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               Egypt Unrest Limits Role in Fighting Islamic State

   by Mohamed Elshinnawi

   During a recent stop in Cairo, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said
   Egypt has a "key role" to play in the effort to "degrade and defeat"
   Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria.

   But that may be difficult, analysts say.

   The Egyptian government reportedly assured Kerry of its support, but
   has not yet committed to any specific role as the U.S. assembles a
   coalition for the fight against IS extremists.

   Egypt's participation would be limited at best, according to analysts,
   given the country's own ongoing battle against the Muslim Brotherhood
   and its battered economy.

   Ever since last year, when the army toppled Mohammed Morsi, Egypt's
   first democratically elected civilian president, and banned the
   Brotherhood, security has deteriorated

   The exclusion of Islamists from the political scene has driven some to
   join a low-level insurgency against the military government.  At the
   time, other Egytian militant groups are believed to be responsible for
   terrorist acts in Sinai.

   "Instability is complicating the economic challenges," said Ahmed
   Galal, a former Egyptian finance minister told VOA  and points to an
   urgent need to pair economic reforms with political reforms.

   "The economy is now operating far below its potential because the
   tourists are not coming, foreign direct investment is distant and even
   domestic investors are reluctant to invest simply because of the
   insecurity and the political uncertainty," he said.

   Despite a new constitution, a new president and steps towards electing
   a new parliament,Galah said "Egypt needs a friendly business
   environment, stability and predictability to attract investment and
   create jobs."

   Call for reforms

   Analysts believe that without real reforms in Egypt, unrest could
   derail any attempt to provide better economic opportunities to improve
   the daily lives of Egyptians.

   "The current government is not making progress towards democracy and
   inclusion," said Samer Shehata, an associate professor of Middle
   Eastern Politics at the University of Oklahoma.

   "It is instead entrenching itself in an authoritarian manner as a
   result of repressive protest laws, banning political activities in
   college campuses, jailing not only the Islamists but also youth
   activists," he said.

   Shehata said that there needs to be massive political reforms that
   include the state institutions, especially the security apparatus, the
   military and the judiciary as well as some sort of national
   reconciliation.

   But Mohamed Salmawy, a former spokesperson for the constitution
   drafting committee and the president of Writers Union in Egypt, is more
   optimistic.

   "The democratic measures that our new constitution provides have to be
   enacted by the upcoming new parliament and that will create a lot of
   freedoms," Salmawy said. "The power is shared between the president and
   the parliament so the president will no longer have unquestionable
   power."

   Parliamentary elections are expected to take place in Egypt early next
   year, but the distribution of seats according to the new electoral law
   may spark controversy.

   "If 120 seats are contested by party lists, and 420 seats are contested
   by individual candidates, the emerging parliament will have very
   limited party representation which will result in the absence of an
   effective majority," said Hala Shukrallah, president of opposition
   Al-Dostour Party.

   But some experts are not optimistic about the role of the new
   parliament.

   "While it might not be a rubber stamp, it will not be able to put up a
   serious opposition and perform checks and balances role to the
   president who is a field marshal with the full force of the military
   and security apparatus behind him," Shehata said.

   Others are more upbeat, saying popular sentiments will prevent any
   returns to the practices of the past.

   "The Egyptian people who took to the streets and changed two presidents
   in three years will not accept a parliament that doesn't perform its
   function properly," Salmawy said.

   Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi made clear he intends to rule
   as a strong leader when he said "I will not allow the creation of a
   parallel leadership to be in conflict with the state powers and
   prestige, Egypt has only one leadership."

   Breaking old cycles

   Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York
   said that if the military and the Muslim Brotherhood could look beyond
   factional interests and focus more broadly at a sustainable political
   process, the mechanics of transitional justice would come faster.

   "The current government does not face any serious rivalries, so it
   should bring institutions of the state back under control especially
   the judiciary and the ministry of interior, which are working now with
   very little oversight," Hanna said.

   The only way for Egypt to break the vicious cycle of instability is if
   the government opens the political process and adopts a more inclusive
   approach, he said.

   "It is clear that the current government is not interested in an open
   political system of checks and balances or distribution of power. The
   scope of current repression is not reflective of real threats that this
   government faces," Hanna said.

   At the 27th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council this
   month, the European Union expressed its concern towards the human
   rights situation in Egypt, calling for "democratic, transparent and
   accountable institutions."  The Egyptian foreign rejected the EU
   statement considered it a "negative message."

   Still, Gerald Feierstein, the U.S. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
   of State for Near East Affairs, continues to press Egypt to open up the
   political space and allow peaceful dissent.

   "A stronger Egypt is an Egypt that embraces political pluralism and the
   ability of people to speak out," he said. "We think that Egypt can't be
   strong unless it provides this kind of opportunity."
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/egypt-limited-role-in-islamic-state-c
   oalition/2455815.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/egypt-limited-role-in-islamic-state-coalition/2455815.html