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Nigerian Analyst Sees Close Contest in Ruling Party Primary

   University of Abuja professor Kabiru Mato says both President Goodluck
   Jonathan and former VP Atiku Abubakar have certain advantages

   James Butty 11 January 2011
   Goodluck Jonathan (left), Atiku Abubakar

Photo: ASSOCIATED PRESS

   Goodluck Jonathan (left), Atiku Abubakar

   A  Nigerian  political analyst has told VOA the possibility exists for
   either  Nigerian  President Goodluck Jonathan or former Vice President
   Atiku  Abubakar  to  be  chosen  as the presidential candidate for the
   ruling Peopleâs Democratic Party (PDP).

   Tuesday,  the  PDP certified three candidates for Thursday's scheduled
   presidential primary.

   President Goodluck Jonathan will compete against former vice president
   Atiku  Abubakar  and  veteran  politician Sarah Jibril to be the PDPâs
   candidate in the scheduled April election.

   Professor  Kabiru  Mato,  chair of the political science department at
   the University of Abuja, said the PDP made a wise decision in choosing
   President  Jonathan  and  former Vice President Abubakar to compete in
   the primary.

   âGiven  the nationâs political temperature, it would be unwise for the
   party  to  disqualify  any  of its contenders, especially the two most
   serious  ones,  among them the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan,
   and his challenger, Atiku Abubakar. So, I think itâs not an issue that
   came to anybody in Nigeria as a surprise,â he said.

   Mato  said both candidates stand a chance of being chosen as the PDPâs
   flag bearer during Thursdayâs primary.

   âEach  of  the two major candidates, in my view, has ample opportunity
   and  chance  of  striking a major political victory, especially in the
   last  hours  leading up to the primary. So, the pendulum can go either
   way.  I think it would depend to a great extent on what advantages the
   two major candidates would take in the minutes and hours leading up to
   the party primary,â Mato said.

   He  said  both  President  Jonathan and former vice president Abubakar
   enjoy certain advantages.

   âThe  first  thing  is  that  a  candidate  wins  by enjoying a simple
   majority  of votes. Basically, there are three aspirants, but only two
   of  them  are serious aspirants. What I think is very essential is the
   factor  of  incumbency,  which I think President Jonathan might enjoy.
   But,   also,   another  factor  is  regional  sympathy  and  political
   sophistication,  which  Abubakar possesses. But certainly, each of the
   candidates  has  almost similar chances of taking the partyâs ticket,â
   Mato said.

   The PDP has a custom of rotating power between the mostly Muslim north
   and  largely Christian south every two terms. Mr. Jonathan is from the
   south, but he became president when Umaru Yar'adua, a northern Muslim,
   died in office.

   Some  in  Nigeria  had  protested  Mr.  Jonathan's  candidacy. But, on
   Monday, a Nigerian court threw out a suit brought by three PDP members
   to try to stop Mr. Jonathan from running.

   Mato  said  the  rotating  presidency  issue  could  sway  a number of
   northern votes in favor of Abubakar.

   âThatâs one of the factors that, in my view, could sway quite a number
   of  northern  votes  toward  Abubakar  because, truly, the question of
   rotation  and  zoning of political offices, especially the presidency,
   has always been an integral part of the PDP constitution,â Mato said.

   Mato  said he hopes the PDP convention committee that would be running
   Thursdayâs presidential primary election would be transparent.

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