's
   Revolution Square, during which he labeled protesters as "fascist
   agitators who want to destroy socialism," he was booed, triggering a
   bewildered frown from the autocrat and an impotent wave of his hand.
   Power seemed to drain away from the ConducÄtor, or leader.

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