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Analyst Sees Continued Deadlock between Somali Rebels and Government as
âcatastrophicâ

   Douglas Mpuga  February 03, 2011

   It  has  been  twenty years since Somalia had a functioning government
   that controlled the whole country.  The ouster of Mohammed Said Barre
   in  1991  led  to a descent into chaos and the rule of clan warlords.Â
   Â
   Their  rivalry  eventually led to the rise of fundamentalist Islam and
   the birth of the Al Shabab movement.  As a consequence,  the country
   has become almost ungovernable.
   The  influence  of  religious radicals was expected, according to Said
   Samatar,  a  professor of modern African history at Rutgers University
   in the United States.
   âWhen  people  suffer  badly and live chaotically, as the Somalis have
   been living for the last 20 years, then itâs natural that salvationist
   or messianic movements arise.â
   These  fundamentalists,  Samatar  said,  âpromise  redemption  for the
   Somali  people but they are not redeeming anything -- in fact they are
   wrecking the place.â
   Al  Shababâs  ideology  is  imported  from  Saudi  Arabia and the Gulf
   States,  which  provide the money to support the jihadist movement, he
   said.
   Samatar,  originally from Somalia, said Al Shabab currently occupies a
   large swathe of the country, while the Transitional Federal Government
   controls only part of the city [Mogadishu].
   âThat  situation  is  catastrophic.   Neither  side  can  defeat  the
   other.  It would have been better for the country if one side defeats
   the other.â
   Samatar  suggests that even if Al Shabab did win, its victory would be
   short-lived.
   âAmerica  should  let  Al  Shabab  take  over,  and when they impose a
   barbaric  form of Islam -- the medieval type -- the Somali people will
   chase them out.â
   He  offered  several  reasons  for  the groupâs unpopularity among the
   public:
   Samatar said unlike the jihadists, Somalis have historically practiced
   a mild, mystical form of Islam, Sufiism.
   Also,  he  says,  Somalis are too segmented into clans.  That poses a
   problem  for fundamentalist groups, who need total control, with their
   authority  binding  on  everybody.   âThat canât happen in the Somali
   social context,â he said.
   In  2006,  US-backed  troops  from  Ethiopia  invaded  Somalia to help
   support  a  transition federal government and fight the Islamic Courts
   Union, which held large parts of the country.  The Islamic government
   was driven from power, and the Ethiopians left in 2009.
   Samatar   decried   the  action,  because  âit  made  these  Islamists
   respectable in the eyes of [some] Somalis.â
   He  said the radicals âwere able to present themselves as defenders of
   the  country  from  the  invasion  by Ethiopia, a traditional enemy of
   Somalia.  In fact, that was manna from heaven for the Islamists.â
   Samatar  is  pessimistic  about  the  situation  in his home country.Â
   âThere  is no way forward.  The deadlock in terms of power between Al
   Shabab  and  the  recognized  government  in  Mogadishu  is  likely to
   continue.   Neither  can defeat the other.  I expect more misery and
   more horrors,â he said.

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