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China Steps up Patrols in Disputed Sea; Here's What Malaysia and Vietnam Will
do

Ralph Jennings

   TAIPEI, TAIWAN - Malaysia and Vietnam, militarily weaker than China,
   are expected to protest through diplomatic channels over a Chinese
   survey ship fleet that entered disputed waters this month, inviting a
   long but nonviolent standoff.

   Both Southeast Asian countries are monitoring movement of the Chinese
   HaiyangDizhi8 fleet, which multiple news reports say passed through
   disputed tracts of the South China Sea last week. The same vessel spent
   four months in 2019 in an oil-rich tract of the sea claimed by Vietnam
   and blocked Vietnamese crews from exploring for oil underwater.

   This time both states will probably protest diplomatically to China but
   do little more, analysts believe. They lack China's overall military
   might. Malaysia's prime minister, in office for less than two months,
   also has little foreign policy experience.

   Against that muted response, China could keep its survey fleet in
   disputed waters and stymie the energy drilling efforts of Malaysia and
   Vietnam, experts believe.

   "It's just the status quo," said Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the
   University of New South Wales in Australia.

   "China is doing its survey work and Malaysia's searching for oil, and
   occasionally they have harassment and close calls -- diplomatic
   pressure behind the scenes -- and then at some point weather changes or
   what not and China, if Malaysia doesn't cave in, takes the vessel and
   brings it back," Thayer said.

   This sort of friction surfaces regularly in the broader South China Sea
   dispute.

   China, Malaysia, Vietnam and three other governments claim all or part
   of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer waterway. They prize it for
   fisheries, shipping lanes, oil and natural gas. China has grown more
   powerful than the other claimants over the past 10 years by landfilling
   tiny islets for military installations.

   Claimant states have made little headway diplomatically in settling
   disputes. The U.S. Navy periodically passes ships through the South
   China Sea as a warning to Beijing.

   New PM in Malaysia

   Malaysia's Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, a former interior minister
   appointed in March, will probably take a low-key approach to Chinese
   presence in the sea, analysts say. His predecessor Mahathir Mohamad had
   publicly questioned the basis for China's claims and warned against use
   of any warships.

   "This new prime minister is no Mahathir," said OhEiSun, senior fellow
   with the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. "He is not well
   known for taking a harsh diplomatic or political stand."

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