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Korea Talks Welcomed, But With Skepticism

by William Gallo

   The United States and United Nations are welcoming an agreement meant
   to ease tensions between North and South Korea, but some analysts are
   warning the North may be using the talks to buy more time to develop
   its nuclear weapons program.

   During their first formal discussions in more than two years, Pyongyang
   and Seoul on Tuesday agreed to hold further military talks, and North
   Korea agreed to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics being held
   next month in South Korea.

   The agreements, reached at Panmunjom, which lies between the two
   Koreas, represent a possible reduction in what have been severely
   escalating tensions over North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile
   program.

   "The United States welcomes the January 9 meeting between the Republic
   of Korea and North Korea aimed at ensuring a safe, secure, and
   successful Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang," said U.S. State Department
   statement on Tuesday.

   "The United States remains in close consultations with ROK (South
   Korean) officials, who will ensure North Korean participation in the
   Winter Olympics does not violate the sanctions imposed by the U.N.
   Security Council over North Korea's unlawful nuclear and ballistic
   missile programs," it continued.

   The U.S. will send a "high-level delegation" to the Olympic games,
   according to a White House National Security Council spokesperson.
   "North Korean participation is an opportunity for the regime to see the
   value of ending its international isolation by denuclearizing," the
   spokesperson said.

   During the talks, North and South Korea also agreed to restore a
   military hotline communication channel, which had been suspended for
   nearly two years.

   The reestablishment of such channels is "critical to lowering the risk
   of miscalculation or misunderstanding and to reduce tensions in the
   region," according to a statement from Stephane Dujarric, a spokesman
   for U.N. Secretary General António Guterres.

   Guterres "hopes such engagement and efforts will contribute to the
   resumption of sincere dialogue leading to sustainable peace and
   denuclearization on the Korean peninsula," the statement read.

   But it is not clear whether the talks will lead to a meaningful change
   in relations with the North. President Donald Trump has at various
   times called talks with Pyongyang useless and threatened to "totally
   destroy" North Korea if it does not heed U.S. warnings.

   "North Korea has a foul intent here," said Harry Kazianis, director of
   defense studies at the Center for the National Interest in Washington.
   "What they're essentially trying to do is essentially buy time. They're
   very very close to actually developing a nuclear weapon that can hit
   the United States mainland. The challenge is, they're probably about a
   few months away."

   North Korea last year carried out its sixth and most powerful nuclear
   test. It has also regularly tested ballistic missiles. But they are
   thought to still be perfecting the technology needed to protect an
   intercontinental ballistic missile upon reentry into the environment.

   "For the North Koreans, offering peace talks, letting them string on
   for a couple of months, it's basically the perfect opportunity to get
   the time they need to do it," said Kazianis.

   John Bolton, the hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations,
   also hinted at a similar strategy, saying the talks may effectively
   amount to a "propaganda stunt" by the North.

   Many Trump administration officials have said they are determined to
   resolve the standoff via diplomacy or economic sanctions, but some
   recent media reports have suggested U.S. officials are also discussing
   limited strikes on the North.

   Abraham Denmark, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
   East Asia, on Tuesday warned against such a so-called "bloody nose"
   strike, saying it risks igniting a full-blown war on the Korean
   peninsula.

   "It would have no guarantee of successfully destroying North Korean
   capabilities, and [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un] may well feel
   compelled to respond to even a limited attack," Denmark said in an
   opinion piece in Foreign Affairs.

   "A war with North Korea would likely be more devastating than any
   conflict the United States has experienced since World War II, if
   ever," he said.

   (Peter Heinlein contributed to this story.)