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Analyst: AU Panel Likely Last Chance for Embattled Ivorian Leader

   University  of  Abuja Professor Kabiru Mato says the AU Panel visiting
   Ivory Coast Monday will likely demand again that Mr. Gbagbo steps down

   James Butty  February 21, 2011
   Ivory  Coast,  President  Laurent  Gbagbo,  speaks during an exclusive
   interview at his residence, in Abidjan, Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010.

Photo: AP

   Ivory  Coast,  President  Laurent  Gbagbo,  speaks during an exclusive
   interview  at  his  residence, in Abidjan, Sunday, Dec. 26, 2010. West
   African  leaders are giving the man who refuses to leave Ivory Coast's
   presidency  a  final  chance to hand over power and are threatening to
   remove  him  by force if needed, though doubts exist about whether the
   operation could be carried out. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba)

   A  university  professor said the African Union panel of five heads of
   state,  which  arrives  in  Ivory  Coast Monday, will most likely give
   embattled President Laurent Gbagbo the last opportunity to leave power
   honorably.

   Kabiru  Mato,  chair  of  the  political  science  department  at  the
   University  of  Abuja  in  Nigeria,  told  VOA  the message will be no
   different  from  what  Mr.  Gbagbo  had been told before, that he must
   leave power.

   âThe issue here is that, I think, the resolution is that Mr. Gbagbo is
   going  to  be  told once again that âLook, this is the decision of the
   African  Union;  this  is  the position of the international community
   about   this   election   and   no   matter  what  irregularities  and
   abnormalities  that you might be thinking that had been committed, you
   donât  have the public opinion perspective; so, why canât you leave so
   that  we  can  have peace in Ivory Coast?â So, the fundamental issue I
   want  to  make  very clear here is that there is nothing spectacularly
   new that is going to be part of that message,â he said.

   Mato  said the international community, especially the African region,
   is  apparently fed up and agitated and worried about the fact that Mr.
   Gbagbo continues to be recalcitrant.

   He  said  the  African Union was perhaps making this latest attempt to
   give  Mr.  Gbagbo  a  final  opportunity to make an honorable and face
   saving exit.

   âThe  issue  is  that the (African) Union is trying to give Mr. Gbagbo
   the  opportunity  to  agree  to  the  diplomatic and peaceful means of
   resolving the crisis in the Ivory Coast,â Mato said.

   Unfortunately,  Mato  said,  Mr.  Gbagbo  has turned a deaf ear to the
   diplomatic  gestures  of  the  African  Union  and  the  rest  of  the
   international community.

   He  said  it  appears the deployment of a limited military force could
   follow if this latest diplomatic attempt to resolve the impasse fails.

   The  African  Union, the United Nations, and the Economic Community of
   West   African   States   (ECOWAS)   have   all  said  they  recognize
   President-elect  Alassane  Ouattara  as  the  winner  of  the November
   presidential election.

   But,  some  analysts  have  said  they  fear that Mr. Ouattara, if and
   whenever  he takes power, could become a weak president given the fact
   that Ivory Coast appears divided.

   Mato  said  Mr.  Ouattaraâs  first task would be to try to reunite the
   country.

   âWhen  (Mr.)  Ouattara becomes the president, the fundamental thing he
   is  going  to be facing is the issue of trying to reconcile, trying to
   reconstruct,  and  trying  to  rehabilitate  those  who  have been the
   victims  and affected by this long crisis of leadership in Ivory Coast
   since the fall of President Felix Houphouet-Boigny,â Mato said.

   Mato  said  the  Ivory  Coast  leadership impasse could come to an end
   perhaps as early as next month.

   âI  donât  have  any  doubt  about  that. I know itâs just a matter of
   grandstanding.  Itâs  just  a matter of time. I see him getting out of
   the government house in Ivory Coast as soon as possible,â Mato said.

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