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Southeast Asian Leaders Seen Siding with China's Despite Maritime Dispute

Ralph Jennings

   TAIPEI, TAIWAN - Ten Southeast Asian heads of state will hold their
   landmark annual meeting next week, and four are enmeshed in a maritime
   sovereignty dispute with their more powerful neighbor China. But the
   event is widely expected to produce a statement that avoids condemning
   Beijing.

   That's because those leaders, even in Vietnam and the Philippines where
   frustration is running high this year after a series of incidents, hope
   China will eventually sign a code of conduct aimed at preventing
   maritime accidents and because some of the 10 countries need Chinese
   economic aid, scholars say.

   Heads of state from the 10 countries, who will convene October
   31-November 4 at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
   summit, will probably issue a statement that avoids fingering China
   directly and instead plays up common values, the experts believe.

   "The summit itself is very cautious," said Carl Thayer, emeritus
   professor of politics at The University of New South Wales in
   Australia. "I expect a boilerplate, 'freedom of navigation, settle
   matters peacefully.'"

   Spirit of cooperation despite hostilities

   ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam dispute
   with Beijing's Communist leadership parts of the South China Sea, a 3.5
   million-square-kilometer waterway that's rich in fisheries and fossil
   fuel reserves. China has taken a lead over the past decade by
   landfilling small islets for military use.

   A Chinese survey ship spent months this year in waters where Vietnam is
   looking fuel under the sea. Chinese coast guard ships patrolled
   Malaysian-claimed waters for 258 days over the year ending in
   September, one think tank found. In early 2019, hundreds of Chinese
   boats surrounded disputed islets occupied by the Philippines.

   But ASEAN's 2019 chair Thailand hopes to "disarm" China, Thayer said.
   Thai officials may have worked behind the scenes to pick friendly
   wording for any summit statements next week, he said.

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