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Analyst Sees Nigerian Security Shake-up as Mostly Political

   University  of  Abuja  professor Usman Mohamed says President Jonathan
   may also be trying to solidify his grip on the country's security

   James Butty | Washington, D.C. 09 September 2010

   A  Nigerian  political  analyst told VOA President Goodluck Jonathanâs
   decision  to appoint new security chiefs is motivated more by politics
   than security concerns.

   President Goodluck Jonathan

ASSOCIATED PRESS

   Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan

   Mr. Jonathan Wednesday appointed a new defense chief of staff, as well
   as  new  heads  of the air force, navy, army, police, and intelligence
   services.

   The  move  comes  days after Nigeria's electoral commission solidified
   the  timeline  for  next  yearâs general elections and as Mr. Jonathan
   signaled to party leaders that he intends to stand for election.

   Usman  Mohamed,  professor  of  political science at the University of
   Abuja, said President Jonathan could be trying to solidify his grip on
   the countryâs security ahead of next yearâs elections.

   âThe  change,  I think, has come about very suddenly and unexpected to
   the  country  for  two reasons. The first reason is political, and the
   political  reason  is stronger than the security reason. For political
   reason,  soon  after  the  president  had  announced to the ruling PDP
   (Peopleâs  Democratic  Party)  southern governors that he was going to
   contest,  24 hours after, we saw change in the service chiefs. That is
   very significant because of the election that is coming up,â he said.

   Mohamed  said  security  concerns might have also influenced President
   Jonathanâs  decision,  especially  following  Tuesdayâs  attack  on  a
   northern prison by a radical Islamic sect known as Boko Haram.

   âDue  to  the  attack that was witnessed about three days or four days
   back  in  Bauchi  by  the  Boko  Haram group, there might (be) need to
   reposition  and  strategize  his  service  chiefs.  And, perhaps, that
   brought  about  this  change  at  a  very  critical period that we are
   heading for the election,â Mohamed said.

   But,  he  said  Mr.  Jonathanâs political opponents may not accept the
   explanation  that  the  Bauchi  prison  attack  might  have led to the
   security  changes,  especially  since they were made about four months
   before next Januaryâs general election.

   Nigeria,  which  has  had a history of military coups, has not had one
   for over 16 years.

   Professor  Mohamed  dismissed any suggestion that President Jonathanâs
   decision  to  appoint  new  security  chiefs  might  have also been an
   attempt to avert any possible military coup.

   âWhat  you  say  does  not  have any bearing as of now anyway. This is
   because,  if  you look back, we have had some constitutional crisis of
   succession  soon after of the death of President YarâAdua, even before
   he  died, when he was in hospital. And, that time could have been ripe
   for  the military to strike. But, they didnât strike. So, I think, the
   issue  of  a  coup  is ruled out from the analysis, but it will not be
   total,â Mohamed said.

   He  said  there  has  been  a  disquiet  within  the  ruling PDP about
   President Jonathanâs decision to run in next yearâs election.

   âThere  is  serious  rancor and acrimony, especially from the dominant
   north  that  is  looking  at  the entire contest of the president as a
   betrayal of agreement that has been there in the PDP,â he said.

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