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Will New Egyptian Government Pursue Nuclear Weapons?

   André de Nesnera | Washington  February 18, 2011
   Fireworks explode as tens of thousands of Egyptians celebrate the fall
   of  the  regime  of  former  President  Hosni Mubarak, and to maintain
   pressure  on the current military rulers, in Tahrir Square in downtown
   Cairo, Egypt, February 18, 2011

Photo: AP

   Fireworks explode as tens of thousands of Egyptians celebrate the fall
   of  the  regime  of  former  President  Hosni Mubarak, and to maintain
   pressure  on the current military rulers, in Tahrir Square in downtown
   Cairo, Egypt, February 18, 2011

   Analysts  question  whether a new Egyptian government replacing ousted
   President  Hosni  Mubarak would change Cairoâs position of not seeking
   nuclear weapons.

   Egypt  has  two nuclear research reactors located near Cairo. They are
   used  for  peaceful purposes and are under International Atomic Energy
   Agency - or IAEA - safeguards.
   Analysts agree that Egypt tried to acquire nuclear weapons back in the
   1960s,  but  ultimately  decided not to do so because of political and
   economic  reasons.  In  February, 1981, Egypt ratified the Nuclear Non
   Proliferation   Treaty   -   or   NPT   -  the  legal  cornerstone  of
   non-proliferation efforts.

   Open options

   Mark  Fitzpatrick, from Londonâs International Institute for Strategic
   Studies, said Egypt is not trying to become a nuclear weapons state.
   âThe  most  one  could  say  is that Egypt may be desiring to keep its
   options open. And among the Egyptian body politic, there is a point of
   view  expressed  by  several  parties that Egypt should pursue nuclear
   weapons.â
   Fitzpatrick  said  some opposition parties have expressed that view as
   recently as December 2009 in a debate in parliament.
   And what about the position of the Muslim Brotherhood - Egyptâs oldest
   and largest Islamist organization?
   Henry  Sokolski,  Director  of  the  Nonproliferation Policy Education
   Center, said the Brotherhoodâs view is unclear.

   Uncertain intentions

   âRight  now they are saying oh, weâre not interested in them. Not more
   than  two  or three years ago, many of their key spokesmen said it was
   absolutely  critical  to the Egyptian government to get them. My guess
   is  that  their perspective is tactical, to pleasing what might be the
   western  audience,  and  therefore  we  have  to  take seriously their
   earlier  claims and those claims may be the ones that they will revert
   to at some later point,â said Sokolski.
   Some  experts have questioned whether a government replacing President
   Hosni Mubarak might push for a change in Egyptian policy, urging Cairo
   to build nuclear weapons.
   But  former  Defense  Department  official James Russell, now with the
   Naval  Postgraduate  School  in  Monterey,  [CA],  said  there  is one
   overwhelming reason why Egypt will not opt for nuclear weapons.

   Financial constraints

   âThe fact of the matter is, is that Egypt still lacks the money, which
   is  significant,  for  construction  of  even a peaceful nuclear power
   plant  that  would  be  under IAEA oversight," said Russell. "[Nuclear
   power]  plants  cost anywhere between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. And
   this is not money that the Egyptians have.â
   Russell  said  another  reason  is  the  example  of  Iran  - and more
   specifically,  the  international  sanctions imposed on Tehran for its
   alleged nuclear weapons program.
   âEveryone  wants  to  sort  of  pooh-pooh [dismiss] the costs that are
   being  posed  on  the Iranians for this activity that they are engaged
   in.  But  the costs are significant. If you just look, for example, at
   foreign  direct  investments,  itâs  all but dried up. The investments
   that  Iran,  for  example,  needs  in  its upstream gas and oil sector
   development  are just not there. So they are paying significant prices
   for this illicit activity.â

   Nuclear weapons-free zone
   Another  factor  against Egypt acquiring nuclear weapons is that Cairo
   has been the strongest proponent of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the
   Middle East.
   Fitzpatrick said there must be some movement in that direction.
   âSome  in  Egypt  say  that  if  there  is  no  progress  on a nuclear
   weapons-free  zone, that it would give those who want a nuclear weapon
   added ammunition for that position. I think thereâs a certain sense in
   Egypt  that  their  desire  for a nuclear weapons-free region has been
   frustrated  and if they canât get it, maybe they should go a different
   route. Thatâs not the mainstream sentiment in Egypt, but one can sense
   that growing frustration,â said Fitzpatrick.
   Analysts  say  the next test will come next year when an international
   conference will be devoted to the issue of a nuclear weapons free zone
   in the Middle East.
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References

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