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               Turkey's Election Appears to be All about Erdogan

   by Jamie Dettmer

   President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan's name won't appear on any of the ballot
   papers Turks will be presented with on November 1 but no one here
   doubts that the parliamentary elections -- the second this year -- will
   be dominated by Turkey's controversial leader and his often-stated aim
   to grab more power for himself.

   Opposition politicians claim that ErdoÄan's ego has dragged the country
   into yet another election -- they say he purposely set out to sabotage
   the formation of a coalition government in June following voters
   delivering the country's first hung parliament since 2002, making a
   snap election necessary.

   It is a charge his aides deny, but they privately acknowledge ErdoÄan
   frowned on the very idea of cooperating with a coalition government.

   Opposition parties are already casting the poll as a crucial test of
   the country's democracy. As far as ErdoÄan's critics see it, the
   November election will be about how much power the president should be
   able to wield in the future.

   That was also the main issue in the June election -- one that
   undermined Mr. ErdoÄan's stated ambition to alter the constitution and
   turn Turkey's ceremonial presidency into the real seat of authority.
   The failure of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to gain a
   majority of seats in June, upset the Turkish leader's aim to recast
   Turkey's political system.

   Another shot at constitutional changes

   The June election result was widely seen as a body blow to the Turkish
   president and there were forecasts that his days were numbered. But Mr.
   ErdoÄan has continued to show whose boss, including by chairing cabinet
   meetings. "ErdoÄan expects that this time around the Justice and
   Development Party will attain single-handed power in Parliament,"
   argues commentator Mumtazer Turkone.

   Or at least he is gambling the party can perform better.

   To get to this point -- to engineer a quick follow-up election, the
   first snap poll to be called in Turkey since 1923 -- Mr. ErdoÄan
   blurred the line between executive and presidential authority to ensure
   coalition talks failed, allege his opponents. Even when it came to
   announcing a re-run election, they point out, it was ErdoÄan who
   announced it and not his Prime Minister, Ahmet DavutoÄlu, who as head
   of government should have done so.

   "ErdoÄan never fully embraced the result of the June 7 election,"
   Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) told
   lawmakers Tuesday. Speaking at a party meeting in Ankara, he added: "He
   explicitly denigrated all coalition efforts and threw a spanner in the
   works."

   Seeking a strong presidential system

   Far from trying to shift the focus of the election, Mr. ErdoÄan looks
   set for the Islamist-based AKP to run a campaign shaped around him.
   Speaking last week just before he announced the November election, he
   argued that Turkey's government has already changed into a de facto
   presidential system and he called for a constitutional framework to
   formalize this change.

   "Whether it is accepted or not, Turkey's system of government has
   changed. What needs to be done now is to clarify and confirm the legal
   framework of this de facto situation with a new constitution," he said.
   He argues that a presidential system would be better equipped to cope
   with the challenges Turkey faces -- from the civil war raging in
   neighboring Syria to the plunging lira and a worsening economy.

   With a backdrop of rising political violence and amid the resumption by
   Kurdish separatists of their insurgency following Turkish airstrikes on
   their bases, the political stakes are even higher this time round than
   in June.

   Polls results in doubt

   Whether the AKP can claw back a majority in November remains uncertain.
   Marc Pierini, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, a think tank, argues
   the AKP has a chance of winning back a simple majority but is unlikely
   to be able to secure the three-fifths of seats it would need to change
   the constitution.

   New opinion surveys seem to bear out the prediction that the AKP will
   fall short of a huge majority. A survey by the Sonar polling company
   earlier this month showed support for the AKP rising by 2 percent, but
   it would have to garner a bigger swing than that to steamroll later
   constitutional changes.

   Since 1954 Turkish governments that have called for early elections
   have lost in the polls. According to analysts, Mr. ErdoÄan is banking
   on the instability and political violence playing to his advantage by
   encouraging voters to turn back to the AKP in droves and embracing a
   forthright leader.

   And, Mr. ErdoÄan has been upping his angry rhetoric against all he
   deems as undermining Turkey -- from domestic to external foes.

   Opposition parties hope to engineer an electoral backlash by persuading
   Turks that the Turkish president himself has been stoking violence to
   scare the voters into supporting him. To his critics, Mr. ErdoÄan
   responded this week that he knows the scope of his authority and warned
   he would "use my powers all the way."
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References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/turkey-election-appears-to-be-all-about-erdogan/2933026.html