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In Essence, Guatemalan Presidential ElectionIs an Unpopularity Contest

Reuters

   GUATEMALA CITY -- ConservativeAlejandroGiammatteicould prevail in
   Guatemala'spresidential runoff Sunday if misgivings about his
   opponentamong urban voters outweigh her support in the Central
   Americannation's poor Mayan highlands.

   Whoever takes office in January will face a testyrelationship with U.S.
   President Donald Trump, who last monthstrong-armedthe outgoing
   government into signing an agreementthat will turn Guatemala into a
   buffer zone for U.S.-boundmigrants.

   Giammatteiand his center-left rival, former first ladySandra Torres,
   both criticized the deal, but Trump's threatsofeconomic sanctions are
   unlikely to leave either ofthem muchroom to maneuver if the next
   administration does not honor it.

   Potentially complicating such tough decisions, neithercandidate is
   hugely popular.

   Torres, 63, has high negative ratings in the denselypopulated urban
   areas, in part because of her connections to aninvestigation being
   conducted into alleged illicit electoralfinancing in a previous
   campaign.

   Her base is in rural areas such as the highlands where sheis remembered
   for social programs during her former husband'sadministration.

   Turnout is expected to be low and the winner isunlikely to command a
   strong mandate, especially afterelectoralauthorities excluded other
   popular candidates from the firstround in June -- conservative
   candidateZuryRios on the groundthat close relatives of coup leaders are
   barred from top office,and anti-corruption crusader Thelma Aldana
   because of an arrestwarrant against her in a corruption case that
   supporters saidwas trumped up.

   Sliver of the vote

   A former prisons director who himself spent a few monthsbehind
   bars,Giammatteigot barely 14 percent of the vote in thefirst round with
   a tough-on-crime message, and hisVamospartywon just a smattering of
   seats in Congress.

   Giammattei'sprison time was linked to an investigation into
   extrajudicial killings, but he was later cleared.

   Torres' National Unity of Hope had the strongest showing inCongress but
   also fell well short of a majority.

   A CID-Gallup opinion poll of 1,216 voters in conducted July 29-August 5
   gaveGiammatteithe advantage goinginto the runoff, with 39.5% support,
   compared with 32.4% forTorres. The poll has a margin of error of 2.8
   points.

   Another survey by polling firmTendenciasGlobalesin Julygave Torres a
   lead of 10 percentage points over her rival.

   "There's a lot of apathy, mistrust and disinterest amongthepopulation,"
   said Jose Carlos Sanabria, a political analyst atthe ASIES think tank
   in Guatemala City. "It's quite hard toanticipate a winner."

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