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              Steady Progress Needed in Iran Nuke Talks: Analysts

   Analysts say fresh talks on Iran`s nuclear program need to make steady
   progress in order to convince Washington that Tehran is serious about
   making concessions.
   The so-called P5+1 talks that got underway Tuesday in Geneva are
   bolstered by new optimism, thanks in part to a series of recent
   conciliatory gestures by Iran`s new president, Hasan Rouhani.
   Although it is not clear what Iran is prepared to offer, Mr. Rouhani
   and his administration have suggested they are willing to make concrete
   concessions to prove to the West that Iran`s nuclear program is
   peaceful.
   Barry Pavel, the director of the Atlantic Council`s Brent Scowcroft
   Center on International Security, says the talks represent a "very
   important opportunity." But he tells VOA he does not expect a
   breakthrough at the outset.
   "I don`t think you`re going to get a deal in the first session. On the
   other hand, I wouldn`t let it drag on too long. Because the more it
   drags on, the more it smells like previous Iranian and North Korean
   tactics."
   Pavel, an ex-defense policy adviser to U.S. President Barack Obama,
   says the White House should not ignore the example set by North Korea,
   which has used talks with the West to buy more time to develop nuclear
   weapons.
   "The North Koreans did a very good job of playing for time, bargaining,
   ultimately coming to a deal, breaking the deal, and continuing all the
   time to develop nuclear weapons. And they`re assessed to have six to 12
   (nuclear weapons) now."
   If the U.S. and Iran do not reach a deal after three months, in Pavel`s
   estimation, then it will be clear that Tehran is not serious and that
   it is continuing to play for time.
   Mark Fitzpatrick, the director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
   Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, is
   reluctant to put a deadline on the talks. But he warns the U.S. and
   Israel may run out of patience if there is no progress by next summer.
   "I think there`s probably a window of opportunity that might be six
   months to one year during which if Iran doesn`t agree to restrict its
   program, I think there`ll be more talk of a military option."
   Fitzpatrick, who has followed both the North Korean and Iranian nuclear
   programs very closely, argues there is little need to be worried that
   Tehran will follow Pyongyang`s lead in using the talks as a stalling
   tactic.
   "They`re doing that anyway. With or without negotiations, their
   centrifuges are spinning and they`re increasing their capability. So
   it`s far better to have negotiations to at least try to put limits on
   this program."
   And Fitzpatrick says putting limits on the Iranian nuclear program is
   as much as can be expected. He says there is no realistic scenario in
   which Tehran agrees to dismantle its nuclear facilities, as Libya did
   following Western pressure in the 2000s.
   "Yes, of course, the Libya option would be ideal, a process of
   negotiations with a leader who doesn`t have to have anybody within his
   country raising objections. But (late Libyan leader Moammar) Gadhafi
   was a dictator, he could agree to deal, and he agreed to dismantle his
   program."
   The situation in Iran is understood to be more complex, with President
   Rouhani only able to offer that which is approved by Iran`s supreme
   leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr. Rouhani insists he has been given
   full authority by the supreme leader to resolve the nuclear issue.
   U.S. officials say they are encouraged by Tehran`s more moderate tone,
   but that they are waiting for concrete actions, and not just words,
   before they will begin to roll back the economic sanctions that have
   crippled Iran`s economy.
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   [1]http://www.voanews.com/content/steady-progress-needed-in-iran-nuke-t
   alks-analysts/1769786.html

References

   1. http://www.voanews.com/content/steady-progress-needed-in-iran-nuke-talks-analysts/1769786.html