Originally posted by the Voice of America. Voice of America content is produced by the Voice of America, a United States federal government-sponsored entity, and is in the public domain. WikiLeaks Revelations Put Zimbabwe in Jeopardy of Further Instability, says Analyst Liesl Louw-Vaudran says publication of confidential American communications about Zimbabwe âmanna from heavenâ for President Mugabe Darren Taylor | Johannesburg, South Africa 10 December 2010 A leading security analyst based in southern Africa says the spilling of United States government secrets about Zimbabwe by the WikiLeaks organization is âdangerousâ for the region, and could lead to instability and violence ahead of the election Harareâs expected to call next year. âCertainly for southern Africa, the WikiLeaks Zimbabwe revelations are most significant, and I donât think itâs an exaggeration to say they could destabilize Zimbabwe â and thus the region - even further in the months to come,â says Liesl Louw-Vaudran, who works for one of Africaâs most respected security think-tanks, the Institute for Security Studies. Itâs headquartered in Pretoria, South Africa, and has offices throughout the continent. âI am not for one second saying WikiLeaks did not have the right to make the information public; I am merely exploring the possible ramifications now that this information is out there,â she clarifies. ASSOCIATED PRESS Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe, described in leaked cables as "clever," "ruthless," and "a brilliant tactician." WikiLeaks recently began publishing thousands of previously confidential communications between the US State Department in Washington, DC and its embassies around the world. Some of the documents relate to Zimbabwe. The country has been in the throes of political and economic instability for about a decade, as President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have fought a bitter and often violent battle for power. A so-called âunity governmentâ headed by Mr. Mugabe, of the ruling ZANU-PF party, and Mr. Tsvangirai, of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has failed to end violence, corruption and rampant unemployment there. Mugabeâs âammunitionâ The New York Times has published a secret communiqué leaked to WikiLeaks, from former US ambassador to Zimbabwe, Christopher Dell, to Washington in 2007. It reveals Americaâs preference for an end to Mr. Mugabeâs rule, in close cooperation with the MDC. âWe need to keep the pressure on to keep Mugabe off his game and on his back foot, relying on his own shortcomings to do him in,â Dell writes. Louw-Vaudran says, âI do fear that the revelations (are) really going to give ammunition to President Robert Mugabe, especially while we are facing a new election in Zimbabwe next year.â She adds Mr. Mugabe will âobviouslyâ use the information leaked by WikiLeaks as a âpolitical toolâ to further entrench his hold on power. She says itâs now going to be âfar easierâ for Mugabe to âdemonizeâ Tsvangirai as a âpuppet of the Americans.â âWe are sitting with a very tense situation, very delicate, where weâve got a dictator now for the last 25 years here in Africa, absolutely insistent that any opposition to him is being instigated by the West. And now he has that on paper, and that is dangerous,â says Louw-Vaudran. She comments that sheâs âsure Robert Mugabe is putting his feet up late at night and laughing his head off, not quite believing that such a massive boost has been given to him by his arch enemy, America, ahead of an election. Itâs manna from heaven for him!â Louw-Vaudran says âalready the gloatingâ about âDellâs criticisms directed at Tsvangiraiâ and the âvilification and mockeryâ of the MDC leader has started in Zimbabweâs state-owned media. The Herald newspaper, for example, writes of the Dell memo as proof that Tsvangirai and the MDC have grown âfat on the back of engorging the West's filthy lucre over the past decade as Uncle Sam's willing cat paws.â âThe WikiLeaks information has served to make the propaganda that Mugabe has been using all along against his opposition, such as that the US is funding the MDC, so much more credible,â states Louw-Vaudran. âItâs lovely for Mugabe to actually sit back and say, âListen, I told you so â¦ââ US and MDC relationship now âstrainedâ She says âwhatâs also a godsendâ for Mr. Mugabe is the American ambassadorâs âstrongâ criticism of Tsvangirai in the cable leaked to WikiLeaks, and reported by the New York Times. Dell describes Tsvangirai as a âflawed figure, not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment in selecting those around himâ and goes on to write that while the MDC leader is âa brave democratâ and âthe indispensable element for opposition success,â he is âpossibly an albatross around their necks once in powerâ¦.â Dell brands the MDC âfar from idealâ as opposition to ZANU-PF, and says had Washington âhad different partners,â it âcould have achieved moreâ in Zimbabwe. In her reaction to this, Louw-Vaudran comments, âWell, whether itâs the end of Washingtonâs previous very close relationship with the MDC, we canât yet say. But that would certainly be great for Mugabe and ZANU-PF. What we can be certain of is that the relationship between the US and the MDC, in the immediate future, is going to be much more strained, and that must be very pleasing to Mugabe indeed.â She says for âpoor Morgan Tsvangirai,â the spilling of the Dell secret communication to Washington âmust be a low blow; it must really hurt, despite his initial reaction to laugh it off as insignificantâ¦.â In his reaction to the WikiLeaks revelations, the MDC leader has said heâs ânot botheredâ and that they wonât negatively influence his relationship with America. He also claims Dellâs opinions are at odds with those of the majority of Zimbabweans, who voted for Tsvangirai in the 2008 polls â widely believed to have been âstolenâ by ZANU-PF. Included in the cables, criticism of Zimbabwean opposition leader and US partner Morgan Tsvangirai Also in his secret dispatch to Washington, Dell writes âRobert Mugabe has survived for so long because he is more clever and more ruthless than any other politician in Zimbabwe. To give the devil his due he is a brilliant tactician.â Such words, says Louw-Vaudran, give âtremendous encouragement and impetusâ to Zimbabweâs president. âHeâs very proud of that; heâs actually thrilled to be called a shrewd tactician,â she says. âA dangerous secretâ A formerly secret US cable gleaned from WikiLeaks by Britainâs Guardian newspaper reveals that South Africaâs Minister of International Relations, Maite NkoanaâMashabane, refers to Mr. Mugabe as a âcrazy old man.â Louw-Vaudran says this information is âshockingâ in that Nkoana-Mashabane âisnât exactly known for her forthright opinions on foreign affairs ⦠Many people thought President Jacob Zuma appointed her because she would not take a strong stand on controversial issues such as Zimbabwe, because she has ⦠very little experience [in foreign affairs].â Nkoana-Mashabaneâs statement will âcertainly not please Mugabe,â says Louw-Vaudran. âThat certainly wonât be very good for South Africa thatâs trying to mediate (in Zimbabwe) but apparently with very little success. Mugabe still runs rings around President Jacob Zuma who he considers to be a new boy on the block.â Liesl Louw-Vaudran of South Africa's Institute for Security Studies D. Taylor Liesl Louw-Vaudran of South Africa's Institute for Security Studies But she adds that the South African ministerâs disparaging comment about the Zimbabwean leader will âencourage people who have been despairing at South Africaâs supposed role as Mugabeâs lapdog.â Louw-Vaudran maintains, though, that the Nkoana-Mashabane comment is âa dangerous secret to reveal given the type of character that weâre dealing withâ in Mr. Mugabe. âIn southern Africa and Zimbabwe, those little gossip statements and judgments of people are not just innocent statements; people could die because of the sensitivities of this one or that one. Really, we canât take it too lightly,â she insists. Louw-Vaudran says the âconsequencesâ of the revelation of âwhat the Americans really think of Tsvangirai, and their apparent ongoing support for the MDC,â are going to be with southern Africa âfor quite some time, and could prove to be very badâ for some people. âAlready we see Mugabeâs attitude to the MDC hardening even more, with him no longer attending meetings with Tsvangirai and moaning even more about how heâs being forced to be part of an âillegalâ unity government.â Louw-Vaudran says the WikiLeaks revelations have âopened up a fresh and possibly very negative angleâ to Zimbabwean politics, at a time when Zimbabweans are âgrowing increasingly nervousâ about the future. .