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            Expected Low Turnout Could Impact Nevada Caucus Results

   by Katherine Gypson

   A small number of Nevada voters will have a big impact on the
   presidential race Tuesday when they head to caucus sites statewide to
   decide on a narrowing field of Republican candidates.

   Billionaire Donald Trump heads into the caucus with a lead in the
   latest polls following primary wins in New Hampshire and South
   Carolina. Trump has about 40 percent support, while his opponents,
   Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, are fighting for second place with
   about 20 percent. Ohio Governor John Kasich and retired surgeon Ben
   Carson are polling in the single digits and are not considered major
   challengers in this caucus.

   Nevada is an unusual contest for a number of reasons. State
   caucus-goers are historically difficult to poll, since many voters live
   in rural areas outside the three main cities of Reno, Las Vegas and
   Henderson. This is also only the third time Republicans have held a
   caucus in the state and the unfamiliar format may have an impact on
   turnout. Only 1.9 percent of registered Republican voters turned up in
   2012, the last presidential election year.

   "People aren't used to them like they are in Iowa, where it's a
   long-running tradition," said Kevin Banda, assistant professor of
   political science at the University of Nevada, Reno. He said campaigns
   have to expend effort educating voters on a potentially time-consuming
   and confusing process. Donald Trump has chosen not to invest in a
   significant ground presence in the state -- a decision that Banda said
   is likely to hurt more in a caucus state than in a standard primary.

   All three lead contenders in the Republican field, however, have
   personal attributes that make them attractive to Nevada voters, said
   Matt Dallek, an assistant professor at The George Washington
   University's Graduate School of Political Management.

   "The rural areas have large swaths of evangelical voters which could
   favor Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio spent some time living in Nevada in his
   youth, so he has some ties to the state. Trump obviously has some ties
   to Las Vegas and the world of casinos," Dallek said.

   The establishment candidate

   One-time favorite Jeb Bush dropped out of the race following a poor
   showing in the South Carolina primary, while Kasich and Carson have
   continued on. The diminished field of candidates potentially benefits
   Rubio, who has received a number of party endorsements in the days
   leading up to the caucus, including the backing of former Republican
   presidential candidate Bob Dole.

   Nevada will be a significant test of Rubio's ability to increase his
   poll numbers to rival Trump. A gain of six to eight percent "puts him
   within striking range of Trump's 30, 33 percent of the vote that he's
   been receiving," Dallek said.

   For Cruz, Nevada presents a way to reset the conversation after a
   difficult week in which he lost the evangelical vote to Trump in South
   Carolina and faced accusations that his campaign plays dirty tricks on
   his opponents. Cruz had to fire the public face of his campaign,
   communications manager Rick Tyler, for social media posts falsely
   alleging Rubio mocked the Bible.

   Cruz doubled down on his approach to illegal immigration Monday when he
   said he would send federal agents to arrest undocumented immigrants.

   "It's an attempt to show that he is tougher than Trump and more willing
   to crack down," Dallek said.

   Nevada is a multi-ethnic state, but the historically low turnout of
   caucus goers tends to skew heavily for white voters. Despite the
   predicted low turnout, Dallek says Tuesday's results will have
   far-reaching implications if Trump ends up as the winner.

   "The question becomes, where can he be stopped? Where is he deprived of
   a victory -- or multiple victories -- and who will do the stopping?"

   The next Republican presidential contest is the crucial "Super Tuesday"
   vote on March 1, when more than a dozen states hold primaries awarding
   the bulk of delegates needed for the nomination.
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   ada-caucus-results/3203761.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/expected-low-turnout-could-impact-nevada-caucus-results/3203761.html