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IS Media Aims to Build Momentum Behind Newly Appointed Caliph

Jeff Seldin

   The Islamic State terror group appears to be trying to show that
   momentum is building in support of its new leader, distributing
   photographs of fighters from various provinces and affiliates swearing
   allegiance.

   Since Saturday, IS media officials have posted a series of photos
   showing fighters from five of the group's affiliates gathering to
   pledge bay'ah (allegiance) to Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.

     BREAKING: [1]#ISIS [2]#Sinai releases photos showing fighters
     pledging bayah/allegiance to new ISIS leader Abu Ibrahim al
     [3]#Hashimi al [4]#Qurashi
     Via [5]@siteintelgroup [6]pic.twitter.com/xJGVPHa315
     -- Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) [7]November 2, 2019

   The first of the pledges came from IS-Sinai of IS distributing three
   photographs of about 25 masked fighters gathering in a sparsely wooded
   area in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, with guns raised.

   That release was followed hours later by a series of photographs
   showing a group of about seven or eight masked fighters, allegedly from
   Bangladesh, pledging their loyalty.

   IS media officials have since distributed more photographs, similarly
   showing masked gunmen from Yemen and Pakistan pledging allegiance.

     Photos from [8]#ISIS of fighters in [9]#Somalia, [10]#Pakistan,
     [11]#Bangladesh pledging bay'ah to al [12]#Qurashi, courtesy of
     [13]@JihadoScope [14]pic.twitter.com/FOAaNJ72Es
     -- Jeff Seldin (@jseldin) [15]November 4, 2019

   "Some of this is, we're seeing some of the weaker affiliates rapidly
   realign with Islamic State," said Katherine Zimmerman, project manager
   with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project.

   "Four of the five are actually pretty small affiliates -- Yemen,
   Somalia, Bangladesh and Pakistan -- that haven't really had a massive
   presence on the ground and don't seem to have the sort of global pull
   that other ISIS branches have had," she added.

   The exception is IS-Sinai, the first of the terror group's affiliates
   to give bay'ah to Qurashi.

   Western intelligence officials have long pointed to IS-Sinai as one of
   the terror group's most dangerous affiliates, suspected of planting a
   bomb aboard a Russian airliner in 2015, killing 244 people.

   Unlike IS affiliates in Bangladesh, Yemen and Somalia, which each have
   an estimated few hundred followers, IS-Sinai is thought to have
   anywhere from 500 to 1,200 fighters in cells scattered across the Sinai
   Peninsula and Egypt's Nile Valley.

   Still, U.S. officials believe IS-Sinai has been dependent on the core
   group in Syria and Iraq for some of its funding, which would give it a
   reason to quickly back the new leader.

   Officials and analysts say it may be more telling if or when fighters
   with IS-Khorasan in Afghanistan or IS-West Africa, with an estimated
   3,500 fighters, come forward to pledge their loyalty to Qurashi.

   "Those are two of the strongest Islamic State branches, and we've yet
   to hear from them," Zimmerman said.

   'Risk of defections'

   While there has been a sense in the intelligence community that most of
   the IS affiliates will eventually fall in line behind Qurashi, some may
   be trying to feel out the terror group's core leadership to see if
   financial and logistical support will continue.

References

   1. https://twitter.com/hashtag/ISIS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   2. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sinai?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   3. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hashimi?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   4. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Qurashi?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   5. https://twitter.com/siteintelgroup?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   6. https://t.co/xJGVPHa315
   7. https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1190659541983215616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   8. https://twitter.com/hashtag/ISIS?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
   9. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Somalia?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  10. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pakistan?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  11. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bangladesh?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  12. https://twitter.com/hashtag/Qurashi?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  13. https://twitter.com/JihadoScope?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
  14. https://t.co/FOAaNJ72Es
  15. https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1191378413535289346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

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