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                   Study Maps Areas of Stagnating Crop Yields

   by Steve Baragona

   Experts say the demand for food crops is growing, but the world's
   harvests are not keeping pace.  A new study pinpoints exactly where
   crop yields are falling behind.  The authors describe it as "actionable
   intelligence" on where more investment is needed to help secure the
   world's food supply.
   The United Nations says there will be 2 billion more people to feed by
   2050.  And people are becoming richer and eating more meat, which takes
   more grain to produce.  And demand for plant-derived biofuels is
   growing.
   Decline in food crops
   But while the need for food crops in increasing, the new [1]study found
   productivity has flattened out or declined on 43 percent of the world's
   rice-growing land, and 44 percent of its wheat fields.  Lead author
   Deepak Ray at the University of Minnesota says that raises a serious
   question. "If huge tracts of rice and wheat areas are not improving,
   then where are we actually heading in terms of reaching that target of
   feeding 9 billion humans?" he asked.
   Overall, Ray says, the new study found yields were stagnant or fell on
   about a quarter to two-fifths of the world's farmland growing rice,
   wheat, corn or soybeans.  Those four crops account for about two-thirds
   of the world's caloric consumption.
   Other studies have warned that crop yield increases are not keeping up
   with demand.  But Ray says they have been too vague to act on. "When
   you say, for instance, wheat yields are not increasing anymore in
   India, it doesn't really say much.  It doesn't say where it is not
   increasing," he explained.
   Global research
   So Ray's team pored over decades of official figures and detailed
   statistics.  Their goal: "To figure out what is happening in each
   county, for example in the United States, or in each municipio in
   Brazil or in each district in India," Ray said. "So you keep doing it
   and it takes a long, long time, obviously."
   It took three years, in fact.  But in the end, the group produced
   detailed maps that can be used to zero in on where yields are
   increasing and where they are not.
   But Ray says this is really just the beginning. "This data set can be
   used to answer many other questions like, `Where are we going from
   here?' What we have only shown is where we are right now," he stated.
   Next, Ray says, researchers need to figure out why yields are not
   improving in these areas and what needs to change.
   Kostas Stamoulis heads the Agricultural Development Economics Division
   at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.
   Study recommendations
   He says the study identifies areas where improvements would have a
   substantial impact. "There is significant untapped potential to
   increase yields to accommodate future demand.  This is good news,"
   Stamoulis said. "Let's put it that way."
   And Stamoulis says in many cases tapping that potential is a matter of
   applying what is already known. "The technologies exist.  We have to
   provide farmers with market access, infrastructure, risk management
   practices that will incentivize them to use those technologies," he
   added.
   And as the demand for food crops grows, the time to invest in farmers,
   Stamoulis says, is now.
     __________________________________________________________________

   [2]http://www.voanews.com/content/study-maps-areas-of-stagnating-crop-y
   ields/1568479.html

References

   1. http://www1.umn.edu/news/news-releases/2012/UR_CONTENT_424268.html
   2. http://www.voanews.com/content/study-maps-areas-of-stagnating-crop-yields/1568479.html